Chris’s “This Generation’s Polio” video and the Diamond Princess IFR
Hi all, I’ve been doing research into the “true” SARSCov2 infection fatality rate (ok there’s actually no single rate but rather a spectrum of rates) and if I have time maybe I’ll post something on it latter. but I wanted to comment on Chris’s video today where he talks about the Diamond Princess cruise ship. First off it looks like there are actually 14 not 13 DP deaths according to the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess . There is a paper written about the DP, originally posted in medRxiv on 3/9 and now published in Eurosurveillance: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256 In it the authors estimated the DP IFR adjusted for age at 1.2%. I did my own age adjustment assuming 14 deaths out of 712 cases using US CDC covid -19 deaths by age data: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm and got 1.5% IFR . These numbers are closely inline with a number of data sets that I am studying at the moment and also with the NY state antibody test data which found deaths to infected at about 0.78% but with some 85% of cases still active at the time implying at least a doubling of this rate over time. I think the mist’s around covid -19’s infection fatality rate have finally begun to clear.
Diamond Princess Video –
Of the 3,700 passengers and crew, more than 700 were infected with the novel coronavirus, and 13 people died. This video includes an in-depth investigation into what happened inside the ship. It reveals a microcosm of Japan’s battle against the virus, and offers important clues for managing the crisis.
Good find thanks, I’ll check it out tomorrow!