3 Charts and 1 Article tell the current BTC story
Chart 1: New purchasers of btc are those who have been selling off after Musk tweeted he might sell the rest of his btc. Put another way: over a million people who got into btc through FOMO these last months quickly liquidated their positions when Elon ‘played’ them with Twitter FUD. (He’s had a good, public chuckle over his joke, and has since doubled down by pumping absolutely worthless Dogecoin, while ordinary people lost precious dollars in btc due to their ignorance and fear and are now poised to lose more through doge. He’s still enjoying his now-extended joke, oblivious to or uncaring of the pain he’s causing. IMO, he’s sociopathic. And too many people in the crypto sphere are showing the same frame of mind they take to Las Vegas – and, often, the stock market.) I don’t like to see this.
Chart 2: The ~35% retracement btc has experienced this last week is normal. If this is your first time through the 4-year halving cycle, take note of the pattern. (Current cycle is on the left.)
Chart 3: Assuming the last 2 cycles can guide us through this one, we’re still months away from this cycle’s high.
(The shaded area is the region between the last 2 halving cycles; current price line is running up the middle. A mean distance projection line has been provided for reference.)
I’m sure you’re not surprised to see the dumb money selling, VT.
But I think it is the “institutions” that you really have to worry about. They will lose their jobs if they take a loss on their bitcoin holdings.
The real problem I see is the topping pattern that bitcoin is displaying. It looks like a stock topping pattern instead of it’s typical commodity-like blowoff top.
It looks like bitcoin broke below the neckline of a head-and-shoulders topping pattern:
The change in pattern is very interesting.
VT….do you invest in gold/silver/miners? They are doing remarkably well over the past week. A great way to diversify a crypto portfolio.
….when BTC falls and the reassurance of framing the drop with the bigger perspective. Thank you.
I see reports coming out today that bitcoin was used to pay the pipeline hackers. Originally the story is that it was an untraceable crypto currency….I though Bitcoin was traceable. Anyways, I sold roughly 35% of my crypto a few weeks back to cover initial investment and short term capital gains on that. Pigs get fed and hogs get slaughtered. There are no guarantees anywhere in my opinion, although it looks like physical silver might be approaching launch. I would certainly buy more Bitcoin in the 20’s, but it’s likely not headed that low I suppose.
Bitcoin is most certainly traceable from and to wallets. Finding out who owns a wallet is more difficult but, once a wallet is targeted, I expect there are all kinds of forensic tools tying URLs to persons/localities that can come into play – as a number of criminals have learned the hard way.
I don’t know if it’s true in this particular case, as I haven’t looked into it, but I do know that there’s an increasing tendency of people at large to use the term “bitcoin” interchangeably with the generic word cryptocurrency – rather like we say Kleenex when what we mean is any facial tissue, or Xerox when we mean generic copier. That tendency likely includes less knowledgeable officials and reporters.
Alot of people saw the billionaires piling into bitcoin and thought they would put a firm foundation under it. I thought “ok here comes the pump and dump”.
HODLing a 50+% LOSS in a weeks time…that just sucks.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, PAXG (tokenized gold) is holding up…so far
You just got to love those anti-bubbles.
Serious question to the HODLers: How do you deal with pullbacks like this?
I need to know if I’m going to be able to HODL crypto.
Lumber is going parabolic, upside down!
YeeHaa! Maybe I’ll be able to actually buy some lumber in a few weeks.
Well, it is confirmed. The best investing advice is simple: do the exact opposite of everything that I do. In fact, I’m considering starting my own website where I tell subscribers what I’m doing and they will know to do the inverse.
Some notable examples:
Started investing in the stock market in 1999. Oops!
Stayed in it. Around 2008 I was finally even with what I put in. Oh no!
I waited again. In 2010 – 2011 I was even again and found PP.com. Sold all investments. I was done! Bad move.
I paid off all debt in the preceding few years. I was free and clear and owned my property completely… except for Vermont property taxes. (The only good financial decision that I have ever made was getting rid of debt.)
I bought physical gold at 1500. I also bought some physical silver. Gold went up to 1900 and then down to 1100. So, what did I do? I held it and held it and held it, while the stock market roared and cash sat in my bank account.
I ignored the markets in 2000, even though I shouldn’t have. At the beginning of 2021 I came down with FOMO. I freaked out. I bought oil stocks. Pretty much nothing has happened.
I bought paper gold, but sold it because I saw it doing nothing. Damn!
After watching Bitcoin for years, I bought some pretty much at the peak. Oh come on!
So what am I doing now????? If you agree to come to my website, then I will give you this one for free.
I am going to hold Bitcoin until it is back to what I paid and then I am out for good. I will go back to losing money to inflation sitting in my bank account. How long will I wait until I sell Bitcoin? Probably, until Coinbase goes bankrupt, then I will say, “Hey, what about my partial Bitcoin?”
By the way, a subscription at my site is negative $30.00 a month or you could sign up for a year subscription to save me money for negative $300.00.
This would be funny if it wasn’t about me.
So I’ll add just one more element to your story. Your concept of “holding your bitcoin until you get back to the purchase price and get out even” is exactly what causes “resistance”. The phenomenon is called “trapped longs.”
Those people who bought the previous high are just waiting for a second top to bail out. And those trapped longs – sometimes – cause a “lower high” because some of the trapped longs just can’t wait and sell early. So it never quite reaches the previous high. The “lower high” is a danger signal. Each rally will end up being lower, as those trapped longs panic out sooner and sooner – resulting in an increasing amount of selling into each rally – and a continuous pattern of lower highs and lower lows.
And that’s what makes a trend.
Of course, its right when all the trapped longs finally panic out in disgust when the actual low occurs. Maximum panic & despondency (probably trackable by online comments – hoovered up by the banksters) is usually the sign that the low is in.
If you feel like you are being emotionally manipulated into losing your money – that’s not your imagination talking. It really happens. And its all done for profit.
Note: I do NOT claim to know when “the low” will happen. I’m just describing a general effect. Emotions of the herd – by and large – drive the market.
It’s a pity that MM is gone. He was a fantastic indicator for bitcoin. The more he posted, the closer to the top we were. It was uncanny – and very human. Once he stopped posting – it meant that the low was coming, perhaps within 3-6 months.
Once I told him this, he stopped being such a good indicator. Am I stupid or what?