A Peek into the Bitcoin Rabbit Hole
VTGothic, I see why you are a BTC “maximalist.” Thank you for explaining.
Bitcoin is the revolution. It is decentralized, global, censorship resistant, etc., and so cannot be stopped. It threatens to change how we do business in very many ways. There’s no founder and no controlling organization to threaten or persecute. Thus, no way to keep Bitcoin under state authority. Bitcoin is an existential threat to the status quo.
What do you mean it can’t be stopped? All they have to do is make it illegal. In order to buy anything of significance it must, even today, be registered with some form of the state so why would bitcoin be immune to this state verification? Maybe some form of crypto will be incorporated into a new financial system, who knows. But anyone who thinks that the new monetary system being schemed up by the central bankers is going to allow for greater financial freedom for the average person is delusional. The bankers will institute whatever financial system they want, and any alternative system will be dealt with as they see fit.
I’m always wary of anyone who professes to predict with certainty how the future will unfold. Too much like the gold bugs 10 years ago, it’s based on emotion and an unwillingness to look at the elephant in the room that contradicts their predictions. Just like we were blind to how effective the PM price suppression would be, because we wanted it to not be true, the BTC cheerleaders are blind to how easily the government could shut it down, when it decides it’s time.
So according to the exchange Mohammed posted, it will cost me 2% or $5,000 to trade my BTC in for FRNs? Not cheap but not entirely unreasonable either compared to precious metals premiums or real estate transactions, for example. Outrageous though compared to stock, bond, or cash transactions.
For this exchange, it says the daily buy-in limit is $500? That seems ridiculously low. And the monthly limit is $15,000? That also seems very low
Then it says the daily withdrawal limit is $100,000. So let’s say BTC goes up 4x and I now have $1 million worth. Does that mean it will take me 10 days to take it out if I decide to do so?
That leads me to another question. Michael Saylor is looking to own $1 billion in BTC total or thereabouts? Is that correct? So let’s say he decides to sell half at one point for various and sundry capex. Selling $500 million through the one exchange would take 5,000 days or 13.7 years? Let’s say he decides to sell through 50 exchanges to speed things up (which is a tremendous amount of work). That still takes him 100 days!
So how do these big buys carry out these large transactions with reasonable efficiency and costs and how can a small time schmuck like me use the same mechanism so I’m not spending endless hours and days at a computer just trying to move my money around? There’s got to be a better way.
I’m certainly no expert, but I will add my opinion. I believe it is not just the ethos that is driving the adoption, though when you develop in an environment without intellectual property rights it becomes a larger motivator and without that barrier to information flow innovation occurs too fast to even keep up with. The main driver is the network effect with the more people that join the network the more valuable it and you become. The main reason I don’t think our government will ban it is that it has become too powerful of tool. If you listen to what the regulators at the SEC and OCC are saying, they make it clear their objective is to make sure the businesses are compliant with the rules and regulations that they are working to clarify as quickly as a giant government bureaucracy can. There are now crypto banks, crypto loans, soon or possibly already crypto mortgages, crypto futures, crypto art and other collectables. Soon crypto financial instruments of all kinds, stocks bonds, derivatives and yet to be imagined. Even payment of taxes( only one state so far). There will be no reason to leave back into the fiat world. If you use the Brave browser you get paid in crypto to suffer through the ads or use Rokfin to earn crypto for providing content. Yes, Visa is paring with companies such a Zap (strike app) to offer “free” nearly instantaneous money transfer anywhere in the world. (Note there is no cap gains tax, because they, not you, hold the crypto while it is being transferred and it happens fast enough there is little risk of currency swings.) While bitcoin was promoted as anonymous, as the sad story of Dread Pirate Roberts illustrates, it is anything but, as the blockchain is right there containing all the transactions and the FBI was able to track them, even those of the corrupt FBI agents, who thought they were covering their tracks. Since it is open source there are thousand of projects out there working on applying this technology to just about anything you can think of, file storage, shipping, games, even getting around bitcoins inherent transparency. I think a lot more people are going to lose their job to a crypto currency long before they have to worry about a robot taking it. They won’t replace the job they just will be made obsolete. Who would put money in a savings account in a bank when you can easily earn 8% on a stable coin in an insured depository, that you could then transfer anywhere in the world is seconds for free or a few pennies? Note for those that haven’t jumped in yet the biggest hurdle is that in many cases there is no one in charge of your transaction so if you screw up there is no one to turn to but yourself and it is always nicer to be able to blame someone else for your problems.
clearly ao you are someone who will find a problem for every solution. there are lots of options. i posted one. don’t like it? there are a number of search engines from google to duck duck go. you can get all your answers with a few clicks.
fielding your argumentative red herrings has lost its allure.
as for michael saylor he is a high net worth individual. his company is a large corporate investor . as would be expected schmucks like you wait in line schmucks like him don’t have a line. but when you actually own some crypto you will understand the process much better and you can find an exchange the will treat you like a high net worth schmuck. or go to localbitcoins and deal p2p
excellent post alphabet.
it is refreshing to have people in the conversation who are “well reasoned and insightful”
@sand_puppy: I don’t think I’m a maximalist. I do hold a few other coins. And I have some pms. Heck, I even have a small IRA! (gasp! shudder!) 😉 But when I follow the logic I end up seeing Bitcoin as the last coin standing – largely because of its unique properties vs. both fiat and alt coins. I can see other coins existing, but they’ll all need to link to either the fiat regime or bitcoin to have purpose, and I’m not sure how valuable the fiat regime’s currency will be by mid-century.
The effort by several countries to ban bitcoin have failed. Even China has found it a difficult cockroach to stomp out. India’s gone back and forth, and Nigeria’s government is now at war with itself over its desire to ban bitcoin and its inability to do so. Germany jailed a lawbreaker for 2 years for computer crimes and confiscated his cold wallet but could not get him to reveal his access code. As a result, now that the guy’s released he can go anywhere in the world he wishes, get another cold card, enter his passphrase and access his coins. Germany can’t stop that, except at any exchanges over which they can exercise command and control; but the guy can bypass regulated exchanges and convert btc to fiat via P2P networks the same way people are operating around the law in China, Nigeria, India, etc. when necessary. You think the US will prove more capable than China? I don’t; we, at least, still have some legal protections the Chinese don’t. And less surveillance.
Americans tend to see the whole world and all events in domestic terms. But there’s a lot going on out there beyond our borders, and we’re increasingly behind in many ways, especially tech related. The cutting edge for bitcoin adoption, implementation and integration ain’t here; the lessons to be learned about government’s actual power over bitcoin is to be learned where that battle’s being played out – and that’s overseas.
In many ways, the US is a paper tiger, dangerous for our claws but increasingly impotent. Adopting and accommodating bitcoin is our last hope to find economic stability and recover some global leadership. Otherwise, only empire decline is before us. A few in Congress understand. Our government is mostly scary only to us Americans. It’s a charade.
you have a better chance of getting hit by lightning, while standing on your head doing yoga and driving a dog sled across to sahara during a solar eclipse with mercury being retrograde, than bitcoin being stopped by a government by being made illegal.
is it possible? let me know when you have a dog sled and we can work through the probabilities.
bitcoin is a network that is run on thousands of computers. it is the most powerful computer network on the planet.
to stop btc would require stopping every one of those computers. it would require shutting off all electricity on the entire planet (wouldn’t work thanks to the magic of off grid facilities) it would require shutting down the internet. is all that possible? i will let you do the calculations.
i think charlie munger said something about incentives. so all world governments will do irreparable harm to every human on the planet to shut down btc? okay
now can governments make it illegal to convert it to their counterfeit fiat currency? absolutely. at some point the probably will. at which point btc will become a money for p2p transactions outside the purview of government. think prohibition. did not stop alcohol consumption but did create an organized crime network and made millionaires of people like the kennedy’s. ditto the silly war on drugs. states are now legalizing pot and the feds will soon. one of the best investments now is mso cannabis stocks. also psychedelics are not far behind. you see mark where i come from we have a saying “pass a law create a business’
now of course the probability gets much closer to zero with a us senator being a btc hodler, black rock dabbling, mass mutual invested, fidelity mining btc and custodying, morgan stanley and jp morgan investing, coinbase issuing an ipo worth over $100 billion ( i think the supreme court would be backed up for centuries with all those 1st amendment cases.
but hell mark this issue has been addressed ad infinitum here by me and others. it falls under the category of fud. this thread is “a peek into the bitcoin rabbit hole’ clearly you don’t know where the rabbit hole is let alone peeked into it. no one here has said you had to . you were invited politely to take a peek. if you don’t want to that is fine and dandy. as adam has said on more than one occasion “take what you need and leave the rest” obviously there is nothing here for you.
the skeptics here won’t watch this but it is nonetheless educational
i suggest a read of “the bitcoin standard” by safiedean ammous for anyone interested in an honest exploration of btc and actually money in general
first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you then you win
” the little guy will always win if he is right and he keeps coming” abbie hoffman
I’m having a time trying to figure out how to connect an old MEW paper wallet to the ENS refund site. And suggestions?
You consider someone doing due diligence about not only how to enter a position but also how to exit a position as finding a problem for every solution? Forgive me for saying this but when you talk like that, it sounds like something a timeshare salesman would say (i.e. the Roach motel trap). To me, it’s just as important to know how and when to exit a position as it is to know how and when to enter one. For virtually any position one would enter, one would choose to exit it at some point (or perhaps be forced to exit it) and should be prepared for that eventuality. To not consider that strikes me as folly. Why do I detect a distinct aversion by so many HODLers to address this issue? As a contrarian, the beating of the buy-buy-buy drum is often a signalling to start thinking about sell-sell-sell.