Clive Maund: gold is about to pop
Were you able to redeem your certificates? I missed that. I think you should repost that information prominently on a future comments page, along with a repetition of how long it took you to receive delivery on the certificates. If it is not true, then this rumor that gold and silver are somehow disappearing ought to be extinguished.
I tend to agree with the deflation argument, at least in the short term. People who are heavily invested in commodities and gold really wish that it were not true, because they want to believe that their investments will protect them like a golden shield, and this skews their interpretation of facts. Of course, the people holding AAA mortgage backed securities wanted to believe, too.
I actually skipped the whole process of buying certs and converting them for physical. I just asked the bank to quote me a 2 sided market and they gave me a decent spread of $10. I said I’d buy 10, 1 oz bars at his offering and a week later I got them and I stuck them in my safety deposit box. They’re nice and shiny 🙂 … If people believe that this physical to paper gold spread will widen, I was thinking of getting a ton more gold and shorting gold futures so that I’m hedged. The only problem to this is that it takes up capital, capital of which I could be using to trade with… Any thoughts?
Even if deflation wins out for the next few years and the price of precious metals tanks, please explain to me why anyone who is invested in gold & silver will suffer unless they sell? No selling, no suffering. I don’t know about others, but I didn’t buy gold and silver as a speculative investment. I traded my dollars for metal because I think, over the long term, that it is the safest way of preserving my savings.
On the other hand, if deflation happens for a short time and is followed quickly by hyperinflation, I’ll be very glad I own some physical gold and silver. I also happen to agree with almost every analyst that is mentioned on this site that inflation and a collapse of the dollar will be the long-term result of this economic crisis, even if there’s a long period of deflation preceding it.
Therefore, for those of us invested long-term in gold & silver, it’s probably a win-win situation. Sure, I may not make as much money as I would have if I was able to time the bottom of the market, but I’m not too worried about that.
And what about those who wait for that market bottom and then try to buy physical, only to find that there isn’t any available?If there’s such a shortage at these price levels, do you think there is going to be a robust supply at lower prices? What current owners of gold will sell at $650? That’s yet another reason I feel just fine about having some in my possession now.
I will once again repeat my challenge to those who doubt gold & silver’s supply is extremely tight. Very interesting how each time I’ve posted the challenge, no one responds. It’s getting old.
Find me a reputable online dealer with a reasonable supply of gold and silver and I will shut up. The fact is that all of the largest online dealers who had abundant supplies of gold & silver just a few months ago now have almost nothing. The fact that a couple of guys on this forum want to sell some physical and no one has replied doesn’t prove a thing, for the reasons I mentioned elsewhere.
you want me to give… http://www.scotiabank.com … they’re a bank and they will sell physical gold. I welcome your rebuttal. If you call them and they tell you that they have no gold to sell you, then I will heed your words and covet the gold in my bank box… but until then you’re grasping at just another conspiracy theory my friend.
Scotiabank is a Canadian bank. I live in the U.S. Not helpful to me.
Even if they do have supply, which I cannot check since I don’t live anywhere near a branch, that doesn’t change what I said in my previous email. I am talking about the major online bullion dealers like:
Many of them list supply on their sites, but if you actually call them to see if they have stock, the answer is inevitably "no". At least it was last week. I haven’t called yet this week.
Sites like apmex.com are listing ship dates in mid-November for a limited quantity of certain coins.
In a deflationary environment that is long and pronounced – we are talking one that will rival the 30’s here folks – I don’t want to be buying any commodities in any significant quantities. Cash is what wins here and the dollar will get a lot stronger before it gets weaker. When we start to make our way out of this depression I’ll start buying commodities again, but that isn’t anytime soon.
The problem I have with this view is that Silver and Gold are already almost impossible to purchase in any large quantity, so when it *finally* starts to move up, then good luck finding it.
I want to be prepared before the emergency strikes.
My thoughts exactly, Richard.
Gold down from $930 to $780 this week.
Granted supply was a problem this month, and it may/may not get better in November.
$650 is my number. Coins can be found still.
With all the economic uncertainty in every market today (regardless of country, currency, or sector), coupled with the fact that so many people are supposedly seaking safety, I simply cannot understand why gold & silver prices are going down! More confusing still is why the law of supply & demand doesn’t seem to be holding! I know that demand is up here in the USA (ask any dealer) , but perhaps not with the average household in India, China, etc.?
Investing a percentage of one’s net worth in metals as an "insurance policy" / hedge against inflation is fine, but since the average person is forced to buy at retail & sell at wholesale, the spot price has to increase dramatically for one to realize any significant profit, especially at the spread / margin dealers are asking these days! Most dealers I know of are selling silver Eagles at $5.00 + over spot, and gold Eagles (if they have them) at approx. 10% over! That’s huge! So here’s a question I’d love to learn the answer to:
Does anyone know how (the steps required) a person can become a licensed gold dealer & therefore be able to buy at wholesale? What is the process / requirements?
If you’ve read my previous comments, you’ll see that you’re not alone in your feelings about the price of Gold! Some thoughts going through my head (not all agreeing with regard to Gold price);
1) This time of the year, as I understand it, is ‘wedding season’ in India with a concomitant desire for Gold as wedding gifts. One would think this should have a positive impact on the price of Gold although it doesn’t appear to be the case at present.
2) The move downwards in Gold (and Silver) prices are due purely to the recent rally/strength of the dollar. When the dollar goes, and it will, so will Gold and Silver.
3) The move downwards in Gold (and Silver) prices are due to big sellers trying to keep a cap on the price. This would explain the disconnect of the physical/paper prices. If there are any defaults on the paper market, this will drive the prices of Gold and Silver.
3) Gold and Silver really are part of a new paradigm where they are regarded just as any other commodity is. I don’t, ultimately, believe this is so, I think it’s just a matter of time. One can still buy the modern equivalent of a Roman toga, belt and footwear with a ounce of Gold!
4) Do I think Gold will retrace to $600 on the basis of Elliott Wave? As I’ve mentioned before I think this neglects the current fundamental situation. One cannot regard technical and fundamental analysis in isolation, they are both relevant and important acting as tools together. HOWEVER, Jim Rogers was on TV a couple of weeks ago (Bloomberg) and did say that even if Gold fell to $600 he would still be buying.
5) Here’s another thought I’ve had, following Friday’s drop of about $36 in 4 minutes just after 2 p.m. London time (7 a.m.New York). It hasn’t happened every day, but I’ve noticed on several occasions recently that there’s a drop in the Gold price around the same time. The US coming in pushing the price down before the markets open? Other markets lifting their long positions before the market opens?
What would I do if I had the market clout? I’d be waiting, come in big time just before the futures are due for delivery (and, checking on the COMEX site today, their Gold contract requires physical delivery) and then ask for that physical delivery. That would drive the price up a bit! I could be wrong but that would seem to be a way of getting round the anecdotal evidence of a lack of physical supply (well, at the ounce/coin level anyway).