Five reasons why the market may crash this Fall!
1) High Frequency Trading Programs account for 70% of market volume
2) Even counting HFTP volume, market volume has contracted the most since 1989
3) This Latest Market Rally is a Short-Squeeze and Nothing More
4) 13 Million Americans Exhaust Unemployment by 12/09
5) The $1 QUADRILLION Derivatives Time Bomb
- Alt – A’s and Option Arms 1.5 trillion dollar time bomb
- CRE 3.5 Trillion dollar conservatively speaking
- Banks – With 5 trillion in real estate coming they will have to adjust their capitol
- Tax Revenues – With 5 trillion in real estate coming….
- Currency Crisis: Deficit – monetising almost 1.5 trillion of debt that isn’t being bought by borrowers (Of course a flight to (preceived) safety could kick this can down the road)
- Currency Crisis: Systemic risk from former Soviet Block
- Currency Crisis: BRIC’s (Brazil, Russia, India, China) create a new basket of reserve currency
- Good bad or indiferent, (as a plan) adding 1.6 trillion or .7 trillion or .9 trillion (my guess more than the three together) to pay for health care. We take in 2 trillion and spend 4 trillion now. I haven’t seen cash flows so I can’t say how much of the new plan could be deferrerd.
- Good bad or indifferent, (as a plan) Cap and Trade – another multi trillion dollar amount, a lot of which will be passed to the middle class in taxes, not to mention restrictions on re-tooling farm and other equipment
That is my list of 9. Not certain if it will be this fall or the coming spring/summer. Take care
Davos, Shame you didn’t just come up with 8. 8 plus 5 = 13…ooo-errr! Or, perhaps another 661. 661 plus 5 = 666!