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Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

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  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 08:24am

    #1

    Amanda V

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    Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

I wonder why Chris Martenson did not talk about Climate Change in the Crash Course ? 

I suppose only Chris Martenson can answer this question, but I know he is a very busy man !

I also suppose it is a huge new subject area which is probably a huge job to take on and present. 

I still think there is enough serious concern on the topic though to support it as important as the three E’s.  I feel that it is a very real and impending phenomena that is going to create just as much upheaval as the three E’s.  Actually perhaps more.  Depending on your view point, probably more.

With peak oil we see a bell shaped curve – where if you take the peak at 2005, then in 2030 the worldwide oil production would be the same as it was in 1980.  Which of course is terrible because demand and population has gone up since then.

My point is that if we continue to burn oil at the rate we are – forget 2030 – we are going to be stuffed waaaay before then. Climate change is going to "get us" before the oil runs out.  Maybe not before it is extravagantly expensive.  But we will still be burning it.

This opinion comes after reading "Climate Wars" by Gwynne Dyer.  Gosh, I give us 5 years max till climate change chaos really kicks in badly.  And that is not counting the chaos of the three E’s on top of it.  It will be a perfect storm. 

I just don’t want the people on this forum to miss that.  We are all here trying to plan, theorise, debate and discuss different scenarios by sharing opinions on the outcome of the three E’s.  But I feel climate change will be right in the middle of it making it worse. 

It is sometimes mentioned that there could well be war as a result of oil shortage.  If climate change produces food shortages before then – that could well result in war too.  Both of them together will be almost certain.

War is a very real outcome of our future.  I would like to see readers consider planning for its possibility in their preparations.  Just a thought and I don’t want its consideration to be overlooked, that’s all.

 

 

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 10:22am

    #2

    gyrogearloose

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

[quote=AmandaPops]

I wonder why Chris Martenson did not talk about Climate Change in the Crash Course ? 

I still think there is enough serious concern on the topic though to support it as important as the three E’s.  I feel that it is a very real and impending phenomena that is going to create just as much upheaval as the three E’s.  Actually perhaps more.  Depending on your view point, probably more.

[/quote]

Even at its height of power and ideals, all the CO2 reduction targets seem to have achieved very little, even in the countries that really worked at meeting their goals

Peak Oil on the other hand is going to force us to reduce our consumption of oil by 6% per year from now according ti the IEA. The current meltdown is going to accelerate this reduction in the future due to the drop off in investment in new fields.

The effort to replace this oil loss with tar sand oil, shale oil, and coal to petrol, to maintain our current consumption rate is almost certainly beyond our capability.

This means that we ARE now going to start to reduce our CO2 emissions from these sources.

The rate at which we loose oil & oil substitutes is in all likelihood going to be at a pace which causes at least  tens millions of deaths due to starvation/war etc.

I don’t believe that any politicians will be willing to suggest we reduce our consumption faster and essentially kill millions more than otherwise would so we can lessen the potential danger of AGW side effects.

War will break out first, guaranteed.

So debate on AWG is a side show that will not have any meaningful impact on a CO2 emissions

Personally, I am sceptical about the quality of much of the "science" put forward by the IPCC and its brethren.

However, In my hunt for the perfect bit of land, anything too near the sea is not being considered Wink

Cheers Hamish

 

 

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 11:07am

    #3

    Damnthematrix

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

The Christopher Booker Prize for Climate Change Bullshit

Today I launch a prestigious and coveted award. Who will the lucky winner be?

 

By George Monbiot. Published on my Guardian blog, 6th February 2009

The award will go to whoever manages, in the course of 2009, to cram as many misrepresentations,
distortions and falsehoods into a single article, statement, lecture,
film or interview about climate change. This work must be available
online. You score a point for every mistake, though one point will be
deducted for every retraction or correction published by the author or
the original outlet within a reasonable length of time.

For more details, and a picture of the beautiful trophy – made entirely from recycled materials – see:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2009/feb/04/christopher-booker-george-monbiot-prize

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 03:05pm

    #4

    Downrange

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

Certainly can’t speak for Chris, but it might have something to do with the fact that the role of human CO2 release in the scheme of the planetary warming cycle has not been definitively established.  As such, AGW (anthropogenic global warming) is more of a religion, complete with articles of "faith," and, in my view, a basic Calvinist sense of self-denial, that doesn’t belong in a serious view of our predicament and what we might realistically do about it.  As another poster pointed out, the problem of excess carbon release is likely to be a short-lived one anyway, as we’ve high-graded out most of the carbon-based fuel supply anyway…

In fact, if AGW had some basis in fact, it could prove to be delaying the arrival of the next ice age, which would be a true global catastrophy for the billions not living in equatorial zones.  So it could be a good thing, if it were real, kind of ironic, eh?

 

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 03:39pm

    #6

    Arthur Vibert

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

Sadly, this is a bad subject for this site, as it invariably devolves into potshots fired back and forth by "believers" and "non-believers" in climate change, a veritable perfect storm of tit-for-tatting that results in interminable, multi page forum subjects in which no one’s mind is changed. To date, CM has (wisely, I think) refused to wade in with a point of view on this subject, and I suspect this will continue to be his policy.

People do get polarized on this issue. I happen to be in the "Climate change is a given and I’m pretty sure it’s anthropogenic in origin" camp but I also think that, given the circumstances we find ourselves in that little will be done to alleviate it. The world needs to shed a few billion people, and it is finding ways to take care of that.

Arthur 

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 03:58pm

    #5
    pwoody82

    pwoody82

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

A few things that I have run across:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=302139006837027

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=301188009150002

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=300928533183022

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12317&tid=282&cid=23446

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewArticle.do?id=9210&sectionid=1000

There are a host of other articles out there that makes the hypothesis of global warming due to CO2 uncertain. Also the fundamental tenant of global warming advocates is that the current climate is the ideal climate and it should not be permitted to change, even if some other climate, warmer or colder would be better.

In the Museum of Natural History here in Albuquerque NM there is a section dealing with the history of New Mexico showing the changes in flora and fauna over a period of about 20,000 years. 20,000 years ago the climate of New Mexico was much colder than now. The highest peak in NM is a little over 13,000 feet with several others over 12,000. The museum has a diorama along one wall showing how the vegetation has changed over the the period. At the start of the period displayed, the highest peaks had snow year round, coming down 3-4000 feet below the summits. Halfway through the period the snow came down only a 1000 feet or so, and today the peaks do not have snow year round.

This diorama was not done to illustrate global warming since it was done before Al Gore’s book but it does illustrate it here in the southwest. It clearly shows that here in the southwest, ‘global warming’ has been occurring for at least that long. Now that long ago, there was little fossil fuel being burned but warming was still happening, and the flora/fauna record of New Mexico makes it pretty plain that it is probably still occurring. That is what makes me believe that while global warming may be occurring, it is not certain that it is caused by CO2, and less certain that controlling CO2 emissions will change the process of a trend that goes back that far.

The point is that this world has matters a lot more pressing than global warming to deal with and that we should not take our eyes off the ball to try to change a natural process that is ongoing and probably outside of our control. We have urgent problems about Peak Oil, population growth, depletion or resources, pollution, and severe shortage in the near future. Lets work on what we can and not waste resources on a bug-a-boo that will eventually take care of itself.

pwoody

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 06:26pm

    #7

    Amanda V

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

Yeah, maybe I shouldn’t have mentioned climated change.  It is just too controversial, and Arthur you are absolutely right – there are the believers and non believers – and nothing can be said to change either’s side.  A bit like religeon.  Besides climate change has been discussed on the forum before – to the same conclusion.  Back and forths between believers and non believers.

Whether it is anthropologically induced or not, though, is a different question to whether it is happening or not.  I don’t think I am going to debate climate change any more.  Suffice to say that IF you believe, then MY PERSONAL OPINION is that its consequences will be serious before peak oil has serious consequences to humanity.  But that both of them will bring war.

And I really just wanted to see people thinking ahead with how they might deal with war.  If there is anything we can do.  I don’t know.  Relocate ? Or just keep doing what we are and being as self reliant as possible ?  Or just start doing something – anything – sooner.

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 07:11pm

    #8
    SamLinder

    SamLinder

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

[quote=AmandaPops]

Yeah, maybe I shouldn’t have mentioned climated change.  It is just too controversial, and Arthur you are absolutely right – there are the believers and non believers – and nothing can be said to change either’s side.  A bit like religeon.  Besides climate change has been discussed on the forum before – to the same conclusion.  Back and forths between believers and non believers.

Whether it is anthropologically induced or not, though, is a different question to whether it is happening or not.  I don’t think I am going to debate climate change any more.  Suffice to say that IF you believe, then MY PERSONAL OPINION is that its consequences will be serious before peak oil has serious consequences to humanity.  But that both of them will bring war.

And I really just wanted to see people thinking ahead with how they might deal with war.  If there is anything we can do.  I don’t know.  Relocate ? Or just keep doing what we are and being as self reliant as possible ?  Or just start doing something – anything – sooner.

[/quote]

There is a third class of thought out here. What about the concept that AGW is exacerbating the already natural global warming cycle? I don’t think anyone denies the reality in the historical record of cyclical periods of global warming and cooling.

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 07:47pm

    #9

    gyrogearloose

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

[quote=AmandaPops]

there are the believers and non believers – and nothing can be said to change either’s side.  A bit like religeon.  [/quote]

 

Which is rather sad because it is supposed to be about science and numbers,

but it became political………

then the media got into it………….

 

 

  • Mon, Feb 09, 2009 - 01:21am

    #10

    Stan Robertson

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    Re: Climate Change, the Three E’s, and War

Sam, you obviously haven’t read the IPCC report and looked at its phony graph of historical average temperatures. They try to peddle the idea that mean temperature was very nearly constant until  a hockey stick change began in the last century. Anyone who takes an honest look at historical climate data will be disabused of the notion that mean temperature is constant on timescales exceeding a century or so. It is downright wild in its variation on millennial timescales. Only when seriously costy measures to reign in CO2 emissions are proposed will there be an honest debate on the scientific merits. Until then people can and will keep their religion and ignore the data.

Stan

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