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Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource Limitations

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  • Fri, Jan 23, 2009 - 08:09pm

    #1
    switters

    switters

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    Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource Limitations

Gail the Actuary, one of my favorite writers at The Oil Drum, recently published a Financial Forecast for 2009 with a review of how we got to where we are now.  It’s one of the best synopses of our predicament that I’ve seen in a while.  Gail is one of those few who comprehends the relationship between economy, environment and energy.

  • Fri, Jan 23, 2009 - 10:42pm

    #2
    SteveS

    SteveS

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: (and compare to 2008)

Interesting article. I always like to check how well a forecaster did for the previous year. In this case http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3382. Probably the most accurate forecast of last year I have seen!

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 01:32am

    #3

    scbissler

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

I was also very impressed with her 2008 forecast.  I might have to print her  2008 and 2009 forecasts and show them to folks that I’m trying to persuade to take these issues seriously.

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 01:42am

    #4
    switters

    switters

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

[quote=scbissler]I was also very impressed with her 2008 forecast.  I might have to print her  2008 and 2009 forecasts and show them to folks that I’m trying to persuade to take these issues seriously.[/quote]

That’s a great idea.

As I said in the original post, Gail is one of the few writers (Chris
M. is another) that comprehends the full scope of the challenges we’re
facing and how they interrelate.  That explains her success so far with
predictions and, as you’ve both pointed out, gives us good cause to pay
attention to her predictions for 2009 and beyond.

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 01:55am

    #5

    Ray Hewitt

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

The chart on this link give a good visual indicator of how badly the major banks are insolvent.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SXoel6A1A-I/AAAAAAAAFfM/KhBs_vgFVes/s1600-h/bank-circles.png

I wouldn’t be surprised if Obama calls a bank holiday or something like that in the next few months. It’s that bad.

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 01:08pm

    #6

    Ray Hewitt

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

As I said in the original post, Gail is one of the few writers (Chris
M. is another) that comprehends the full scope of the challenges we’re
facing and how they interrelate. 

Chris M. and a small army of Austrian Theorists like myself who saw this building up decades ago. Chris K. is probably not familiar with them.

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 03:23pm

    #7

    Nichoman

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

Mentioned this article with some bottom line take home points w/r/t Gail’s article in forums at the link below…

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/oil-drum-2009-economicenergy-forecast-gail-tverberg-aka-gail-actuary/11226

This past Thursday…Gerald Celente issued a "CODE RED Economy In Collapse – Drastic Actions To Be Taken" 

which can be read here…

http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2009/01/code-red-economy-in-collapse-drastic.html

Does anyone know how often he ever has put out a CODE RED?

There is nothing I see in the global financial/economic trends that doesn’t suggest we are in for accelerating bad times.

 

Nichoman  

 

 

 

 

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 03:57pm

    #8
    switters

    switters

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

[quote=Ray Hewitt]

As I said in the original post, Gail is one of the few writers (Chris
M. is another) that comprehends the full scope of the challenges we’re
facing and how they interrelate. 

Chris M. and a small army of Austrian Theorists like myself who saw this building up decades ago. Chris K. is probably not familiar with them.
[/quote]

Actually, Ray, I’m talking about people who understand how environmental and energy issues are related to our economic problems. The Austrian theorists you refer to who comprehend the economics, but are clueless about energy and how energy drives economy, don’t fit this category.

 

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 03:59pm

    #9
    switters

    switters

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

[quote=Nichoman]

Mentioned this article with some bottom line take home points w/r/t Gail’s article in forums at the link below…

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/oil-drum-2009-economicenergy-forecast-gail-tverberg-aka-gail-actuary/11226

This past Thursday…Gerald Celente issued a "CODE RED Economy In Collapse – Drastic Actions To Be Taken" 

which can be read here…

http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2009/01/code-red-economy-in-collapse-drastic.html

Does anyone know how often he ever has put out a CODE RED?

There is nothing I see in the global financial/economic trends that doesn’t suggest we are in for accelerating bad times.

 

Nichoman  

[/quote]

I don’t know the answer to your question regarding Celente’s CODE RED, but I do know that he’s been wrong more often than he’s been right.  That’s not to say I disagree with all of his predictions (I don’t), but that I find Gail’s to be more credible and sound.

  • Sat, Jan 24, 2009 - 04:17pm

    #10
    Farmer Brown

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    Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource …

Chris K,

Thanks for the link/post.  

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