​All-cause mortality among jabbed 60-69 year olds, UK data

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  • Wed, Nov 24, 2021 - 09:24pm   (Reply to #10)

    #11
    Dragonspell

    Dragonspell

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    ​All-cause mortality 4x higher among jabbed 60-69 year olds, UK data

QB, correct me if I’m wrong but I think that atom’s revised calculations are ok with equally weighted averages because the numbers are rates per 100,000.

The revised results of a 33% excess mortality with respect to unvaxxed seems to roughly coincide with an analysis that I saw on el gato malo (also using UK data):

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/all-cause-deaths-and-vaccination

 

Let’s try an example:

Group A: 100,000 people, 40 deaths per hundred thousand for a total of 40 deaths.

Group B: 900,000 people, 5 deaths per hundred thousand for a total of 45 deaths.

Simple average = (5 + 45) / 2 = 25 per hundred thousand.

weighted average ((40/100,000)  * 100,000 + (5/100,000) * 900,000) / 1 million. =  (40 + 45) / 1 million = 85 per million = 8.5 per hundred thousand.

Notice how it’s easier just to compute total deaths / total people = (40 + 45) / 1 million) = 8.5 per hundred thousand.

The most blatant example is a very small group with a very high death rate and a very large group with a very small death rate.  The large group should be weighted much higher.  It’s kind of like adding a drop of brine to a barrel of very slightly salty water.  The brine will only make the barrel a tiny bit saltier because the barrel is so big.

  • Thu, Nov 25, 2021 - 12:52am

    #13
    PdeB

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    ​All-cause mortality 4x higher among jabbed 60-69 year olds, UK data

Great discussion. Thanks for your analysis atom and for the replies, QB. I don’t have the statistical chops to make sense of any of this so I really appreciate the higher level data crunching.

Here is a link to a series of blog posts by a statistical data scientist, Jeff Morris, a professor and Director of Biostatistics at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania. He is looking at the same data and coming to the opposite conclusion – that there is no evidence for increased mortality due to the shots. I’d love for someone with expertise in this level of stats to critically review his work and provide a rebuttal.

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/what-do-uk-data-say-about-real-world-impact-of-vaccines-on-all-cause-deaths

Jeff just released a post on all cause mortality as well as a post on mortality after the 2nd shot. The last in the series will be mortality after the 1st shot.

His work looks transparent so it seems like someone who knows their stuff could point out potential flaws in his methods or reasoning. I personally know two people with serious vaccine reactions so it’s hard for me to believe that Jeff’s analysis could be correct.

Thanks all!

PdeB

  • Thu, Nov 25, 2021 - 04:06am   (Reply to #10)

    #14
    atom

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    ​All-cause mortality 4x higher among jabbed 60-69 year olds, UK data

So to calculate these with proper weighted averages… Each point on the chart for “inoculation exposures”, including <21 days since 1 dose, >21 days since 1 dose, and 2 doses…

For each point in time, I’d want to sum the total deaths, divide that by the sum of total population, then multiply by 100,000. Is that right? That would give me proper weighted average mortality rate, per 100,000 people?

 

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