Another fantastic source of financial education
I highly recommend the work of Daniel Amerman, CFA, for an objectively structural perspective on the economy and how to invest. His “cycles of crisis and the containment of crisis” conceptual framework and Red/Black Matrix based on those cycles, organize investing options into logical sequences based on how the Fed is handling the economy. It uses an understanding of the linkages among investment classes and, more importantly, how those linkages change in logical, predictable sequence depending on where we are in the Fed’s crisis and containment cycles, to project how various asset classes will perform as a result of Fed policies. http://www.danielamerman.com
Daniel Amerman, CFA, for an objectively structural perspective on the economy and how to invest.
So: if we track Amerman back 20 years, how well did he predict the stock and real estate markets? Did he say “invest, invest, invest!” for the last decade? Did he say “get out!” in 2007 and “get in” in 2008?
One of the problems with Fed tracking, is the Fed behavior does not track equity results well at all. Which is why Mike Green and others have models that acknowledge the Fed’s limits. Just curious how Amerman thinks about it.