Are confirmed cases an illusion?

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  • Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - 08:28am

    #31

    Jim H

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    Are confirmed cases an illusion?

Chris said,

The reason I’m pushing the XYZ angle is to see if there isn’t something else happening here that we haven’t uncovered so far.

We know that children tend not to get symptomatic cases of the disease, and neither do they tend to be spreaders of the disease.  There is something in the realm of normal, human biological variability that, if not imparting outright immunity, seems to impart a high degree of protection.  What is this factor?

  • Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - 10:09am

    #32
    denalizen

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    Reply To: Are confirmed cases an illusion?

Again, I think all of this is simply because of masks.  Countries that open up have the same experience that countries that don’t because the public (not mandated) implementation of masks, more and better, is what is causing rapid rate decline.  There is herd immunity happening as well, but it is among the “player” types that aren’t really doing anything to be safe.   I think it’s a “I really wanna be safe, follow safe practices as much as I can” along with the “I’ll go along even though I don’t like this” vs the “I really am going to fudge the rules as much as I can”.  The latter herd is getting some immunity in their little herds.

I know very speculative, but I don’t have that much time to digest much here.

Here is some math I have put out there at times to back this up:

An N95 mask has been proven to block 95% of all particles large enough to carry the coronavirus. That means that from one mouth, going out through the mask, only 5% of the virus makes it out.
On the other end, on the another face, is where the interesting thing happens. 95% of that 5% is blocked. 5% gets through. 5% of 5% is .25%. That’s Point 25 percent.
If both people wear an N95 level mask, they have successfully blocked 99.75% of the virus from transmitting.
That Is Lysol.
Let’s say you have a cheaper mask, only 80%, on both faces. That’s 20% of 20%. You have successfully blocked 96% of the viral load from lungs to lungs.
Crappy mask, 50%? 50% of 50% is 25%. This is how estimates that the simple act of wearing a mask, or “face covering” will block the virus transmission by 80% comes from.
Wear a mask, the virus goes away, we can all get back to business in relatively short order. Don’t wear a mask and this nightmare continues.

 

Add to that that what we are also talking about minimizing with a mask is the viral load, as we all know, but it must be considered a factor in the numbers we are seeing.

  • Thu, Aug 06, 2020 - 06:51pm

    #33
    Dr. Jurgen Mayer

    Dr. Jurgen Mayer

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    Are confirmed cases an illusion?

JM-

You said there were 5k deaths from influenza per year.  Where did you get this number?  If you could provide a reference, that would be great, as well as a reference for how many died during the 2018 influenza epidemic.

In 2018 the CDC reported that 45,278 Americans died from influenza/pneumonia but the label is the issue. Influenza is not killing these patients, various medical issues within the patient COULD be leading to pneumonia and the patient dies. If and when these deaths occur during an influenza “season” then hospitals LUMP influenza/pneumonia together as the cause of death. If there is an elderly woman that has known respiratory issues, has not been infected with influenza, she goes out shopping and the cold air leads to pneumonia, her death would STILL be listed as influenza/pneumonia.

Just look at the CDC site, they are not posting actual data, just estimations.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

Also, most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu, or they seek medical care later in their illness when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples

Digest that statement from the CDC’s own website. MOST people who die from “flu-related” complications are not tested OR when influenza can no longer be detected from respiratory samples. So if MOST people who die from flu-related complications were never medically confirmed to have been infected from influenza then HOW can a medical professional determine that they died from flu-related complications?! Do you see that this is just a con job? If a woman goes into an ER tomorrow and is not tested for any viruses, she dies, then on the death certificate they write “COVID related complications”, that is called a lie. She was never tested for COVID and never tested positive for COVID, so to ASSERT that she died from COVID-related complications is malpractice. Saying that a patient died from influenza-related complications while never confirming they actually had influenza IS A SCAM. Ask ANY medical doctor in the world if they have ever met or heard of a patient that died from influenza. The number of deaths per year is exceptionally low. The number of pneumonia deaths per year is MUCH higher. By simply grouping influenza together with pneumonia, pharmaceutical companies make billions. More importantly, bare anyone in the world that believes they are infected with influenza actually has the genome sequenced to confirm they are infected with influenza. A doctor, at best, might listen to their symptoms and presume they are infected with influenza. Influenza does not cause pneumonia, the patient could develop it, usually by having comorbidities.

So which conversation are we having, how many died from influenza or how many died from pneumonia? Because the latter requires us to presume the patient potentially died with influenza-like symptoms but there is no way to actually verify that. So 45,278 died from confirmed pneumonia but presumed (never verified) influenza infections.

Scroll down to page 40 and look at the breakdown for 2013. 53,282 died from confirmed pneumonia whereas 3,697 died from confirmed influenza.

The codes you want are J09, J10, J11. More recent years have simply stopped reporting actual influenza deaths. If you look at 2017 there is no breakdown between influenza and pneumonia. They are forced together.

Just for clarification, influenza is a real and very common virus. Many people are infected each year and a few thousand die from this virus. Auto-relating pneumonia deaths to influenza is not science or reality.

 

You suggest COVID-19 could be a naturalized part of society, “just like cancer.”   Just curious, what are the cancer deaths in the US per year?

2019 “estimated” cancer deaths are 606,880. “The most recent year for which reported incidence and mortality data are available lags 2 to 4 years behind the current year due to the time required for data collection, compilation, quality control, and dissemination.” It was too much effort to find actual confirmed cancer mortality in the USA for any year. Not mortality rates, not estimations but actual confirmed mortality. Odd that one needs to dig so far to answer such a basic question.

How does it compare to the anticipated “final” COVID-19 deaths for wave #1?  It would help me put the threat from COVID-19 in perspective.

Is there an estimate for hCoV-2019 deaths in the USA? That bar appears to change every month. I recall hearing 2 million, 600k, 200k. What is the time table for comparison? Because cancer mortality is a 12-month statistic. So we would need a first wave to start and end at 12 months for a fair comparison. Also, I was referring to hCoV-2019 being endemic to society, while putting zero estimation on how many yearly deaths for the nation. Both influenza and cancer are endemic and by using statistics, agencies can create estimations. We are dealing with a novel outbreak, so there is no prior data to compare with.

I’m also curious as to the seroprevalence of COVID-19 infections in the US.  How many people have actually been infected, as a percentage of the population?

The testing equipment and methods are faulty, so there are a large number of false positives from testing. Nonetheless, only 19.6% of the population has been tested. Out of the 19.6% population that were tested, 8.9% tested positive. There is no way to estimate how many false-positives or false-negatives have occurred. Given that 80.4% of your population has never been tested, it shows that the spread or amount of contagion within the nation is heavily unknown. It is quite difficult to track something that is barely being tracked.

References on those numbers would be awesome.

Lastly, do you have any estimates for the current IFR that the US is experiencing for COVID-19?  Once again – references for these estimates would be great.

I do not. We would, at best just be guessing what percentage of the population has been infected and without testing, there is no way to know this. Guesswork will likely only lead us to flimsy conclusions. If the infection rate is unknown then the IFR is unknown. Period. This is a better question for Dr. Martenson.

We are not dealing with constants but variables. This virus is novel, it is not seasonal. Mutations will continue to occur. These mutations will change the virus in various ways. Some strains will be weaker and die out. Some will be deadlier. Some will spread easier. We simply do not know. The lack of global testing. I would estimate that perhaps only 5% of the world’s population has actually been tested. To quantify that statement please keep in mind that most of the testing available is unreliable.

  • Fri, Aug 07, 2020 - 10:26am

    #34

    davefairtex

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    graphs all look the same

JM-

First of all, the data on influenza was fascinating.  I didn’t catch the merge between “influenza and pneumonia” – I suspect I wasn’t meant to catch it.  It seems as though influenza mostly doesn’t kill people.  Can we say that if we lump all ILIs together, as a group they cause pneumonia, and are responsible for the pneumonia deaths?  [Clearly the flu vaccine is utterly useless if it is just one small subset of the ILIs that, taken together, cause those pneumonia deaths].

It seems as though the “influenza & pneumonia” deaths are kind of like the COVID deaths; “dying while testing positive for COVID” vs “dying from COVID.”

But at the core, we do know – roughly – what mortality for COVID is, by looking at that all cause mortality chart.  COVID deaths can’t be in excess of that.  And we can use this data point to extrapolate worldwide, at least in regions with a modicum of healthcare.

The all cause mortality data puts an upper bound on how many people in the US died from “COVID-ish” deaths.  It doesn’t look as serious as cancer – it doesn’t look as serious as heart disease.  It looks more serious than “pneumonia”.

As a matter of policy, should we destroy the economy to push infections off into the future?  Sweden didn’t do that.  They suffered roughly half the economic damage of the rest of Europe.   And now there don’t seem to be very many deaths there. Even if their numbers aren’t accurate,  we can judge trends, if not absolute numbers.  Deaths are trending lower.  Dramatically lower.  They are not all hiding in their rooms to bring this about.  We should ask our Swedish readers for an on-the-ground report.

Why?  At this point, I believe individual testimony more than Pharma-sponsored Mainstream Media.  The lies from our Newspapers of Record are endless – whether they be politically motivated, or financially motivated.

We know the rough trends.  Everywhere in the West, I’m pretty confident that we know what’s going on.  Roughly speaking.  Herd immunity is approaching.  Already here, in some places, approaching in others.

The graphs all look the same.

The data just isn’t that far off.  We would know.  Enough people know HCWs in hospitals – if there were bodies piling up, we’d find out rapidly, if for no other reason than to hose Donald Trump.

  • Fri, Aug 07, 2020 - 06:02pm

    #35
    Dr. Jurgen Mayer

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    Are confirmed cases an illusion?

Can we say that if we lump all ILIs together, as a group they cause pneumonia, and are responsible for the pneumonia deaths?

That would be speculative and that is the problem with these misnomers around influenza. Any influenza-related illness COULD potentially lead to pneumonia just as HIV COULD potentially lead to AIDS, but unlike AIDS, onset pneumonia presents for many different reasons. Even the common cold can be blamed for many pneumonia cases. Even if 4,000 deaths are confirmed as influenza deaths, certainly many more then lead to pneumonia and death, but how many is absolutely uncertain, and that is by design. So the CDC will put out computer model estimates and say things like “we estimate that between 4,000-70,000 people will die from influenza-related illness during the next flu outbreak”. It is not that the modeling numbers are wrong, it is designed in a way where no one is questioning the data, and here is why.

If the government and health officials told everyone that flu-related deaths accounted for even 10,000 deaths per year, how many people get vaccinated? How many bother buying certain medications and drugs to prevent the flu? Very few compared to telling people that 60,000+ die from this terrible scary virus. But I am not here to downplay influenza. People should still take it seriously and avoid it.

It seems as though the “influenza & pneumonia” deaths are kind of like the COVID deaths; “dying while testing positive for COVID” vs “dying from COVID.”

No, this is not correct. I keep seeing many people make this same mistake. Here are examples that should help make this clear

 

Patient A is rushed to the hospital tomorrow with respiratory distress and dies in the ER. The patient was never tested for hCoV-2019. Due to the pandemic, the cause of death is written as a COVID-related death. This is incorrect and I do not condone this.

Patient B is rushed to the hospital tomorrow with respiratory distress and dies in the ER. The patient had tested positive for hCoV-2019. Due to the pandemic, the cause of death is written as a COVID-related death. This is correct. More than likely the virus caused the respiratory distress which led to the death. This is a COVID-related death and should be listed as such.

The difference is with confirmation of the virus. If a patient is confirmed with hCoV-2019 and dies for virtually any reason then it is highly probable that hCoV-2019 was the catalyst and the death SHOULD be ruled as COVID-related.

This is where influenza GREATLY differs. The patients are generally NOT being tested or confirmed for influenza and then influenza is always being grouped as a related cause of death even though the virus was never confirmed. That is dangerous.

 

I do not use the terms COVID or SARS because these are both incorrect. SARS specifically refers to a Respiratory Syndrome. This virus causes a host of complications which can result in a variety of causes of death. To say this virus causes respiratory distress is like saying McDonalds is an ice cream store. YES, McDonalds sells the ice cream but that is only part of what they provide.

COVID also does not work. Coronavirus Disease. Which disease? This is a virus and the virus can cause a “disease”. For example, a patient can become infected with HIV and a possible outcome is that they develop AIDS. AIDS has a very specific profile and we can predict exactly what systems are impacted in an AIDS patient. That is not the same with hCoV-2019. The virus infects the host and can then choose between many routes to cause different symptoms or dozens of various illnesses. It has options. So if patient A gets hCoV-2019 then develops HACE (high-altitude cerebral edema) due to hypoxia but patient B gets hCoV-2019 and suffers ARDS.. how or why in both situations would anyone say “both patients have COVID”……the only related attribute here is that they both were infected with hCoV-2019.

So this “disease” term is being thrown around. A man that feels fine takes a test and is “COVID positive”. Incorrect, the man does not have a disease, he is infected with a virus. A virus is not a disease. He is infected with hCoV-2019 and will likely not develop any symptoms and will hopefully have a full recovery. Viruses and diseases are not one and the same. Not correcting you on any points here, just speaking to the broader audience that has been using these terms interchangeably.

 

I also do not support forced lockdown and forcing an economy to close. Making a population suffer for a pandemic a government should be well-prepared for is their own fault. That was the purpose of Event 201 and many others. We knew a pandemic was coming at some point and most in the world did little to actually prepare. Quite sad.

  • Mon, Aug 10, 2020 - 07:38am

    #36
    tbp

    tbp

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    Reply to Dr. Mayer, tatagiri, Grayman, Chris Martenson, denalizen, davefairtex

Hi guys, I’m a bit late to this party but here goes!

First of all, thank you Dr. Mayer for more interesting insight into PCR virus sequence matching, clade/mutation families, and an alternative epidemiological perspective.

Ok, so let’s run another example! We are going to take two viruses, both hCoV-2019. Our first sample is from an elderly male in Wuhan from December 2019. Our second sample is from an elderly female in Brazil from July 2020. Both patients died from hCoV-2019 so naturally, we will expect the RdRp match to be 100%. Pretty obvious, right? Absolutely not the case. RNA viruses evolve with natural mutations over time. As the virus learns to better infect host cells it will update its build manual with better instructions for replication and other actions.

That’s pretty crazy, the intelligence behind the actions of the virus. And yet a huge contingent insist on saying viruses aren’t “alive”! They’re the most abundant type of “biological entity”, and it’s hard to say they aren’t biological because even if they require a host cell’s RNA translation machinery, they do template to reproduce, so they’re between 1st density (geosphere) and 2nd density (biosphere), or at lower 2nd density.

These different “strains” of the virus have key differences and this is most obvious when digging deep down into the RdRp. Instead of being a 100% match, the July sample of hCoV-2019’s RdRp was only a 73.67% match. I will not get into the technical breakdown of what the differences are.

Damn, so what does it mean that it’s only a 74% match in terms of false positives? You said OC43 can give a 66% match — is there any data on the prevalence of OC43 in people? And there’s no distinction between alive and dead viral material… So many factors that make it seem like false positives are absurdly high.

As of 4 August, there are over 18.6 million “confirmed cases” but only 100,000 sequenced genomes from patients. That is only 0.5% of “confirmed” patients. As a scientist, I can factually confirm all 100,000 of those patients have/had this virus. For these 18 million people, there is no “proof” that they ever actually had this virus. This is why the case for so many asymptomatic patients makes people think the virus is not very dangerous. I can factually tell you that this virus is extremely dangerous. I can also tell you that based on the testing methods there are likely tens of millions of false positives. There are also false negatives. More importantly, only fractions of populations have actually been tested.

Right, so you’re saying that you believe the rates of false positives are so astronomical that the vast majority of positive asymptomatics are actually the harmless hCoV-OC43 (you said OC38 but you must’ve meant OC43)?

You think it’s extremely dangerous based on the proteins it can target, or based on medical/epidemiological data? Also, do you think it’s very dangerous even if using the known best prevention factors/treatments/cures (i.e. vitamin D + HCQ+zinc + ivermectin + CDS + antioxidants when not using CDS)? Cuz I’m 99% certain it’s no big deal where those cures are available, for most people. I know a few people who had it and are 100% recovered without using any of those (one of them is still slowly recovering sense of smell and taste, which can also happen with flu), using only paracetamol/acetaminophen to reduce fever. In the Hispanosphere, the Big Pharma cartel has been unable to demonize CDS like in the Anglosphere, hence there are people everywhere in Spain and Latin America with CDS bottles in their pockets. You know about the difference in mortality in countries using HCQ vs not. And people are now getting enough vitamin D (unlike in March). Clearly there are people who are very susceptible to the virus (due to health factors such as nutrient deficiencies and toxic burden), but clearly there are those who are not… no matter how many gains-of-function or extra targets it has compared to previous viruses.

China is the best example to provide. There is a known massive coverup happening in China yet we are allowing their lack of data to shape our view of cases? Reports of 80,000+ dead in Wuhan alone. The virus is ripping through China via different waves and now the G clade is attacking the nation. This is simple math. Let’s take the face value number that 1.5% of the American population has been “confirmed” and 3.2% of those have died. You have to know that the situation in China is far, far worse than in America. Let’s just apply the small America numbers to China. 1.5% of the population is 21 million confirmed. 3.2% CFR would be 640,000 dead. Initially, that number seems crazy, but you need to step back and take the population size into account. Something like 3 million dead is more probable. That represents 0.2% of the population. Or apply the 0.048% mortality of the entire population of America, we are back to 670,000. So China alone vastly skews the reality of the global cases and mortality.

While I agree that it’s obviously worse in China than admitted, your estimation may be too high. I think here you’re not taking into account the CCP’s criminal treatment of their subjects, where any and all tactics are acceptable to them, to the point where I suspect they could kill thousands of people infected and nobody would notice, at least not for some time (a proven Stalinist policy adopted and enhanced by the Maoists). I have a lot of complaints about the German government and I’m sure you have too, but if you were living in China, they might have murdered you merely for investigating the virus early on. No other governments, other than DPRK, and maybe a few others like Turkmenistan, Belarus, Saudi Arabia, and maybe some African ones could get away with what the CCP crime gang does. They also had the experience with SARS1 in 2002-2004, so they were better prepared. Neighboring Asian nations also were better prepared for the same reason (and because they knew not to trust CCP).

It is smarter for you to assume every nation is lying to you until proven otherwise. Every nation has virtually nothing to gain from transparency and everything to gain from protecting their national security and investments. Here in Germany, we have a 97% recovery rate from the virus. Yes, we have great health care. Did we magically defeat the virus? No.

I agree with that but it’s only one side of the coin. The other side (incentives) of the coin (coronavirus response image), for many governments, is to make it look worse than it is because that allows them to gain more power/influence. The coronavirus powergrabs may not be obvious in Germany, but in the United States for example, they are clear as day. Both incentive types (sides of the coin) can combine, for example in Spain they are undercounting mortality while at the same time trying to establish a full-on dictatorship by ignoring/sidelining parliament, threatening to illegalize the only real opposition party, fully overtaking the judicial branch under the executive branch, going after the last remaining not-fully-controlled journalists, all while using inflated coronavirus “case” numbers even though nobody is dying or seemingly even significantly symptomatic (they won’t report any details, just “case” numbers).

Does the average person in Germany feel that we have defeated the virus and it is safe to send children back to school? Absolutely not. Because the average German understands that the government is likely withholding information and there is much that we are not being told.

But you also understand that the best treatments are being withheld, right? That would be the #1 withheld information worth knowing about. Could we end the pandemic with the aforementioned best treatment substances, combined with corticosteroids and/or anticoagulants and/or convalescent plasma or monoclonal antibodies for severe cases? Sure looks like it. Other withheld information would seem to be secondary to this.

How many lives has this virus claimed? That is unknown. My estimation is around 7 million. I understand how deadly the virus truly is and while this number seems very high, keep in mind this represents 0.08% of the global population.

Why such a high number (10x the official number)? There are a lot of powerful interests who benefit in making it look worse than it is, more than there are (more local, less powerful) interests who benefit from making it look less bad than it it.

My estimation is around 150 million have been infected so far. This is based on viewing the confirmed genomes that we have on file and understanding how the virus is spreading. This would put the CFR around 4.6%, which is roughly where it is using the known incorrect numbers. I believe my numbers are more realistic for the global population. Please keep in mind that most nations in the world are exceptionally poor and do not have the systems in place to cope with any pandemic. In those nations, which represents billions of people, the loss of life would likely be substantial and never reported due to a lack of resources as nations collapse.

Doesn’t that high number (7.5x the official number) contradict the idea that the virus is extremely dangerous? It means 130 million people are infected but have not gotten themselves tested. That would be either because the symptomology doesn’t warrant it, or because they’re all in poorer countries. Are you saying that over 100 million people in poorer countries are dying from it and yet the globalist technocrats and vaccine pushers are foolishly missing the opportunity to let us know?

How many asymptomatic cases? Also unknown. Given how deadly the virus actually is, the only way that someone can actually have this virus but never show any symptoms is if they have immunity. That is possible as the host may have previously been infected with any other coronavirus, even certain strains of the common cold. That would only account for a small fraction of asymptomatic confirmed cases, the majority are likely false-positives. To take the confirmed case count at face value knowing we are working with exceptionally flawed testing methods is a serious error in judgment.

It’s not only about acquired immunity (previous exposure to same or similar pathogen) — the immune system has several other defense mechanisms. It may be a tricky little beast, with its ability to infect via an unusual (and suspicious) number of biological targets, but I think the idea that the human immune system could not possibly be able to deal with it is underestimating your own power (and how would you explain children’s immunity?).

We can easily beat this virus if everyone wears masks for the next 6 months. We can starve the virus out and no vaccine is required.

I agree that masks are a useful tool, but what about vitamin D, zinc+ionophores, antioxidants, ivermectin, CDS, hesperidin…. why mention only masks? That’s the insane/criminal official recommendation, which ignores effective treatments/cures and preventive factors, and in fact CENSORS them (i.e. us) while they tell us to ONLY wear a mask/muzzle (and in some places FORCE us to wear it anywhere outside even if you’re in the middle of nowhere).

Dr. Martenson’s video today about herd immunity made me realize that he is still, somehow, taking the case counts at face value when we factually know that data is not being reported and or is being manipulated. I generally do not get into these types of topics since it is predominately speculative but I am pretty tired of people downplaying the severity of this virus and that “so many people recover without issues”, as if those patients were properly tested. You show me the genome, I will show you the science. Until then, the patient probably does not have the virus, especially if they are asymptomatic. We are not talking about the common cold here.

Don’t you think it’s like with other viruses, where most people will get exposed to it, but many don’t develop symptoms because their healthy life patterns have allowed them to retain immunocompetence? I have no reason to think I don’t get exposed to the flu every year just as much as anyone else, but I NEVER get the flu — how would you explain that?

I think Dr. Martenson is correct: SARS2 (or hCoV-2019, I like your new name better) has run out of, or is running out of, vulnerable hosts, after the first wave. Symptomology of a 2nd wave (or should it be called the tail end of the 1st wave?) will be limited to the vulnerable population that isolated and weren’t exposed to the 1st wave AND aren’t taking the appropriate precautions beyond just social distancing and mask use (i.e. ensuring optimal vitamin D levels or at least sufficiency + HCQ/ivermectin/CDS prophylaxis).

Do we think the virus just..ran out of people to infect?

Well, it seems more likely it’ll end up infecting everyone to a greater or lesser degree, like influenza, hCoV-OC43, hCoV-229E, and many others. There is the subset of people that for whatever reason can’t fight it effectively, such that viral replication happens faster than their immune system can neutralize viral particles, leading to complications like hyperinflammation (cytokine storm) and hypercoagulation and sometimes pneumonia/ARDS. One reason might be high viral load infections, another major one is clearly vitamin D deficiency, another one is lack of zinc+ionophores/HCQ/ivermectin/CDS prophylaxis, another one might be lack of other nutrients such as vitamin C and other antioxidants, and lack of absorbable animal protein and saturated fats and the accompanying fat-soluble vitamins (happens in vegetarianism and especially veganism), another one is excessive chronic toxic burden, and another one is chronically elevated stress/cortisol which shuts down the immune system. Another one is pre-existing comorbidities such as autoimmune conditions and various so-called age-related diseases. This last one is the only factor that isn’t easily modifiable by behavior pattern changes, which is why we should protect the vulnerable (but without destroying the lives of the healthy population).

Everyone just magically recovered?

That’s what happens with any other virus infection.

Why would we even presume that a majority of the severe cases ever reached the hospital?

In most countries those cases would be counted, if those people ever called emergency/hospital/doctor.

Why would we further then presume that any of these countless home deaths were ever tallied??

We do have excess deaths charts, which would include most people who died at home, at least in developed countries.

Why would we presume the government has the infrastructure to even properly TRACK cases or mortality in a fourth world nation? How can anyone believe that Haiti is capable of COPING with a PANDEMIC?!

Those are great points about third world nations, yep. But their epidemiological curves still look the same, it seems, so far, despite different NPI policies implemented at different stages of the pandemic.

My biggest concern is with asymptomatic cases. Either all of those people have immunity or the tests are wrong. The former is a presumption whereas the latter is factual. We know many tests are faulty and therefore the illusion of so many asymptomatic carriers should be greatly disputed. This is especially the case in western countries. In places like Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, and China many people would likely still have immunities from dealing with SARS. hCoV-OC38 and hCoV-HKU1 (common colds) are also predominantly found in Southeast Asia compared to western nations. In western nations, we would expect at least half of the cases to be from the Rhinovirus and a good portion to be from hCoV-NL63. Does this make sense to everyone? Areas around China have historical exposure to other coronaviruses and we would expect more of the people to potentially possess immunities. Whereas everywhere else in the world did not have those exposures.

But the 4 old hCoVs, primarily OC43 (there is no OC38 right?) and 229B, contribute only up to 15% of the common cold, correct? BTW, if OC43 shares about 66% sequence homology, how similar are the alphacoronaviruses 229B and NL63, or their RdRp sequences, to hCoV-2019?

I will use Manitoba, Canada as my example for asymptomatic patients. They reported 442 cases, 341 of which “recovered” and they reported 4 deaths. Let’s say that 200 of those cases were asymptomatic carriers. Zero symptoms throughout and they had no idea they were infected. How is making a case for them having some magical mystery immunity more sound than realizing the tests are false positives? In the instance with contact tracing and we can confirm that patient 2 was infected from asymptomatic patient 1 then I yield and patient 1 clearly was infected with the virus and must have some type of immunity, but this must surely only account for a fraction of the total global asymptomatic cases. Until science can explain this magical immunity in regions where citizens were likely never previously exposed to coronaviruses, I refuse to believe this narrative when we are working with faulty testing equipment.

What about simply the idea of having highly competent immune systems? I think you and many other people are vastly underestimating the degree of toxicity the average person is constantly exposed to (carb-based diets full of sugar and junk foods, GMOs, glyphosate/pesticides, soya products, various other endocrine disruptors like BPA and PFOA, fluoride, PCBs in seafood, heavy metals in vaccines, seafood, rice, chemtrails, aspartame and MSG, gluten, toxic vegetable fats like canola oil (especially when brominated or heated, except coconut oil), animal antibiotics & growth hormones & soy toxins in non-organic CAFO meat, chronic stress/cortisol which is highly toxic, high EMF exposure even pre-5G, etc). I was there too, until I started researching the lies and coverups in the medical/pharma/health/food/regulatory industry, by reading top natural health websites like Dr. Mercola and NaturalNews. Most people are very far from “healthy”, but they don’t know it because they haven’t been told and haven’t realized yet that they themselves have to do the research. How do you explain many people getting flu symptoms every year, but I never experience any symptoms whatsoever? Is that “magical mystery immunity” or is it immunocompetence?

During Chinese New Year (January 25) we saw the largest migration of humans in the world. Hundreds of millions of people moved around in China and the CCP intentionally allowed international flights to continue. This pushed the virus around the world and by mid-January, we began seeing these family mutations in different parts of the world.

I thought so too, but, at least if Niall Ferguson is to be believed, it looks like flights out of Wuhan/Hubei after January 23rd were in fact carrying only staff. (But they still lied about other critical things, like human-to-human transmission, and got WHO to parrot their official narrative.)

Here are confirmed genome sequences of the virus based on clades (mutation family). The dates here are sequencing dates and not submission dates. Best to assume the submission date was 2 weeks to 1 month prior to the published date that I am providing. (I do not feel like pulling the actual sampling data directly from the database). I will also list the first and second confirmed locations of each clade.

L: 24 Dec – China, Thailand (ORF1b RdRp)
S: 17 Jan – China, USA (non-structural NS8)
O: 21 Jan – USA, Thailand (ORF1a)
G: 24 Jan – China, Germany (ORF1ab, Spike protein)
V: 29 Jan – Italy, Taiwan (NSP6, NSP3)
GH: 3 Feb – Saudi Arabia, France (same Spike protein mutation + NS3)
GR: 24 Feb – Italy, Austria (same Spike protein mutation + Nucleocapsid)

In August we are now seeing further mutations in the Receptor Binding Domain portion of the Spike protein: N439K, E484A (Ireland in G), Y453F (Switzerland in GR), Y505W, V483A (USA in GH)

Please remember that we are dealing with FAMILIES of mutations here, so the mutations that I have listed above are SOME of the key mutations that define each clade, but this only represents a tiny percent and understanding of how many mutations have occurred within each clade.

Based on our current data it appears that L, S, and V have mostly died out. This is expected as the G+ clade began to dominate in circulation by mid-February.

Very interesting. Are all of those mutations selective/advantageous to the virus, or is it rather random? Switching one amino acid for another in the Spike RBD would be a clear example of an advantageous mutation, but how would a change in the nonstructural proteins help the virus?

As a virologist, having studied influenza and hCoV-2019, I can tell you first hand that hCoV-2019 is a pandemic level serious threat that could kill hundreds of millions and become a naturalized part of society (much like cancer).

Here you’re hinting again to this idea that cancer “just happens”, randomly, to random people in random ways, and that it’s not related to lifestyle factors (and some nasty agendas). And that there is no effective cure for cancer. In reality there are tons (over 600 if you count them loosely) of prevention factors and effective treatments, only not officially acknowledged. Did you think the corruption in the medical/health/pharma industry started with Covid? See HERE for yourself. It’s not surprising if you examine who is running the supposed regulatory agencies… read e.g. the Chronic Corruption series, and check out Mark Passio’s breakdown of the monstrosity that is the cancer industry, which was created back in the 1950’s and has a strong incentive to poison the population to sell their astonishingly toxic “chemotherapeutics”.

The vast, vast list of “side-effects” (main effects) of “chemotherapeutic” toxicity includes: immunosuppression, myelosuppression, anemia, typhlitis (intestinal infection), alopecia, infertility, teratogenicity (deformed offspring), organ damage of various kinds (heart, liver, kidney, ear), and secondary neoplasm (i.e. a second tumor!). Symptoms include: cognitive impairment/decline (occurs in 20–30% of cases, so common that it has its own acronym and treatment regimen: PCCI, or post-chemotherapy cognitive impairment), fatigue, neuropathy (generalized pain), paralysis, nausea, vomiting, anorexia, diarrhea (these latter few can then cause malnutrition and dehydration), constipation, abdominal cramps, distended abdomen, fever, chills.

All of the above with a 2-7% chance of curing the cancer and returning to stable homeostasis. But cannabis, one of the most effective cancer cures, must remain illegal because otherwise the “patient” might experience that horrible side-effect known as a “high”!

“Everyone should know that the ‘war on cancer’ is largely a fraud.” — Two-time Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling

“If you really want to dig into the truth of chemotherapy, ask yourself how many of the deceased who died during chemotherapy treatments have their cause of death categorized as “chemotherapy.” To my knowledge, this number is zero. Instead, they are designated as being killed by cancer.” — Mike Adams

“Chemotherapy is an incredibly lucrative business for doctors, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies… The medical establishment wants everyone to follow the same exact protocol. They don’t want to see the chemotherapy industry go under, and that’s the number one obstacle to any progress in oncology.” — Dr. Warner, MD

2019 “estimated” cancer deaths are 606,880. “The most recent year for which reported incidence and mortality data are available lags 2 to 4 years behind the current year due to the time required for data collection, compilation, quality control, and dissemination.” It was too much effort to find actual confirmed cancer mortality in the USA for any year. Not mortality rates, not estimations but actual confirmed mortality. Odd that one needs to dig so far to answer such a basic question.

Just as with influenza and Covid, as you pointed out, most of the official deaths are only indirectly, or hardly at all, caused by the virus. Similarly, for cancer, as you can see if you research some of the links above, most deaths are actually more directly from “chemotherapy”, but 100% of those are labeled as death by cancer. It’s quite astonishing that absurdly toxic chemotherapeutic agents are considered standard treatment, while CDS has been demonized as toxic “bleach” (and HCQ is following behind).

So this “disease” term is being thrown around. A man that feels fine takes a test and is “COVID positive”. Incorrect, the man does not have a disease, he is infected with a virus. A virus is not a disease. He is infected with hCoV-2019 and will likely not develop any symptoms and will hopefully have a full recovery. Viruses and diseases are not one and the same.

Yeah, that constant conflation (calling the virus Covid19) has had my blood boiling since March.

@mihi81
If you compare Spain with UK, Spain has a much higher rate of infections but has the second wave now.

Official Spain data is just as reliable as official Chinese data. You can just discard it, or find non-official sources.

@tatagiri
covid19crusher is wrong. He does not take any NPI data or interventions into account. It also does not take reopening dates or data. There has been clear evidence that NPI were responsible for reduction in cases and rollback of NPI will result in re-emergence of the disease. Chris has been right so far and i will still go back to basics, chris mentioned a few months back. We are flattening the curve because of the below interventions – the virus is not magically sweeping through the population. Still don’t believe me – please look at New Zealand, Taiwan – They probably forgot about covid by now and read it in world news section. They did not even have a wave.

Seems to me you’re the one not taking NPI data into account. I also think “2nd wave” terminology is problematic. Lockdowns kept people away from low-level exposure, so reopening causes them to be exposed to the (tail end of the) 1st wave.

Third wave is coming:
With the schools left to reopen in few weeks and all the contacts happening in indoor spaces is just a perfect recipe for third wave. The latest research shows that kids are more efficient than adults in transmitting the virus.

That’s crazy fear-mongering IMO. There’s not even a strong case for 2nd waves happening, but you’re buying into notions of a 3rd wave and the thin evidence of asymptomatic children spreading it more easily.

Lockdowns Doing Much More Harm Than Good? The question is for whom?? If you ask my 80 year old dad – he will say no.

Not if he’s a hard-headed veteran of wars and worse. It depends on the type of person and their life experiences.

If you ask my kidney transplanted boss or a coworker with a cancer they – will say no.

Only if they only care about themselves and not the well-being of healthy people, economically and socially speaking.

This is a rather rhetoric and political question started in the right wing circles.

Rubbish. It’s called common sense: you don’t want to ruin the lives of billions for the increased safety of weaker members of the population. It’s about quality of life, not just about preserving/extending life at any and all cost.

Also, this is a false dichotomy. economy and coronavirus are not odds with each other. You can have a good economy and without covid – if you do all the things that you need to do NPI, testing, contact tracing etc..

You also leave out the effective prophylaxis/treatments/cures — why??

china has shown that, NZ has shown that.

China killed its whistleblower virologists and treat their people like absolute garbage. NZ’s policies are also questionable. They are good models ONLY if you’re purely considering stamping out the virus, without caring about stamping out your ancestors’ hard-earned freedoms. The trade-off is enormous… but do you even really know what trade-off I’m talking about? Have you ever lived under a dictatorship? Or have you studied history? When have authoritarian governments ever rolled back powergrabs?

This is a rather dangerous rhetoric which is distracting from actual work to be done to solve the crisis. It all started with Steve Hilton (political commentator) saying You know, that famous phrase, ‘The cure is worse than the disease?’ That is exactly the territory we are hurtling towards.

Yeah, right, THAT’s how it started. Some guy you happened to have heard. Like half of us haven’t been saying the same thing pretty much from the beginning. I’m as right-wing as you’re an astronaut.

You think it is just the coronavirus that kills people? This total economic shutdown will kill people.” Later Trump and most right wing media used this as talking points.

It’s an obvious truth that you wish to shy away from in your analysis… is that not a political talking point that has been unconsciously drilled into your mind? You’re not one of the people being thrown into poverty due to the lockdowns, so why should you care, right?

@Grayman
We know that where lockdowns are lifted, the disease reappears quickly and that after a lag, deaths rise also.

I haven’t seen that… Most deaths were due to putting people on ventilators (treating it as a “respiratory syndrome” because it was named SARS-CoV-2), and it seems that most severe cases wouldn’t become severe if given in time the known treatments (the most effective of which are suppressed and officially never discussed). Once severe, even just using corticosteroids, anticoagulants, remdesivir, and convalescent plasma, along with no good nutrient recommendations, and a good dose of fear and isolation, the mortality rate has plummeted.

The two theories presented here by Dr Mayer (false positive test results that actually record artefacts of previous coronavirus battles) and by Nordicjack (the ADE effect explaining the apparent immunity of children) are two theories that I find easy to believe because they are simple explanations for some rather baffling anomalies. They seem to pass the test of Ockham’s Razor. But we’ll see.

I thought traces of neutralized virus material is shedded within about 2 months, not years. Someone who had SARS1 in 2003 doesn’t have any SARS-CoV material by now, but may well currently have some OC43 or some dead hCoV-2019 from 8 weeks ago still being shedded. I think a better explanation than ADE is that children haven’t had the same chance to compromise their immune system yet with the aforementioned toxins or the development of nutrient deficiencies due to bad eating patterns or lack of sunshine. For children younger than 6 it’s not even the same game, as their brains (frequency tuners) are in baseline theta brainwave states and so aren’t tuned into the beliefs of the collective consciousness in the same way as alpha-beta adult brains.

@Chris Martenson
Bottom line: We are in agreement that cases fall after a first peak. We are in disagreement over the reasons for that. Many seem to think that NPIs alone account for that. Maybe, but the data simply isn’t there for that theory either. I cannot account for why such different country-level approaches all produce the same sorts of graphs. One would think that the weaker NPI countries/regions/states would climb, begin to level out, have a plateau, and then fall slowly. Not what I’m seeing. The data says quick explosion, and an equally quick decline.

As I’ve been saying for months, most likely it’s about immunocompetence. The same people suppressing the effective treatments/cures are also telling us (by omission) that our immune systems and health status play no role. It’s absurd.

Like Jim H said,

We know that children tend not to get symptomatic cases of the disease, and neither do they tend to be spreaders of the disease. There is something in the realm of normal, human biological variability that, if not imparting outright immunity, seems to impart a high degree of protection. What is this factor?

Healthy lifestyle, rather than unhealthy lifestyle (most people) leading to immunoincompetence. Same reason some people experience no flu symptoms beyond maybe a mild throat ache.

@denalizen
Wear a mask, the virus goes away, we can all get back to business in relatively short order. Don’t wear a mask and this nightmare continues.

Seems to me you’re boxing yourself into the false paradigm they want you in — one in which the only relevant factor is wearing a mask/muzzle while they censor all the effective treatments and prevention factors and have you ignore the obvious relevance of your own health and lifestyle choices.

@davefairtex
As a matter of policy, should we destroy the economy to push infections off into the future? Sweden didn’t do that. They suffered roughly half the economic damage of the rest of Europe. And now there don’t seem to be very many deaths there. Even if their numbers aren’t accurate, we can judge trends, if not absolute numbers. Deaths are trending lower. Dramatically lower. They are not all hiding in their rooms to bring this about. We should ask our Swedish readers for an on-the-ground report.

Why? At this point, I believe individual testimony more than Pharma-sponsored Mainstream Media. The lies from our Newspapers of Record are endless – whether they be politically motivated, or financially motivated.

Exactly. We need to understand the agendas even more than we need to understand the virus. One of those agendas is having us completely ignorant about our own health, and what it actually means to be healthy.

 

  • Mon, Aug 10, 2020 - 08:19am

    #37

    Jim H

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    Very well reasoned contribution to the conversation tdp!

tdp said,

Is that “magical mystery immunity” or is it immunocompetence?

It’s funny … I was thinking of my earlier post regarding children as I read your post and then you quoted it : )

Another angle on this issue is Vitamin D.  The fact that Vit. D deficiency correlates so highly with bad Covid-19 outcomes, and that Vitamin D plays a biochemical role in supporting immune function, is another clue in this direction… i.e. this speaks to the importance of immunocompetence.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200702/More-evidence-on-vitamin-D-deficiency-and-death-rates-from-COVID-19.aspx

The researchers report that the prevalence of severe vitamin D deficiency (defined as 25(OH)D less than 25 nmol/L) strongly and significantly correlated with the COVID-19 death rate per million people.

The correlation coefficient of 0.76 indicates that approximately 58% of COVID-19 mortality can be explained by severe deficiency in vitamin D, says the team.

 

  • Mon, Aug 10, 2020 - 10:39am

    #38

    davefairtex

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    things we can do

I’m going to echo what Jim said.  TBP said things I was thinking, yet couldn’t seem to articulate properly.

Specifically, our “managers” in charge have said zip about the individual actions we can take to help reduce the impact of the virus.  JM too.  He was so very technical, but said zip about how we can, individually, prepare our bodies to deal with the invader most effectively.  All we could possibly do is wear a mask.  That’s our only option.

I much prefer Chris’s approach.  “Here’s what we know works.  Worst case, it doesn’t help. Best case – it saves your life.”

And of course there’s all the prophylactic approaches as well.  India is leading the way with HCQ/prophylaxis.

As this progresses, I find myself less and less interested in what Pharma (and their tools) tells me is truth.  I refuse to be terrified.  Tell me how to defend myself.  That’s what I want.

  • Tue, Aug 11, 2020 - 07:02am

    #39
    tbp

    tbp

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    Are confirmed cases an illusion?

Yeah, it’s a narrative that’s nothing short of insane.

The Angloshpere is also badly missing out on a very effective (yet demonized more than any other) treatment and prophylactic agent: chlorine dioxide.

Also, a clarification: I shouldn’t really lump China and NZ together. NZ’s policies are pretty borderline, but it’s not really comparable to CCP crimes.

  • Thu, Aug 13, 2020 - 07:41pm

    #40
    Dr. Jurgen Mayer

    Dr. Jurgen Mayer

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    Reply To: Are confirmed cases an illusion?

Right, so you’re saying that you believe the rates of false positives are so astronomical that the vast majority of positive asymptomatics are actually the harmless hCoV-OC43 (you said OC38 but you must’ve meant OC43)?

Yes, OC43, thanks. I was suggesting that testing is simply quite faulty. Asymptomatic carriers are either from faulty tests or the patient has some type of prior coronavirus immunity, likely from one of the coronaviruses of the common cold.

You think it’s extremely dangerous based on the proteins it can target, or based on medical/epidemiological data? Also, do you think it’s very dangerous even if using the known best prevention factors/treatments/cures (i.e. vitamin D + HCQ+zinc + ivermectin + CDS + antioxidants when not using CDS)? Cuz I’m 99% certain it’s no big deal where those cures are available, for most people.

If we put this virus in a time machine back to 1900 then hundreds of millions likely die around the world. With our best prevention factors for pre and post-infection we can do a very good job of greatly subduing the virus and keeping the morality relatively low. While the virus is very dangerous, we are in a good position to help “guide” the outcome of this pandemic.

Doesn’t that high number (7.5x the official number) contradict the idea that the virus is extremely dangerous? It means 130 million people are infected but have not gotten themselves tested. That would be either because the symptomology doesn’t warrant it, or because they’re all in poorer countries. Are you saying that over 100 million people in poorer countries are dying from it and yet the globalist technocrats and vaccine pushers are foolishly missing the opportunity to let us know?

Yes, mostly in poor nations that cannot cope. Testing is not available, so that is simply not an option. People can push incentives for vaccines all they want but in my opinion, one will not be coming and the people at the top pushing those narratives must surely be aware of this. There is no incentive for a G20 nation to create a vaccine to help those suffering in Haiti or Burkino Faso. These are just my opinions though. If testing is lacking globally, yet the virus is ripping across the globe, it stands to reason that tens of, if not hundreds of millions of more people may have already been infected. We simply do not know. I am simply trying to raise these as questions to show people that perhaps the reality of this is far, far greater than we realize. Or perhaps that is not correct. We will never know.

I agree that masks are a useful tool, but what about vitamin D, zinc+ionophores, antioxidants, ivermectin, CDS, hesperidin…. why mention only masks?

Taking care of one’s body should be top priority but these are luxuries for first-world nations. I can provide these great recommendations for people but living in third world nations can mostly just step outside for sunshine. They barely have food or drinking water. Quite a tall task for them to prepare their bodies for this.

But the 4 old hCoVs, primarily OC43 (there is no OC38 right?) and 229B, contribute only up to 15% of the common cold, correct? BTW, if OC43 shares about 66% sequence homology, how similar are the alphacoronaviruses 229B and NL63, or their RdRp sequences, to hCoV-2019?

I likely wrote that post after hours and kept putting OC38. OC38 is a human coronavirus, that most have never heard of. 15% is correct. I will run some alignments to determine the RdRp matches and get back to you.

What about simply the idea of having highly competent immune systems

This is valid and it should sit alongside faulty testing. We are giving too much faith to tests that we know are faulty.

Are all of those mutations selective/advantageous to the virus, or is it rather random? Switching one amino acid for another in the Spike RBD would be a clear example of an advantageous mutation, but how would a change in the nonstructural proteins help the virus?

There have been well over 600 mutations in hCoV-2019 since it was first sequenced. Your typical amino acid mutation is random and is little to no impact on the virus. Do not look at the RBD mutations as being key. There are mutations happening throughout the virus. There are heavy mutations occurring in ORF1b compared to minimal mutations in the RBD. I was sharing a keyhole view into a much larger picture. It is too early to tell if any of these RBD mutations have any impact on host cells. NSPs are important helpers for the matrix and provide various roles, check this out, specifically about SARS-CoV.

Here you’re hinting again to this idea that cancer “just happens”, randomly, to random people in random ways, and that it’s not related to lifestyle factors (and some nasty agendas)

Apologies! No, I am trying to infer to hCoV-2019 will simply become endemic to society, nothing more. Not something seasonal. Perhaps cancer was the wrong example.

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