Calculating the Vegas Odds: Virus vs. Vax Risks
[bold my emphasis]
…And some of the most alarming predictions made by critics, many of whom are widely cited and reputable doctors and researchers with long and distinguished careers, suggest that my attempt to calculate Vegas odds for the vaccines does not capture anywhere near the full range of possible bad outcomes. These critics may be wrong. But there is no data that can conclusively rule out their concerns so I cannot quantify the risk of pathogenic priming or antibody-dependent enhancement in my Vegas odds. Time will tell. The most important test will come this winter when coronavirus seasonality puts our vaccinated friends to the test – that’s when we will really find out whether all the concerns about antibody-dependent enhancement have merit or not.
If the critics are right, then those who have been vaccinated will have had their odds of death significantly increased when they next encounter a COVID virus in the wild. I hope with all my heart that the critics are wrong. Hope is not a strategy. A mass vaccine rollout with these kinds of overhanging questions is gross negligence on a scale never seen before. …
…Whether the vulnerable should take the risk of getting the emergency-use authorized vaccine is another question altogether. My recent investigative report into the government’s disastrous handling of the pandemic showed that it is virtually impossible for anyone to give informed consent for the COVID vaccines because of how badly the government has distorted everyone’s sense of risk. And this article demonstrated that the known risks of getting the jab are no small matter and that the unknown and unquantifiable risks hanging over this vaccine have turned what should be a basic risk calculation into a blind gamble. …
it is virtually impossible for anyone to give informed consent for the COVID vaccines because of how badly the government has distorted everyone’s sense of risk.
There is no way that was accidental. They suppressed treatments for outpatients so people would feel powerless and more afraid.
That’s the way tyrants work. They know people won’t give up their freedom unless they are very afraid.
Great find, Jan! I imagine most of us here have done some similar calculations for ourselves and our loved ones but it was very useful to see it done formally. Thanks for sharing it.
The Vegas stye odds may be the reason I would not bet in Vegas. The use of CDC infection fatality figures as the starting point, is a flaw, and distorts the numbers from there. Using the figures from the ‘Diamond princess’ for the IFR would have been more valid.
(Comes from Chamie.)