Exponential growth in COVID deaths

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   10 posts
  • Thu, Nov 26, 2020 - 06:07am

    #1
    Merle Hertzler

    Merle Hertzler

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 15 2009

    Posts: 13

    count placeholder2

    Exponential growth in COVID deaths

I have done a calculation in the rise of deaths by COVID in the last 3 weeks. I find that 11,125 have died of COVID in the United States in the last 7 days. Three weeks ago 5892 died in a 7 day period. That represents a compound rate of 250% per month.

I calculate about 40,000 will die in November. Let’s say that the current rate of exponential increase continues. Then we would have 100,000 deaths in December, 250,000 deaths in January, and 600,000 deaths in February.

Of course a lot of things could change that. Better safety practices could lower the rate. Holiday gatherings could increase the rate. Colder weather could increase the rate. Increasing herd immunity could decrease the rate. Etc.

Most importantly, this exponential increase would overstress the hospitals. And we could have rates much higher than these figures if the health care system degrades.

The increases appear to be very strong in the northern states. This indicates that cold weather is driving this increase.

It looks to me like we are in big trouble unless we drastically increase our compliance with basic measures like wearing masks and social distancing.

 

 

  • Thu, Nov 26, 2020 - 10:40am

    #2
    Kathy

    Kathy

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 21 2020

    Posts: 87

    count placeholder2

    Exponential growth in COVID deaths

Or you could make the argument that masks are making it worse,  now that the masks aren’t being sterilized in hot cars.  Or maybe masks really don’t make a difference one way or the other and it all comes down to vitamin D.

Ventilation and vitamin D are probably the easy/effective solutions but strangely no one is talking about them.  And if people want to wear mask and social distance that is fine too, but obviously it isn’t working very well so why do the “leaders” keep beating the dead horse?

  • Fri, Nov 27, 2020 - 04:53am   (Reply to #2)

    #3
    Merle Hertzler

    Merle Hertzler

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 15 2009

    Posts: 13

    count placeholder0

    Exponential growth in COVID deaths

I don’t see that it is obvious that masks are not working well. Remember that COVID was doubling every 4 days last spring. If I had a choice between doubling every 4 days and doubling every month, I would take doubling every month. Part of the credit for that slowing of the growth rate goes to current mask and social distancing practices.

But what we are doing is not enough. We need to get the rate to decline, not go up. If it goes up exponentially, we are in trouble.

 

  • Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - 06:34am

    #4
    tbp

    tbp

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 12 2020

    Posts: 830

    count placeholder2

    Reply To: Exponential growth in COVID deaths

The increases appear to be very strong in the northern states. This indicates that cold weather is driving this increase.

It looks to me like we are in big trouble unless we drastically increase our compliance with basic measures like wearing masks and social distancing.

Have you been living under a rock? You still don’t know about vitamin D??? See all the proof at https://c19vitamind.com/

And watch Chris Martenson’s latest vitamin D video:

Part of the credit for that slowing of the growth rate goes to current mask and social distancing practices.

Only a tiny, enslaving, part. Anyone pushing masks without mentioning the effective treatments is either a clueless fool or a crook with an agenda.

  • Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - 07:24am

    #5
    Merle Hertzler

    Merle Hertzler

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 15 2009

    Posts: 13

    count placeholder0

    Exponential growth in COVID deaths

Uh yes, I do know about vitamin D. I have taken it regularly for the last 3 months, so that I am better prepared if I do get COVID.

But I disagree that anyone who mentions masks without mentioning vitamin D is a clueless fool or a crook.

  • Sat, Nov 28, 2020 - 11:09am

    #6
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 986

    count placeholder0

    Exponential growth in COVID deaths

merle, I agree with tb.   You have to mention or push available treatments as well.  Basically , you are saying i care enough to encumber you , but i really dont care about life, just money.   You cant push just masks unless you are clueless  or a crook.      Its really A or B..   I think you are probably thinking its more A.     But yes if you are an authority.. and doing only masks,  you are either A or B.. And you would have to not care , if you are clueless, in general..   To be an authority and pretend all those other treatments do not exist.., can really only matter to one thing.. you want people to die , and you want to  make money.    or rather steal it.

  • Sun, Nov 29, 2020 - 07:38am

    #7
    Merle Hertzler

    Merle Hertzler

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 15 2009

    Posts: 13

    count placeholder1

    Reply To: Exponential growth in COVID deaths

Please, please, lets stick with the issues and refrain from ad hominem attacks on other people.

Calling each other clueless fools and crooks has no place in respectful conversation.

Telling other members that they do not care about life is just plain rude. Surely the person who wrote that must know that I do indeed care about life.

We are all here to talk about things, respectfully. Yes?  Please show respect for other people here. Enough said.

The purpose of my post was to show the rapid rise in the rates of COVID deaths, doubling in less than 4 weeks. If it continues to double at that rate, hospitals will be completely overwhelmed come January.

Yes, of course, I am for all reasonable measures to slow the rate. I don’t want deaths to increase, and I don’t want to do damaging measures that hurt the economy worse than necessary.

I think everybody should wear a mask in public where practical.

People should use social distancing as practical.

People should be sure they have adequate Vitamin A, Vitamin C, and Zinc.

When I list solutions I am not saying the list is exhaustive. I am not claiming to be an authority. I am in no way pretending that other measures do not exist, simply because they are not on the list.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 10:43am

    #8
    Base12

    Base12

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 02 2020

    Posts: 41

    count placeholder0

    Reply To: Exponential growth in COVID deaths

You cant just extrapolate the past into the future.  Daily cases have already peaked in the North Central US.  The supposed epicenter of the winter surge. Despite wildly different policies and behavior in each state the peaks all fell within one week of each other.

  • November 14 – South Dakota
  • November 15 – Iowa
  • November 16 – Illinois
  • November 17 – North Dakota and Kansas
  • November 18 – Wisconsin
  • November 19 – Missouri
  • November 20 – Minnesota and Nebraska

Virus gonna do what virus gonna do.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 11:19am   (Reply to #7)

    #9

    Oliveoilguy

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 29 2012

    Posts: 925

    count placeholder0

    Don’t forget Vitamin D3

Merle….

After judiciously following the content presented by Chris over the last 9 months and all the comments ….my distilled understanding is that D3, Zinc, and Quercetin are the most important supplements.

  • Tue, Dec 01, 2020 - 11:51am

    #10
    cgarcia

    cgarcia

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 02 2020

    Posts: 66

    count placeholder0

    Exponential growth in COVID deaths

Even if deaths are rising exponentially, less than 1% dies from it.

No big deal. And I’m not being cruel. No big deal.

Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 10 total)

Login or Register to post comments