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A Contrarian possibility

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  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 06:56am

    #1

    jpitre

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    A Contrarian possibility

A Contrarian possibility ………..

 

However much I may disagree with the policies and actions followed by our current  administration (and the last for that matter), I do believe that most in and around the White House are intelligent albeit misguided insofar as righting the ship.

 

On the other hand, I wonder if ………….  Suppose you were sitting at the desk in the Oval Office facing a collapsing economy, debt beyond imagination, 2 wars with no easy way out, a dysfunctional health insurance system, oil supplies in a precarious state and an unworkable monetary system, just to name a few of the bigger problems — what would you do?

 

Well, you could let the banks go bust, (of course the real wealth remains untouched and controlled by the same people)  rein in spending to match tax collections and generally take an economically conservative position on all matters. Tell private industry to fix things up ………. etc. What immediate level of hardship would that impose on the American public? Economic disaster for sure in the short term, with extreme hardship of unknown duration with questionable ability to wind down the wars in a controlled fashion. I think we now know that we would be in the midst of a worldwide depression had that path been taken. Health care could be out of the reach of half or more of the population with food & shelter in short supply to those without work.

 

Alternatively, one could decide on a giant gamble (after all the world has never seen anything quite like this before) that could pay off by printing money/borrowing massive amounts of capital to keep things more or less as they were in the hope that the ship can be righted before collapse. Knowing that the economic world power is under the control of those other than the US Federal Government and likely ultimately beyond the effective reach of any governmental edicts that could be proposed. Maybe better to play the game a little longer so as to have time to plan a way to regain economic control for the American people instead of the few Oligarchs that control it now. In the meantime buy some time to get out of the wars, install a system whereby healthcare can be delivered at some (possibly minimal) level to all and other safety nets to help spread the hardship more equitably among all citizens should collapse happen. Maybe even time to make a dent in figuring out how to deal with the energy problems and install a working system of public transpiration.

 

A LOT more complicated than the above, but that’s the general idea.

 

Food for thought anyway

 

Jim

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 07:22am

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

I’m trying to decide whether I agree with your assessment of TPTB in the White House.  However, if it was myself in the Oval Orifice, I think I might engage in a plan to “break the news” to the American Public, using the power of that position.  Encourage a viewing of the CC by a certain Dr. Chris Martenson for example.  Hire some smart folks who can present this complex senario to the public in a way as to encourage them to become part of the solution.  But then again how does one get anything really paradigm-threatening to occur when you’ve got to deal with the Military/Industrial/Congressional/Educational Complex?  I’m really hoping that Pres. Obama has got a plan to make some substantive changes and is biding his time for the proper moment- I person can hope can’t they?  But why guys like Geitner, etc, are whispering in the Pres’s ear is a mistery to me….Aloha, Steve.

 

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 07:38am

    #3
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

This seems like a credible idea. 

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 07:50am

    #4
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

I’ve entertained similar thoughts, essentially that the top leadership wants to keep things going for the short term while behind the scenes they get a truly long-term and sustainable future plan in place, and pull a 180 once we’re ready or can’t keep the game going any longer.  But based on the people inside the Obama administration, I see virtually nil possibility of that.  The makeup of his economic team alone convinces me of that.

Now I actually do think they have ‘behind-the-scenes’ plans being readied and put in place for the time if/when TSHTF…. only these plans are mostly about their welfare, not the average American.  At best I think such plans will ignore the welfare of the average citizen; at worst I think they involve cracking some heads should the unwashed masses get too upset.

– Nickbert

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 08:19am

    #5
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

[quote=jpitre]On the other hand, I wonder if ………….  Suppose you were sitting at the desk in the Oval Office facing a collapsing economy, debt beyond imagination, 2 wars with no easy way out, a dysfunctional health insurance system, oil supplies in a precarious state and an unworkable monetary system, just to name a few of the bigger problems — what would you do?[/quote]

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/what-if/9651

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 01:22pm

    #6
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

Sorry, but I don’t buy that for a second.

A far more likely scenario is that TPTB are keeping the current system up and running so that they can extract every last little bit of value out before it fails.  It is like the captain and officers of the Titanic pretending that their is nothing wrong while they steal from that passengers rooms and disapear with all the liferafts.

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 01:35pm

    #7
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

The words “competitive devaluation” come to mind when reading “A Contrarian Possibility.”

We have some of the best criminals on the planet (Geithner, Summers, Blankfein, and Paulson–he’s still in the background, at a minimum), and thus, they might be able to steal a few more trillion worth of resources and wealth from the world by being a print or two ahead of the more naive world leaders, but that just bodes for a total dollar collapse in the end–IMO; worst of all, most of those trillions will go to the Usual “Suspects”; all else get nicely decorated paper for their lives’ efforts.

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 02:28pm

    #8
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

While it may be emotionally gratifying to think of tptb as criminals or fools, it’s good to occasionally try to figure out what the intellectual justification might be for their actions.  An excellent resource for figuring that out is the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bankers’ bank.

http://www.bis.org/

I assume others here are well aware of this site, but I only recently discovered it.  There is a speech on the site (with graphs) by Herve Hanoun, a deputy general manager for the BIS, on the rationale for QE and the risks in unwinding the artificial stimulus that has been pumped into the world’s economies.

http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp091208.pdf?noframes=1

I don’t pretend to understand global economics well enough to really grasp the whole issue, but Mr. Hanoun presents what appears to be a pretty good analysis of the need, timing and international coordination of such unwinding.

I. Unwinding the leverage-led growth model

II. Timing and speed of unwinding 

III. International coordination of unwinding

My take on the speech is that the whole endeavor will require very precise timing and coordination with pretty severe consequences for getting it wrong, amid a very imprecise understanding of when and how it should be done.  Perhaps we should be asking whether Bernanke, other central banks and the primary dealers can get it right, not just dismissing their efforts out of hand.

Doug

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 03:15pm

    #9
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

This is a fascinating thought exercise, but I’m finding it hard to get past 2 “realities” of the situation:

  1. To just get into power (figure-head power) would mean that I would be beholden to those with the real power (read money).
  2. To stay in power (or alive for that matter) would mean that I would have to abandon my own agenda for the agenda of those who put me in power.

So I really don’t see the President, Treasury Secretary, and Chairman of the Fed having any realistic choice in the path that they take. They are all beholden to an agenda not of their own intellect. 

But what would really excite me as an American, is for our leaders to honestly communicate the predicament that our country is in, and for them to sincerely demand that we face the pain that the situation demands and sacrifice our present for our future. IMO this would, after great initial chaos admittedly, galvanize our country with a common cause and objective, and empower the individual to have a purpose larger than their individual agendas. For the first time in my lifetime, hope would be a significant component of my being.

 

  • Sun, Jan 03, 2010 - 03:53pm

    #10
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    Re: A Contrarian possibility

JAG

[quote]But what would really excite me as an American, is for our leaders to honestly communicate the predicament that our country is in, and for them to sincerely demand that we face the pain that the situation demands and sacrifice our present for our future. [/quote]

I’m with you 200% here.

Also, after I wrote the post I thought a bit about what would happen if they are totally successful.  Seems to me they will just be pretending and extending again unless they are capable of or willing to fundamentally change the system.  I don’t see that happening.  So, color me back in the cynic camp again.

Doug

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