Attempting to value gold

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  • Mon, Mar 21, 2011 - 03:27am

    #1
    sundarb

    sundarb

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    Attempting to value gold

All,

I found an interesting set of videos by the founder of Bullionvault, trying to put a fair value on gold.

It is a very tricky business, but I think he did a decent job navigating through it and he came up with a fair value around 3800$.

He uses probability of inflation % in baskets and tries to filter the probability of that really happening into the price of gold.

http://gold.bullionvault.com/How/GoldValue/#MAREKK2

Another way to look at it may be using the Dow/gold ratio:

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

At 13,000 for Dow, then the price of gold to match a long-term ratio of 3 would be around $4000 an ounce.

I was wondering if you had any thoughts on this analysis?

 

  • Wed, Sep 26, 2012 - 05:58am

    #2

    nameofthegame

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    BullionVault is great but I

BullionVault is great but I think this is quite conservative a figure, even considering the article is over a year old when gold was around the $1,300 level if I remember right). And Peter Schiff and others have pointed out that the gold to Dow ratio would eventually get to nearer the 1:1 level before a correction does take place. Whether this means a Dow declining from 13,000 or whether gold and the Dow will meet somewhere beyond 13,000 is the mystery. I’d say above 13,000, but I might be thinking wishfully.

  • Mon, Nov 12, 2012 - 11:20am

    #3
    marktrading

    marktrading

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    Hi i am  gold and silver

Hi i am  gold and silver trader and new in this forum.

  • Thu, Nov 20, 2014 - 04:31am

    #4
    nawaz

    nawaz

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    nice

After more than two years of pursuing this issue with several highly specialized tax attorneys well-versed in this area (not associated with the company referenced below), I respectively disagree with you. The IRS regulations are not at all as straightforward as you depict above.

 
 
 
 
Nawaz
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