Developing Herd Immunity: Now would be the best time?
Considering all the events in the news, the apparent reduction in the virus or at least in the news cycle, the fact that it is summertime, etc. I have started thinking that perhaps the current method of dealing with the virus is flawed.
In the Northern Hemisphere is is summer. Right now we can get the most vegetables, the most fruits, the most berries. Blueberries, Raspberries, Strawberries, Cherries, Apples, Pears, you get the idea. Basically all of the things with the most nutritional benefit are available right now. We are probably at our peak Vitamin D levels for the year right now.
UV Radiation is at the peak right now. People are outdoors being physical. Basically We are all at our best on average immunity wise right now.
So, given the above, it might be really the best time to stop most virus countermeasures and give our country and all countries in the Northern Hemisphere the chance to build some herd immunity. The more this can happen before next winter the better, imho.
- If there is to be any kind of second wave then better to get as much immunity developed now than later.
- Our bodies are strongest now, so now is when we can best overcome it safely
- One key thing that has been promulagated is that a key element of the severity of the virus depends on the innoculum level. In other words what your initial exposure level is when you get infected. In the summer everything puts this virus at it’s lowest level of threat. UV hits door handles and kills it, etc. Higher temps kill it, etc. So, any kind of surface exposure is likely to be at lower levels than in colder months. Furthermore, because people who do get sick are more likely to have less severe cases now and they will therefore be spreading at most likely lower levels too. Basically, you want the lowest possible exposure level, but possible you do want to get some exposure to develop immunity in your own body.
- I still think masks make sense in close proximity to others because they are the best defense against a large initial exposure to the virus, which I see as the most dangerous. But, everything else that prevents low levels of exposure might be counterproductive to building herd immunity.
- We all need to eat, and that depends on the economy. We need, We must get the economy going.
- I have been in a state of flux regarding my view of the virus as a threat right now. I still think it would be bad to get a big dose of exposure. It seems to be weakening and that is great. We will certainly see if there is some huge jump in cases due to all the riots and beach party events that have happened, but perhaps we won’t.
As far as countermeasures I would maintain, they would be these:
- Masks: Yes.
- Social Distancing: Big distances only for those at high risk. I would still avoid crowds and crowded spaces, but I would not avoid going doing any normal kinds of activities like shopping, etc.
- I would avoid staying indoors with lots of A/C for long periods. I would keep the AC set at higher temps. You need to stay warm to maintain peak immunity. AC creates an environment that helps the virus.
- Surfaces: I would wash your hands, and try to keep surfaces clean, but I think we can back off treating everything like it needs extreme sanitation anymore.
- Travel: I would say get out and travel. Practice normal traveling sanitation, and don’t hang around sick people, but otherwise get out there and get the economy going.
- Eating out: I still am leary of eating things that are cold that might have been contaminated, but hot things should be ok. I would still maintain some caution here, because I can imagine if you eat a salad that someone sneezed all over that might be too large of an intial exposure to risk. We want initial exposure to be low.
In any case, people can choose their own risk level, and these are just my ruminations after my obsessive focus on this virus has abated somewhat. Low exposure level is key. We want just enough exposure to build immunity. Perhaps this is one area that researchers should be focusing on, what is the optimum level of exposure to develop immunity and not get very sick?
I could be wrong. Now might be the best time to try to keep everything tightened down to eliminate this virus, but that does not seem to be happening. It is still spreadong nationwide and worldwide, and therefore it will be back probably. It it comes back we will want some immunity. In any case, I don’t see it as nearly the threat that I saw it as a few months ago. What do you guys think?
Perhaps this is one area that researchers should be focusing on, what is the optimum level of exposure to develop immunity and not get very sick?
I would love any scientists or doctors to way in on that statement.