Bitcoin $100,000. Not if – but when
This price history of Bitcoin is quite clear with the legendary volatility. But since we are talking about currencies such as gold and silver – as well as the general agreement that the USD is on an unsustainable path with debt, it seems natural that we talk about the new kind of financial system and the new kind of money that may replace both.
Bitcoin is a tale of booms and busts. No new technology revolution enters quietly in from the night. But yet, historically, the common mantra some attribute to Gandhi (although the quote’s true originator is up for debate), seems to apply here.
First, they ignore you
Then, they laugh at you,
Then they fight you.
Then you win.
After some time, it will be so obvious to future generations looking back they some might wonder how people could have ever thought differently.
Bitcoin has had several amazing rises in price. The earliest movements were far more breathtaking. In January 2011 in rose from around 20 cents to $5.00 for an AMAZING 25x return. Of course, people lose sight of that being distracted by the irrational exuberance of the price peaking at $30.00 mid-year. Worse than putting the bubble in between in context, some preferred to minimize the rise and over-report the fall. The news the mainstream media reported as Bitcoin Falls 93% from $30 to $2. To many people, that was the story they heard. That’s what stuck, bitcoin lost 93%, not the fact it was up 25,000% year-to-year. It was still the best performing asset of 2011 – but this was ignored.
That theme of jaded reporting will be a continuing theme.
In 2012, bitcoin returned 166% higher January to January. Again, it was the best performing asset for the year. How many of you knew that then? It was still being ignored… The period in between was its first crypto winter.
In 2013, It rose from around $13 to $770, again January to January- A 5,700% increase and again the best performing asset in the world. But mainstream media laughed at it because in the middle of the amazing rise was the fact that it peaked around $1100 and the majority of the story was highlighting the fall in the bubble of 30%. What actually happened: a 5,700% ROI, what people heard? “The crazy people that invested real money for the monopoly money just lost 30% in the last month from its high). New media just laughed and laughed at this new modern tulip bulb.
The second crypto winter started in early 2014 and lasted about 18 months before it started moving again sparked by the natural ‘halving’ event that reduces the amount of new currency that enters the world by half and set in the bylaws of the code that cannot be changed.
Each new high makes the previous bubble high a ‘blip on the radar’.
2011 one day bubble peak: $30. Again reached about 18-20 months later
2013 bubble peak: $1100 – Again reached about 18 months later
2017 bubble peak $20,000 – If pattern remains – will be seen again June-August 2019.
the takeaway – each new bubble peak makes the previous bubble peak look like child’s play. Each new peak would have been considered unthinkable when gauging the possibility based on the previous peak.
In measuring peaks – $30 in 2011 to $1100 in 2013 was a difference of 36X during 30 months for this “Tulip”.
Then measuring $1100 in 2013 to $20,000 in 2017 was a difference of 18x for this “Tulip”. The pattern from peak to peak shows the difference in peaks about half the multiple from the previous. It also took about twice as long to reach there.
If “Tulip Mania 3″ follows the pattern, it would indicate a multiple of 9x the previous high but this might take five or six years to reach it.
So based on this pattern, we would see a top of $180,000 by 2025. So when will we see the amount cross into six-digit bitcoin price? 2020? 2021? Could it possibly be 2019? Interestingly, a price of $20,000 this summer isn’t unimaginable. Considering the current price of $8,000 – that’s quite a nice return. What do you think the media will say about this next ‘tulip bulb mania”?
Can some of you chart gurus check out this guy’s reasoning?
I meant to paste this in:
That youtube is also interesting. A hot prez??
What should we make of Facebook’s Libra whitepaper? Will it survive to become a production network? Why is Silicon Valley coming for banking? Does it change anything about the regulatory environment faced by open public blockchains?
This talk was delivered on June 19th 2019 for the Scottish Blockchain Meetup at Craiglockhart Campus in Edinburgh, Scotland