Brexit or Bremain? Vote here, early and often.
And according to the much anticipated poll by YouGov which surveyed around 5,000 voters, Remain will win 52% while Leave is at 48%.
I can only hope that with a more complete count my preferred ""result"" of 53% to 47% can be achieved.
And may the Brits who actually did vote to remain enjoy their servitude under the EU technocrats for many, many years to come,
I was just about to castigate you for your terrible forecast. But hey, we still have the actual vote counting ahead of us, so you may have the last laugh.
It will be interesting to see what effects this has on UK domestic politics. Tories were ripped in half by this particular campaign. How will they continue to govern?
I guess for now, the European pot continues to simmer.
This result will still be a shot across the bows of the EU elite. What will they do in response? Double down? "More Europe?" Migration? Immigration in the UK? Shengen visas for 80 million Turks? Brits didn't like the Poles – I can't wait to see what happens when the Turks pour in.
So many things remain unresolved.
Of course I shouldn't laugh. We will end up with either Trump or Hillary. Unless there is some sort of divine intervention.
A few votes to count, but Brexit is actually leading over Bremain at the moment. (!!!!)
You can knock me over with a feather.
Totally unexpected. Must be paper ballots or something in use over there? This is not the result the powers that be wanted.
Right now the S&P 500 futures are down by 53 points, or -2.5% which is a big move, and highly volatile with a gigantic gap down met with a furious wall of buying that was then swamped by even more volume to the downside.
People are getting their clocks cleaned here….the volatility traders are rubbing their hands with glee.
Well, we aren't rubbing our hands with glee if we're short volatility. 🙂
When I left for a dinner event, this was on my screen:
Everywhere the press was trumpeting the Remain victory.
So I am reminded of this:
4:14am Mark Odell Emoticon West Oxfordshire, which includes David Cameron's constituency, has just backed Remain. It will do little to cheer the prime minister, however, as it delivers only 35,236 votes against 30,435 for Leave. The OUT camp has a lead of more than 600,000 votes with 265 of 382 authorities reporting. There are still some areas with large populations to vote, however.
4:13am Josh Noble Remain chances of victory now down to 8%, per Betfair.
The pound has slipped to 1.354 to the dollar, Japanese freaking out, 10 year Treasury yield drops hard.
Mark Odell If you need any further reminder of how far the shockwaves of the voting is spreading around the world, the Japanese finance minister, Taro Aso, has announced he will be giving a press conference in just under an hour, after the Yen strengthened against the US dollar as it passed below 100.
Judith Evans Investors are rushing for havens as the chance of Brexit rises, says Elaine Moore, capital markets correspondent. Demand for US government bonds has pushed the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasurys – the bedrock of the global financial system – down 23 basis points to 1.54 per cent.
Birmingham, the UK's second biggest city, has voted in favour of Leave
Southampton has just declared for Leave, which now holds a lead of more than 730,000 votes, giving it a total of more than 12,400,000 votes. The winning side needs to go past 16.8 million votes
It sure looks like voting mattered. I'm really happy, even if my trades went against me.
Pound is down an unbelievable 13 points or -9%. Long bond: +3%. Gold +4%. Dollar +2.9%.
With gold up 4% and the buck up 3%, that's a net 7% move in gold.
If this continues, gold should make a new high.
I have to say, I'm really happy gold futures trade 23.5 hours per day…
Somebody pinch me.
ITV calls it for Leave.
I honestly believe the Queen coming out for Leave, when she rarely takes a stance on anything, made a difference.