Fossil Fuel shortage

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  • Sat, Dec 01, 2012 - 11:14pm



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    Also very well said, but

Also very well said, but again, nobody has a crystal ball!! Sorry, that’s reality!

  • Sun, Dec 02, 2012 - 02:47am


    Aaron M

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    Wroth,No, I agree – there is


No, I agree – there is always a possibility that something will come up and solve our problems. It happened before with oil. It’s not impossible for it to happen again. It’s just tremendously unlikely.

My trade for most of the last decade has been meteorology. I’m not very good at it, but I can tell you a couple things:
1. No one is, or would be without the help of technology
2. When we suspect something good, it’s better to under-promise and over-deliver.
3. When we suspect something bad, it’s beter to over-estimate and under-deliver

What I mean by this is that if I think a storm is going to come in with winds at 20 knots and 3 days of rain, I ratchet up the outlook to make it worse within reasonability. When I think it’s going to be nice out, I give forecasts that reflect “decent” weather conditions. 

My reasoning? People. do. not. plan. for. the. worst.

Good God, if they did we wouldn’t be looking at such a serious dilemma. While forecasting the future of geopolitics is not the same as meteorology, they’re both tremendously stochastic, and probabilities can be narrowed down using some very coarse tools; Principles, continuity, regime influence, local effects.

…While I know there is no mathematical correlation, I do believe that these same principles apply.

Through human history, we have only had one instance where technology rescued us from the uglier portions of “descent with modification”; and arguably, that technology brought us to the verge of full tilt nuclear holocaust, on the tail end of a holocaust.

For this reason, I put humans squarely in the “predictably violent” category with regards to principles.
As for continuity, unless some massive change occurs, we can follow present course and heading to fiscal catastrophe and subsequent depression. I believe our local effects (nationally) favor balkanization, if not civil war. From there, it’s anyone’s guess.

But, if someone were to ask me to forecast where fossil fuel shortages will take us, I’d reply with:
Where we’re already heading, but faster.



  • Tue, Oct 21, 2014 - 06:37am


    Joan Morris

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    Fossil fuels are indeed of

Fossil fuels are indeed of much importance to man. We depend on fossil fuels to heat our homes, run our vehicles, power industry and manufacturing, and provide us with electricity. Eventually, the degree to which we depend on fossil fuels will have to lessen as the planet’s known supplies diminish, the difficulty and cost of tapping remaining reserves increases, and the effect of their continued use on our planet grows more alarming. But shifting to new energy sources will take time.

  • Fri, Oct 31, 2014 - 09:09am



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    If we move fast to

If we move fast to re-localize production and proceed with the renewable revolution, we could end the 21st century with a largely carbon-free economy, putting an end to climate change and averting resource wars. We would have healthier food and a safer, more resilient and equitable world.

you might want to check out this article:

fossil fuel shortage: do mushrooms hold the key

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