A Peek into the Bitcoin Rabbit Hole
I appreciate your experience and perspective, XZBD2. Thank you for joining in.
I also appreciate those expressing doubts and wanting clarifications. I have wondered about these same issues.
I think it was MM who posted an article of the underground network of commerce in Pakistan where BTC is illegal. (a different article on the topic is here) Consulting, data entry, accounting work is done online and paid in BTC. Those with BTC are unable to convert BTC to the local currency at an exchange, but they can buy goods with BTC from outside Pakistan and have the goods shipped in.
And, the Pakistani government itself is now mining BTC!
Commerce in BTC continues underground, and the price has increased since the ban.
very clever ao which i is why i opt out of discussions with you. so you are a savvy investor just doing due diligence ? you don’t think much of my intelligence do you? fair enough but having grown up on the streets i learned never to bullshit a bullshitter.
you have been trolling any discussion of crypto for years. you are not doing due diligence you are simply trolling.
or perhaps i am mistaken and you are sincere after years of trolling you are actually wanting to “enter”.
okay let’s play that game i have a few minutes to waste. this site has a deal with new harbor. you get a free consult then you pay for their info. seems fair. i have given you and everyone here tons of free advice and information. so in our little game it is now time for you to pay me for doing YOUR due diligence for YOU. which btw as i said is readily available for free with a few clicks.
so you want me to answer your questions ? fine let me know if you wish to avail yourself of my knowledge of over 9 years in crypto and what you are willing to pay for that. i am after all a capitalist and my time is worth something don’t you think? btw i don’t recall you expressing any gratitude for providing what i have for free. seems somewhat rude and inconsiderate. based on previous experience one last bit of free advice: don’t get involved in crypto
tag you are it
Is everyone who questions you trolling you? Are you above someone having a differing opinion or views? Do you realize you called yourself a bull****er, my friend? But I said anything of the sort. And I never said anything negative about your intelligence. On the contrary, I think you are highly intelligent. I simply asked how people get out of a large BTC position quickly. Do you think that is unimportant? Why would you share so much information about getting in (which I appreciate) but then take offense if someone requests information about getting out? It doesn’t make any sense.
I’ve been posting here for 12 years and have shared a lot of very useful information. I never asked for a dime in return and never will but, even so, I don’t begrudge you asking. Your time is certainly worth something and has value. But you make me wonder why now you would ask for compensation but not before? Again, it doesn’t make any sense.
I’m presently in the process of buying a house for cash but discovered that BTC is not as rapidly and readily accessible for that transaction as are FRNs. That was the basis of my questioning. It might behoove you not to read more into something than is there.
Peace be with you.
I didn’t say governments could stop it. I said they could make it illegal which in turn makes it irrelevant.
Whenever I ask a pessimistic yet very basic question about bitcoin I get accused of not putting in the effort to learn about it and then offered to watch a 1.5 hour documentary on it. I’m not interested in doing that right now, maybe later. I want a very simple question answered.
I get the impression from VTGothic that the future will be set free from the central bankers by an unstoppable rise of BTC through the uncontrollable interwebs. I find this highly improbable, as naive as I was 10 years ago thinking that if everyone bought gold coins we’d be set free.
Anyone who believes they will be able to escape central bank tyranny via the person-to-person transfer of bitcoin, please explain to me how one will convert that bitcoin into the new dollars, whatever they may be, and then into 100 acres of land you might like to buy, IF the government decides to not allow it or creates large barriers to do so? Government controls the title for things like houses, cars and stocks. You can do all the fancy stuff you want with a network of bitcoin but if you can’t bring it back into the real world then it’s useless. It’s a simple question I haven’t seen answered.
I agree that banning bitcoin at this point seems unlikely given the parties now jumping into it. What I see as more likely is that it gets incorporated into a new financial system that emerges from the chaos when this one blows up. In my opinion the governments have allowed bitcoin to flourish because they wanted to study it; who knows, maybe they had a part in creating it, I have no idea. You can be sure they have a plan for it in the new system. And it might already be getting incorporated, I have no idea. You honestly believe that they would just sit back and let this new system usurp theirs that they have spent over 100 years building?
I may come off as anti-bitcoin but I’m not. I really wanted to buy some a few months ago but I have no money; it’s tied up in pet rocks. I probably should have sold some to free up cash.
I think it offers a great profit opportunity to take advantage of money printing, and it may well take holders into the new financial system holding some financial wealth. It will not allow you to escape the clutches of central bankers.
“banks are more dangerous than standing armies” thomas jefferson
“we can’t beat the bank of england therefore i am retracting the declaration of independence” thomas jefferson
“what sort of government have you given us mr. franklin?”
“a republic madam but i doubt you can keep it. the only question is how long it will take you to fuck it up” ben franklin
mark as i said your question has been answered many times by me and others. it is fud which comes up all the time. that said the issue is a little complex and might require a lot of time. i don’t wish to spend anymore time than i already have explaining these things. so i gave you a simple answer to your simple question. then i proceeded tp post links which go into more detail.
you then respond you don’t have time to watch a video. btw links are posted on pp everyday on a multitude of subjects for the very reason of people not having time to spend explaining the minutiae of a subject.
why is it incumbent on me to provide more information and spend my time in doing so, when you will not spend the time to watch/read info provided? is your time more valuable than mine?
as for not having any money, i posted numerous tips on coins to buy that have done very well. i recommended ether when it was $600 it has since tripled in 3 months. i recommended polkadot it has quadrupled in the 6 weeks since i recommended it. there are lots of others. it does not take much to invest and this year is the year of crypto. it is an opportunity to make piles of money but more importantly to your point, they can make it illegal but they can’t make it irrelevant because we are many and they are few.
I don’t know how this will turn out, and don’t mean to imply that I do. I think there is a battle coming, and here’s how I see it lining up – recognizing I could be wrong.
Central banks will continue to dilute their respective currencies, stripping purchasing power out of their economies. A lot of ordinary people will be impoverished as a result. But even high net worth individuals and corporations will be hurt by that printing, just not as badly. Individuals (even of modest means) and companies that see it coming will divert what they can into hedges and havens. Bitcoin is one such; pms are another. In my opinion, bitcoin is the better option, but that’s a judgment call.
Bitcoin is singular in the value realm because of (a) its hard cap, and (b) its regularized release of new coins toward that cap, and (c) the squeeze effect of its 4-year halving cycle, and (d) its global decentralized structure which has the virtue of making it (damned near) impossible to master by any government or cabal (demonstrated, btw, in 2017 when even 51% of miners and exchanges and influential people could not change its core structure because the plebian node operators refused to go along). It is this virtuous nature of bitcoin that has attracted the attention of high net worth individuals and corporations who are looking for an alternative to increasingly diluted fiat currencies.
At some point, governments will seek to exercise control over bitcoin. Governments in various places have already tried and failed. They will continue to try; they will surely come up with some strong incentives to discourage people from participating in the bitcoin alternative – especially the average citizens who get the worst of the economic pillage faltering governments direct at their own citizens.
I can even see a possible governmental approval of various alt-coins while banning bitcoin because alt-coins can be controlled in ways bitcoin cannot due to their centralized character; all alt-coins have choke points where government can threaten persons. Bitcoin is singularly free of that kind of pressure, therefore likely to be the target of efforts to stop it. But that’s also its strongest defense against suppression. Meanwhile governments will issue tokenized versions of their own fiat in an effort to confuse and misdirect ordinary people who want to join the exodus of big money from the dying currency.
I am confident governments will fail in their effort to stymie bitcoin. This is where you are most likely to disagree with me, and in the end you might be right if you maintain governments can section off the bitcoin economy by making it illegal to convert it into fiat or to transact in bitcoin. But I think such a move will at worst only slow bitcoin’s adoption for some period of time, and might hasten it (as has happened in India and Nigeria). And I think that the worse the integrity of a fiat currency when that move is made, the shorter the time before retailers of goods and services conclude that they will die if they don’t participate in the bitcoin grey or black market, off-books economy. Some will opt to die, some will opt to enter the bitcoin market and take the risks. That market will start out on shaky ground but will integrate vertically, then horizontally if the government doesn’t change its tune.
When bitcoin becomes the only coin whose value can be trusted to hold up in a world of inflating fiats – and not only hold up, but to increase in real purchasing power – gradually, then quickly, rational economic actors will opt to use it, governments be damned. (Nigeria and Venezuela demonstrate this, and not them alone.)
As happened in the old Soviet Union, I’ll bet governments will eventually turn blind eyes to those secondary economies because they will become the primary cause of what sound economy remains in the country. That’s the role grey and black markets have played many times in many places across history. That does not mean there will be no persecutions and no risk; it means such economies become essential to governments that want to continue to exist, once conditions become sufficiently dire on the street.
In the end, I think bitcoin will force governments to become more fiscally conservative. They will have to rein in their profligate spending and (most of) their patronage, or they’ll collapse and be replaced by governors who respect the fiscal discipline bitcoin enforces.
I don’t think this is going to be easy, or trouble-free. I think that with or without bitcoin the world’s people are in for a world of hurt – the more so because the world’s would-be rulers are coordinating their debasing assault on we hoi polloi. But I think the hope of protection (never mind salvation) through gold and silver is gone; they’re already under the thumb of governmental manipulation, and if that proves not enough, the miners are easily threatened or nationalized.
It might be that in the end governments will find a way to nationalize bitcoin mining (at least Venezuela, Pakistan, and Iran – now possibly Russia – have some coordination between domestic miners and government that divides the benefits of the mining). Perhaps the world’s governments will figure out how to coordinate with each other enough to totally corrupt the bitcoin protocol and system. It would require finding and cracking down on all of the node operators. I think that’s highly unlikely, but I can’t completely rule it out. You might think it’s highly likely – again, a matter of interpretation and opinion based on what we each believe about bitcoin’s structure on the one hand, and the power and willingness of the world’s governments to cooperate on the other. Time will resolve that. However, assuming the worst case – that there’s a high likelihood, or just a reasonable prospect, of governments finding a way to destroy or ultimately coopt bitcoin as they have gold and silver – we’re left with either giving it a try regardless, or not. I’ll give it a try.
I don’t think governments will coordinate with one another sufficiently to pull of the global destruction of bitcoin’s network. I notice, for example, that they’re demonstrating they can’t coordinate on the long term suppression of gold and silver; gold especially. China, India, and Russia in particular have been stashing gold for a decade, preparing for the dethroning of the dollar and the global competition for next reserve currency, or for their place in regional settlement baskets. Some country is soon going to peg or convert their economy to bitcoin – probably some small country pegged to the dollar to their increasing hurt. That problem (for the US) will then expand.
Following the logic of that development, increased international economic and political chaos and competition is more likely coming, imo, Davos notwithstanding.
In the midst of that growing chaos, bitcoin is well-designed to provide a standard of monetary integrity that will allow for trustable international exchange, at P2P, B2B, and State levels. With the arrival of very inexpensive/free transfer rates of even very small amounts of bitcoin (via apps like Strike that operate on the Lightning Network, integrated into existing payment systems like Visa, Paypal, etc.), the current uncertainty about bitcoin as a payment rail will evaporate in the heat of daily commercial transactions.
I think bitcoin has a very strong likelihood of emerging from the decade or three of coming chaos as the international currency of first resort. It might even shorten the hard times. Heck, it just might manage to coordinate the world to an economic standard that no State can manipulate or wield as a weapon. If so, the bitcoin maximalist vision of a second, this time global, renaissance just might happen.
A tad utopian to be sure, and hard to countenance in the midst of this Fourth Turning. But every dark night Fourth is followed by a rising sun First. Despite my default midnight worldview, I’m putting my faith in the sunrise view of the young adults who make up the bitcoin corps and are busy talking to one another about their vision for a better tomorrow. They are the “cyberhornets” Michael Saylor has seen. They’re smart and dedicated – when I read their works and listen in on their conversations I really do think of the US’s founding generation. They are realists, anchored in early success in traditional business and finance, committed to realizing the promise of bitcoin’s virtues.
I’m prepared to bank on them because, frankly, if they’re wrong I won’t be any worse off than I would soon be in a world in which bitcoin never existed. They offer the hope; bitcoin’s just their animating and instantiating tool.
At a time in history when we can either go for broke or become broke, I say ‘what the hell.’ The existing system’s going to eat every one of us on the way to its own demise anyhow. So, truly: what have we got to lose? And what do we stand to gain, however we each weigh the odds?
Michael Burry recently tweeted:
Looking for a way that “Life finds a way” past the dilemma where
1) BTC is an effective store of value in an uncontrolled money printing setting, and
2) the oligarchy has great power to crush/curtail competing currencies.
A black or grey market
This meshes with what several others here have said, including VTGothic above.
I think the two tiered money system makes sense. BTC could be forced into a grey market system where it stores value, and offers away to move funds past national capital controls.
Example: A family could move funds stored in BTC restrictive country past the capital controls at the nations boundary. The wife gets on a plane and flies to BTC permissive country X. She purchases a Nano Ledger and emails her husband the key. He transfers BTC to the wife’s Ledger and closes all of his local accounts, boards an airplane and joins her in the BTC permissive country.
Your example of flying to a bitcoin friendly country reminds me of a patient I saw (when the Caymans were an effective tax/wealth dodge) in April, He came in very, very uncomfortable, as an emergency referral, from a MD friend , but was unable to sit. It quickly became evident he had a florid ischio rectal abscess (very painful peri anal abscess) and insisted he needed it immediately drained as he was on a flight to the Cayman Islands in a few hours to access his money, made imperative by the tax deadlines. I did not think it wise to accede to his demands from a medical perspective (he needed to not get on that plane), I cannot forget the pain he must have suffered over the next 10 hours (all for tax avoidance).