Ebola Outbreak 2014
Always good to be aware of and consider other (potentially more) plausible explanations for data.
Appreciate your keeping up with the stats. The media has gone on to the next sound bite, but this is still an important issue.
The commander of U.S. forces deployed to an Ebola outbreak in West Africa says troops are finishing much of their work in the country and will expect new direction by month’s end.
Seven Ebola treatment units have been turned over to Liberian officials, and another 10 will be finished by the end of December, said Maj. Gen. Gary Volesky, the joint force commander for Operation United Assistance. Troops are still training local health care workers and performing lab work to diagnose the disease — tasks increasingly assumed by U.S. and international aid workers.
Good news indeed.
Looks like doubling time in Liberia is now more than 2 months, while doubling time in Sierra Leone and Guinea is about a month and a half. Thats a massive improvement over the 3 week doubling time we were looking at in September.
yes, I agree. The September situation was 1 1/2 years to 100% worldwide infection (if things continues as they had). Currently, infection totality appears to be 5 years. However, that is if the reports are modestly accurate.
The WHO has been saying that they think Liberia has bust been unabne to report cases. In which case the year and a half COULD be (but probably isn’t) still on.
Still, the thing that scares me most is the initial part of a region’s curve, doubling every 3-5 days.
Interesting tidbit from PARADE magazine.
By Marilyn vos Savant:
Q:Why do so many people seem to fear Ebola more than heart disease or the flu, when they’re far more likely to die of the latter two diseases? — T. R., Albany, New York
A: People don’t fear that they are more likely to die of Ebola than heart disease or the flu. Instead, they fear that an epidemic might start on our shores, and if they contract Ebola, they are far more likely to die immediately (heart disease is slow-moving and treatable) and less likely to survive a bout of the illness (the death rate from the flu is far lower). One cannot disparage people who fear Ebola “more than heart disease or the flu” by employing what amounts to a misapplication of grammar, at best. At worst, the analogy is just plain bad logic or an effort to make average Americans look dumb. I can assure you they are not.