Collapse scenario(s)?

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  • Wed, May 13, 2009 - 10:48pm

    #11
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I think the wild card in this is what will happen when people loose their vices, there are a lot of people who fall into Plickety Cat’s 50% who are weak, often they are manipulated by the "bad tribe".  My primary thought here is drugs, what happens when dealers can no longer supply, do they loose their power will this black market continue to function.  In a fast collapse such as Katrina there is no time for adjustment but what about a slow collapse, will black market organizations gain strength?

In the circles I travel in I can say with confidence that well over 50% of the people fall into the good camp and the percent soundly in the bad group is small as it stands today.  I see that California is talking about letting 38,000 people out of state lockup, that could change the picture quite a bit.  Plickety Cat mentioned people who are "morally vague" being an asset to the the good tribe but I believe there are plenty of people with "a strong sense of justice" who by nature are proactive and willing to take care of business.  In the above post (nickbret) did not leave much room for doubt that this is his sentiment as well.  I guess what you have to offer will determine what kind of place you can find for yourself in a new world.  It seems to me that things are moving slow enough to let people prepare themselves, the trouble I am having is determining what degree of collapse we may see.

  • Wed, May 13, 2009 - 11:44pm

    #12
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Thanks everyone for your positive examples that have lifted my spirit. I had heard of Cuba but not seen detail of what was done so that is particually encouraging thanks Chris. So many examples of community pulling together seem to have a pivot point, a recognised event that precipitates a creative cooperative response.

Until the current ‘economic crisis’ I had held the view that the worst scenario was that we continue as we were. More people with lower expectations, all resources increasingly threatened but not extinguished. Then I started to think we would see a recognisable event such as a banking holiday. Maybe some or one of the others identified by mpelchat above.

I don’t know much of the history of life in Finnland but I see a film that depicts a very unpleasant reality but I see no identified crisis. Here at CM, many of us seem to be waiting for some identifiable crisis (TSHTF). I am not in the US but much of the information coming to this site is about the US and very little of it is good. The numbers of unemployed, those who no longer live in their homes and all the other numbers that often represent various degrees of human misery. Peoples expectations forced lower by family level circumstances.

Leon (SPM) adds his voice to those that feel we may not see a TSHTF event or may see a number of them but they may not attract the significance of TSHTF. Already you have seen the values on which your/ our society was built destroyed almost overnight by those with power. I wonder if there are already places like that depicted by the Finnish film presently forming all over the US. They might/ must already be increasing at a concerning rate. What if they slowly become the accepted and expected new way of life.

Has TSHTF already and because there is no public perception of a single event to tie it to, there has been little or no boost to community?

Don

 

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 01:56am

    #13
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Here is a video I found entertaining Don. Mostly because of the guy, though I’m not sure if he is finnish or not, could be. Whats the name of the video you are referring too?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZpabtuHUVY

 

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 02:04am

    #14
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I prefer the term "moral flexibility" myself (how’s that for a weasely euphemism?)

Really though, it’s much more a matter of determining where your priorities lie more than changing or suspending one’s moral values. We all at various times suffer from cognitive dissonance by holding to two or more moral values that happen to conflict with each other in special situations, so we have to set priorities (even though we sometimes don’t realize that we’re doing it). For example one of my personal rules to live by is to not harm others mentally, emotionally, or physically…. but a number of other things can take priority over that, such as defense of self or of others. So when I hear morally "vague" or "flexible" in the context of some percentage of people within a good community, I tend to think more of people who are mentally prepared and/or willing to make tough choices, know how to manage their emotions so they don’t interfere with making quick or hard decisions, and/or are comfortable listening to and acting on their instincts when threatened. I have no illusions of being any kind of bad-ass, but I know what’s important to me and I’ve found on rare occasions a bit of ruthlessness and cold logic become very useful.

Getting away from that tangent, though, I think there will be enough good communities out there (even in the cities!) that most people will at least have a CHANCE at a fulfilling life. It may require moving elsewhere in one’s state or country (maybe outside of one’s country in extreme cases) and may not be as easy in some ways as it once was, but that doesn’t mean it’ll be a bad life. That reference to 90’s Cuba that Chris made is an excellent example. There’s no reason we won’t see a lot of that kind of community transition, and even some of the places that start out as dismally as in the Finnish film portrays will find the will to change into better communities. There will be predators and leeches and some psychopaths to be sure (I could include government on that list but I would be repeating myself…), but as Plickety mentioned there’s seldom any kind of long-term cooperation between those people, and close-knit communities will be tough nuts for those people to crack. So to everyone who’s worried about where we’re all heading, just do your best to find or create that kind of community and realize that in itself will make all the problems and worries smaller and more manageable

– Nickbert

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 03:10am

    #15
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

[quote=SPM]

Here is a video I found entertaining Don. Mostly because of the guy, though I’m not sure if he is finnish or not, could be. Whats the name of the video you are referring too?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZpabtuHUVY

 

[/quote]

 

The guy in the video is Norwegian, not Finnish… (same diff). The video link is actually a repost of this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVnnDTgVpTI

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 03:12am

    #16
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Thanks Leon (SPM)

I got a really good laugh from your video but felt a bit uncomfortable toward the end. Because many of us are on the same path to oblivion even though we don’t live in the US. If monsanto have their way they won’t need fema or any other mechanism to drastically reduce population. 

The Finnish film is called Joki which is translated to English as ‘the river’ it was made in 2001 by Jamo Lampela.

Good observations and advice Nickbert. In the film one child character was portrayed as a hero in his concern and dedication to address the attempted suicide. The trouble was that I was left with the suspicion that he would grow to be just like almost every other adult in his environment and that worse still, suicide was the best choice for the desperate mother.

Don

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 03:51am

    #17
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Cuba is a fascinating example. They did have a few things working in their favor, e.g. a fairly lush, tropical climate facilitating year-round food production, as well as a very high standard of education and research (within fields relevant for food production). More temperate zones need to worry about solutions for food security and shelter/heating during winter months, but options are available. 

For example, I think permaculture (which is mentioned in the video) offers hope for most areas. Studies indicate there is considerable potential for increasing productivity per acre by adopting permaculture principles (e.g. so-called "forest gardens", using companion planting of mutually beneficial species, perennial plants, flowers to attract pollinators and fight pests, closed loop systems to minimize waste and return yields to the system as compost, etc.). We need to stop defining "productivity" in terms of output per person working the land, and instead think of output per acre. We also have to value long-term continued sustainability as opposed to short-term yields. We have a shortage of quality topsoil and fossil fuel based fertilizers, not of quality workers. With more people on the land working according to sound principles, we can restore soil quality, increase yield and move in the direction of more sustainable food production.

For anyone unfamiliar with, but curious about, permaculture, look up David Holmgren, Bill Mollison or Geoff Lawton. In Australia, but also elsewhere, there are groups hosting so-called permablitzes, where they transform someone’s backyard to a a permaculture garden. A designer will come to your house and make an initial plan, and then a few weeks later, a group of volunteers will provide the workforce and in one day do all the initial work getting the garden started. They’ll also host permaculture workshops during the day. To qualify for a visit to your house, you first have to participate as a volunteer in three permablitzes at someone else’s place. (Look up http://www.permablitz.net for an example. Kind of cool.)

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 12:01pm

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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

erm… I see now there’s a separate thread devoted entirely to agriculture and permaculture. I guess I should have looked around a little bit more before posting 🙂

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 03:24pm

    #19
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I think that some cities will actually support thriving communities. New York is a good example of this already – each borough has it’s own character and fierce loyalties. I think this is likely to continue when things deteriorate. It’s just important to remember that the population of a large city is too big to create and manage as a single community, so it’s likely to break up into smaller villages that are loosely federated. Hopefully, this doesn’t result in territorial battles and skirmishes over dwindling resources. That’s what would concern me most about trying to ride all this out in the middle of a large city. Visions of "Escape from New York" and "Escape from LA" keep going through my mind. Of course, Snake Plissken (the main character) is a pretty good example of a "morally vague" individual working for the "greater good". There are two television series that I think portray a reasonably believable post-TSHTF life — "Jeremiah" and "Jericho".

Maybe I’m a little reluctant to trust other’s sense of moral justice because I’ve seen it go very very wrong. I just feel safer trusting people who aren’t as emotionally attached when it comes to making ethical decisions. I don’t think that someone necessarily has to be moral in order to be "good" or be a force of good… it’s all a matter of how they chose to act and behave. I’ve known plenty of moral people who thought they were good, and fit every textbook definition of an upstanding person, but their actions and behaviors were definitely questionable. That’s one thing all of us in our transitioned communities are going to have to keep in mind… don’t become judgmental and self-righteous or else we’ll end up right back in the land of vendetta and Jihad. While I have no problem dropping an immediate threat where it stands, I have to strongly convinced that it is a threat before I take action. If someone shows up on my farm and aggressively tries to take something by force, then they are a threat; but if someone sneaks onto my property to steal some potatoes to feed his family, he’s not a threat… he’s someone who needs help and I’ll work with him to solve the problem. It’s in those gray areas where I find social justice fails us and where we need to be very careful in the future.

I’m in the camp that believes that TSHTF will be an incremental collapse punctuated with several major events… which we might not be able to indentify except in retrospect. For this reason, I do believe that the shit is alreading hitting the fan, but it’s still occuring at a reasonably controllable rate so many people are not aware exactly how far down the rabiit hole we really are. Sooner or later, we’re going to have a big event that accelerates things and makes it all perfectly obvious, and then things will cool down for awhile until the next big thing happens. The "fits and starts" nature should give many of us early folks time to get our preparations in order, and the lulls in between should allow us to pick up stragglers or help others form communities of their own. But, it will also provide the more unsavory elements (drug dealers and black marketeers) ample time to prepare as well. I would be really surprised if there aren’t people stockpiling things already specifically to black market post-TSHTF. I also think that we’ll start seeing more thefts at pharmacies and hospitals as criminals and profiteers attempt to secure all the medications… especially those that can get you high. Those of us with the will to survive will likely find ourselves without any painkillers in the future because the others have taken them to numb out during the transition.

But really, I am not all gloom and doom, and I don’t think it’s going to be Hell on Earth post-TSHTF… I’m just preparing for things to be really, really different and I’m not counting on the milk of human kindness to show up in the majority of the people I meet.

  • Thu, May 14, 2009 - 06:17pm

    #20
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    Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I’ll watch your video today Don. Yea I agree, I think the ending of that movie killed it. If someone could edit that out and repost just the guy talking, it would make for good comedy.

 

Pratimoksha – In the states, those natural pollinators are dissapearing very fast. It’s sad, but I have linked a few articles to it.

http://ezinearticles.com/?Disappearing-Bees,-Dying-Bats,-And-Endangered-Polar-Bears&id=1205155

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060721200158.htm

http://hubpages.com/hub/Frogs–Bats-and-Bees

http://www.newser.com/archive-headline-news/1G1-162587043/why-are-the-bees-disappearing-honeybees-have-gone-missing-from-their-hives-and-the-reason-has.html

 

I agree, I think TSHTF already. I think the ball has already started rolling.

I neglected stockpiling anything considered a vice. I’m sure some people will make money off that stuff, but I needed room for food and tools. I don’t need cases of alcohol, cartons of cigarettes or a bunch of pill bottles for that matter, or even ammo.

I think people that are self righteous and judgemental are everywhere, whether they broadcast it publicly or not. I definately do not trust other peoples sense of moral justice, not currently at least.

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