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Whether or not we as a society can agree on the health risks of covid-19 or whether the national lockdowns it has triggered are worth the resulting economic damage, hopefully we can all agree that the global death toll from the pandemic is tragic.

Meanwhile, battle lines are being drawn between those arguing for vigilance against a second infection wave and those skeptical of the severity of the virus and the rationale for curtailing economic activity and personal freedom.

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Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in failing markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet — all of these are classic fourth turning signs of the desperation authorities exert as they lose control.

History shows time and time again that such overreach ends in rejection of the current order, usually via violent revolution.

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Last week’s observed bearish engulfing has so far proved a non-event as the markets continue to reach maximum stupid heights lifted by Jerome Powell’s recent soothing remarks to the nation on 60 Minutes.

The trouble is, so much of what Powell said in that interview just isn’t true.

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It’s getting harder and harder to see the inconsistency/hypocrisy as anything but a highly political show in which science is losing out to big money.

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Back in mid-January, Grant Williams, Mike Maloney, Charles Hugh Smith, Chris Martenson and I sat down for an in-depth discussion on the dangerous distortions to financial markets and the global economy that central bank intervention is causing.

So, if this group of experts was highly concerned about systemic risk pre-coronavirus, what are they thinking now?

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Despite market prices remaining at maximum stupid heights, we’ve seen some notable weakness, volatility and a rare ‘bearish engulfing’ this week.

All of these are advance indicators we would expect to see preceding a fall in prices.

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Covid-19 is “this generation’s polio” declares Nicolas Hart, the British physician who recently treated UK PM Boris Johnson.

How do we find a way to work, shop and socially interact without unacceptable risk to an invisible and highly-infectious virus that can kill us or leave survivors with long-lasting damage to our lungs and other organs?

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