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Bitcoin Bloodbath

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Viewing 10 posts - 11 through 20 (of 31 total)
  • Sun, Nov 25, 2018 - 10:14am

    #11

    New_Life

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    BTC bubble lift off early 2017 + $3Billion of Tether

  • Sun, Nov 25, 2018 - 09:47pm

    #12

    New_Life

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    $50MM of tether

$50MM of tether moved to the exchange owned by the same people behind USDT 4hours ago

Yep looks like they are still “at it”…

  • Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 08:09am

    #13

    davefairtex

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    avg mining costs

I do not think “average mining costs” provide any sort of support level.

If people don’t want to own gold, for instance, if everyone suddenly decided that it is useless, then it doesn’t matter that gold costs $1000/oz to mine.  Price for all the above-ground gold will plummet to a penny, and the gold miners will all stop their mining operations.

Same thing here.

Support levels are about people willing to step up and buy at that price point.  That’s it.  Miners aren’t buyers – they are sellers.  Neither are whales – they’ve already bought, and all they can do is promote, and/or sell.

“Dollar whales” (i.e. rich people), dumb money, and Tether are the potential buyers.    Where and how much they decide to buy will determine if and when the plunge stops.

 

 

  • Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 09:06am   (Reply to #13)

    #14

    New_Life

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    Completely agree

I wasn’t suggesting that production costs = bottom

Indeed BTC has gone below such levels previously

I fully expect some miners to go out of business, many have already ceased operations

The main reason people are interested in BTC is because they believe in their expectation that it goes up over time…

 

Couple of indicators of interest to you Dave, Weekly 200EMA and monthly 55EMA

  • Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 09:28am

    #15

    New_Life

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    ETH became a double digit sh1tcoin

Coinbase had ETH at < $100 over the weekend, so it looks like one of that "Industry Insider's" predictions (Arthur Hayes) came true, his other one was that BTC would hit $50k by year end, yes really, I posted his CNBC interview making such unbelievable predictions back in the summer.

  • Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 02:23pm   (Reply to #13)

    #16

    Chris Martenson

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    BTC mining costs

davefairtex wrote:

I do not think “average mining costs” provide any sort of support level.

If people don’t want to own gold, for instance, if everyone suddenly decided that it is useless, then it doesn’t matter that gold costs $1000/oz to mine.  Price for all the above-ground gold will plummet to a penny, and the gold miners will all stop their mining operations.

Same thing here.

The difference being that without miners BTC that is ‘above ground’ has limited to no value since the transactions cannot be processed as quickly or at all (if all the miiners throw in the towel).

I hear that the mining costs are adjustable for BTC somehow, but am clueless as to the actual mechanisms for de-tuning the hash to make it easier…so I don’t know if those adjustments can be done fast enough or large enough to keep up with such a rapidly declining market.

That said, I don’t see how the avg mining costs for BTC provide anything other than a useful way to guage if BTC itself is losing or gaining utility under the theory that if enough miners go dark BTC loses utility with every mining rig that is turned off.

Or do I have this all wrong?

  • Mon, Nov 26, 2018 - 02:26pm   (Reply to #12)

    #17

    Chris Martenson

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    An expensive buy

New_Life wrote:

$50MM of tether moved to the exchange owned by the same people behind USDT 4hours ago

Yep looks like they are still “at it”…

Well, I know that Tethers cost their operators zero, but it seems like that $50M was a tad expensive.

In the past a big Tether buy would last weeks or many days.  This one?  Got digested and burped out in 24 hours.

So the ‘expense’ here was showing everybody just how little legitimate buying actualyl exists?

  • Tue, Nov 27, 2018 - 03:59am   (Reply to #12)

    #18

    davefairtex

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    USDT grants

Looking on coinmarketcap, I see that USDT outstanding has plummeted in recent weeks.  This plunge in Tether outtsanding (which might be compared to quantitative tightening) preceded the current bitcoin plunge by about 3-4 weeks.  The drop in tether was about $900 million dollars.  So any recent pop of $50 million was dwarfed by the overall drop.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

It appears that someone – maybe a lot of someones – were cashing in Tether for USD in the weeks before the latest 40% drop in bitcoin price.  The timing is curious.  Did one cause the other?   Were the insider rats deserting the sinking ship in advance?

 

  • Fri, Dec 07, 2018 - 06:52am

    #19

    New_Life

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    When to HODL

Just a reminder… (originally shared back in March)

 

Worth noting with BTC at 3.3k, we have a weekly close just beneath us for support and a (weak) Daily Bullish Divergence and Shorts nearing ATHs, so a minor  rebound may be possible, but the bearish pressure is relentless, sub $3k by Xmas a real possibility, $2k not off the table either, as for alts, ETH = $88, and the small caps are being slaughtered, some are down >90% / USD since being publically recommended on here back in April.

  • Fri, Dec 07, 2018 - 12:03pm

    #20

    davefairtex

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    HODL

So in this new definition, HODL really means “buy low, sell high.”  Truly a new paradigm.  The “bitcoin $100k” predictions are looking more than a little silly right now.

I have no prognostication for where bitcoin goes next.  In the laast 12 months, “lower” has been a pretty good bet, and that will continue to be a good bet, right up until it isn’t.

I’m not expecting a V-bottom for bitcoin.  If we assume it will replay history, bitcoin still needs to track sideways for a time before it can rally again.  The Tether gang probably tried to speed this process up by keeping bitcoin > 6000, but my sense is, the selling pressure from all that disappointed dumb money ended up being too much for even fraud to overcome.

Probably a fair number of 1080 ti GPUs for sale out there…only slightly used in a mining rig…used 24/7 for the past year or two…

 

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