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Davos

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  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 01:00pm

    #1

    M.E.

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    Davos

Davos, we miss you.  We know you are reading all the posts and doing everything in your power not to reply.  Your fingers tremble above your keyboard.  Your right arm darts uncontrollably to your dying mouse which now has grip marks at its neck.  There are 10″ scratches across your screen and your chair is kicked back behind you as you kneel while reading, coughing, twitching.

In this thread, please post questions, intriguing comments and unfamiliar statistics about GDP, debt and the pros and cons of storing 1,000 lbs of hamburger so that we might lure Davos back into the riptide of the CM forums.

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 01:33pm

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Davos Come Back!

Davos….please come back….its so freaking boring here without you.

I was so wrong with my criticisms of your posts. I’m an idiot, please forgive me.

This will be my final post until you come back.*  (Is that cheering that I hear?)

Could I entice you back with this?:

 

THE ONLY THING WORSE THAN A BULL? AN INFLATIONIST BEAR

A lot of investors and pundits have been and remained bearish throughout the course of the last few years.  Within this bear camp there have been two distinct groups – the deflationists and the inflationists.  The market action in the last few weeks has shown one of these two groups to be only marginally better than a full blown permabull.  Since the recent downturn began on April 26th an inflationist portfolio has actually performed worse than a standard 60/40 stock/bond portfolio.

Obviously, there is no standard inflation or deflation portfolio, but the general claims from the inflationists have been that the next big downturn would be the result of a crushing debt burden from a U.S. government that has spent too much and printed more money than the economy can bear.  This would all result in the demise of the dollar, spiking interest rates, soaring gold prices, soaring hard assets and soaring commodities.   Since the recent downturn began on April 26th a simple inflation portfolio that was evenly short trade weighted US Dollars, short US Treasuries, long gold, long commodities (GS Commodity Index), and long oil has returned -9.29%.   An aggressive gold bug portfolio (50% gold) has done better though still performed poorly over the last few weeks with a -3.75% total return.  A lazy stock/bond portfolio has actually outperformed BOTH portfolios with a -3.6% return.  Meanwhile, a portfolio positioned for deflation has returned +6.75% over the last month.  Even the ultimate deflationary portfolio (100% cash) has outperformed.

The overwhelming majority of bears have been expecting an inflationary period on the back of the out of control “printing” by the Fed.  But just as in 2008, this inflationary strategy has been fantastically wrong.  If you’re not familiar with monetary operations and the resulting impact on the economy then your analysis and portfolio performance has been entirely off the mark.  The inability to connect the dots and understand the true underlying fundamentals in the economy has been a very destructive lesson in being bearish.  In fact, you would practically have been better off just being a full blown bull….

 

Thats right, this guy just called you worse than a perma-bull….OMG, are you going to let that stand?

In all seriousness, I really do miss your input buddy. Please reconsider your read-only-mode.

All the best….Jeff

 

*Unless of course the market really tanks hard.

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 04:44pm

    #3
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Davos

MaryEllen thanks for starting this thread.  Come on Davos I have been going through withdrawals from your posts. Seriously you add a great dimension to this site. We look like we might be closer to a tipping point & your input is needed….besides I get such a laugh at the adjectives you use LOL. Maria Barderwhatever from CNBS wants you back also….

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 05:27pm

    #4
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Davos

Maria could raise the dead.

Thanks for those charts, JAG.

My own little corner of the world shows those two unimportant inflation index items, food and energy, keep rising, however….

SG

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 06:30pm

    #5
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Hugh Hendry: “I Would Recommend You Panic”

One more enticement to get Davos to engage:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I

Hendry goes Davos on the egghead!

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 08:39pm

    #6
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Davos

Great find JAG on the Hendry video. WOW thought Hugh was going to have to call for the ref on that other guy…..HEY WATCH YOUR rhetoric???? Really what did Hugh say that wasn’t true?

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 08:53pm

    #7
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Davos

What’d I miss?  Where did Davos go?

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 09:32pm

    #8
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Hugh Hendry: “I Would Recommend You Panic”

[quote=JAG]

Hendry goes Davos on the egghead!

[/quote]

Oh man, it does my heart good to see a Scotsman go upside the brow of some dunderhead with a verbal claymore (sword, that is — http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claymore ).  Reminds me of George Galloway in fronta Congress back in ’05.  

Ach, mon! — Sager (whose paternal great-granddad was a Scot.  A total bounder and ne’er do well, but a Scot.)

  • Thu, May 27, 2010 - 09:38pm

    #9
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: Davos

[quote=idoctor]

Great find JAG on the Hendry video. WOW thought Hugh was going to have to call for the ref on that other guy…..HEY WATCH YOUR rhetoric???? Really what did Hugh say that wasn’t true?

[/quote]

Great Hendry, Great Scott!!!  

Looks like he struck a nerve in the ole professor there, hilarious!!!!

  • Sat, May 29, 2010 - 06:50am

    #10
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Don’t take the bait, Davos

Davos,

I miss you too, and I applaud your loyal friends who have created this thread as a sort of tribute to your great contributions to this site over the years.

Having said that, don’t take the bait! The circumstances that caused you to feel you needed to take a break from this site have gotten much worse, not better, since you called time out and decided to take a break. As you know from our e-mail exchanges, I considered following you to the exits and taking my own break from the rapid quality deterioration here, and I probably should have done so. It gets worse day by day.

Enjoy the well deserved time off. I’ll probably be joining you soon.

Best,

Erik

 

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