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    Ebola!

    How worried should you be?
    by Chris Martenson

    Wednesday, October 15, 2014, 1:35 PM

The current Ebola outbreak, unlike others throughout history, is lasting a very long time; with cases now being reported on a variety of continents well outside of its equatorial African origin.

I’m not especially worried about Ebola striking me or my loved ones, for reasons I’ll explain in a moment. But I’m growing increasingly concerned about the government response to the outbreak.

So let’s spend some time understanding the nature of Ebola, specifically, and viral contagion, more generally. At the very least, Ebola can serve as an instructive reminder about how our society’s responses to a viral outbreak could prove to be at least as disruptive and damaging as the virus itself.

Ebola

While very often cited as being 90% fatal once contracted, Ebola is rarely that lethal. In fact, it was only that lethal in a single isolated outbreak. A 50% to 70% mortality rate is more common. As of Oct 10 2014, the latest outbreak had afflicted 8,376 and killed 4,024 — a mortality rate of 48%.

This places the Ebola strain responsible for the latest outbreak on the lower end of the Ebola lethality scale. Don’t misunderstand me: this is still a very deadly virus, to be sure. But it’s not a guaranteed death sentence, either.

Viruses come in a wide variety of types and shapes. But the general structure they all share is that they have some form of nuclear material, either DNA itself or RNA, housed inside of a protein capsule. Think of a peanut M&M, where the peanut is the genetic payload and the outer coatings serve both a protective purpose (while the virus is seeking a new host) and as the means of docking with a host’s cell.

That’s really all a virus is. A few proteins and some genetic material. No membranes, no sexual merging of genetic material, and no ability to replicate themselves all on their own. There are debates still ongoing today as to whether a virus should even be considered a living thing.

The life cycle of a virus is very simple. A virus particle will dock with a target host cell (most viruses are highly specific for the precise sorts of cells they will and won’t bind to), insert its genetic payload which hijacks the host’s replicative machinery, replicate the genetic payload wildly which codes for both new genetic material and protein capsule subunits, and then reassemble lots of intact virus particles which then escape the host cell to go and find other cells to infect.

Within a mammalian host, once a virus attack is recognized, an antibody response is mounted and the fight is on. As the virus particles escape the host cell (which is usually damaged or killed as a consequence of having been hijacked) it is vulnerable to being identified by a host antibody, itself a highly-specialized protein that will ‘dock’ with a virus particle more or less permanently (they bind together very tightly) and thereby incapacitate the virus’ ability to dock to a new host cell.

With lethal viruses, something goes wrong with this process. Either the virus replicates too quickly for the host to counter effectively, or the virus tricks the immune response into either too little or too much activity — both conditions which can end poorly for the host.

For example, the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918 preferentially killed those between the ages of 20 and 40. This was unusual because it’s exactly opposite the flu mortality patterns we normally expect, where the very young and the very old are the most susceptible.

The best prevailing explanation for this is that it was the very health and vigor of the patients that did them in. The Spanish flu (and other avian flu strains) cause the host body to unleash a ‘cytokine storm‘ which is a very unhealthy, and sometimes lethal, positive feedback loop between immune cells and a class of attractor signaling molecules called cytokines. As more cytokines are released, say into the lung tissue, immune cells are attracted and can then release more cytokines, which attracts more immune cells, and so on. The place to which they are attracted becomes damaged by this overly-aggressive response of the immune cells and for the Spanish flu victims, this happened in the lungs, critically impairing respiration. Hence, the ‘healthier’ a host was, the more damage the Spanish flu virus caused.

In the case of Ebola, the virus preferentially targets the cells that line the inner walls of blood vessels (a.k.a. endothelial cells) as well as white blood cells, a fact which helps to spread the virus throughout the body fairly rapidly, as white blood cells actively migrate system-wide.

Through a variety of mechanisms, the Ebola virus causes the endothelial cells to detach from the blood vessels and die, which compromises blood vessel integrity. This targeting of the blood vessels is why the Ebola virus is classified as a hemorrhagic fever. The patient’s blood vessels literally break down. That leads to the many visible symptoms of an Ebola victim, not the least of which is various burst blood vessels all throughout the body.

(Source)

Currently, it’s thought that once exposed, an Ebola victim will incubate the virus for a period of up to 21 days before symptoms express. It’s only once the victim is symptomatic that they themselves can transmit the virus and infect others.

This characteristic of Ebola, more than any other, is why I don’t fear it overly much as a pandemic risk. A far more worrisome virus would be one that’s infective during asymptomatic stages of its host cycle, as is the case with HIV.

Early symptoms of Ebola include the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat. Unfortunately, that pretty much describes any reasonably intense flu, which complicates screening procedures and causes unnecessary worry among those who merely have the flu but worry about the possibility of Ebola.

Nonetheless, authorities have no choice but to take every traveling passenger with these very ordinary flu symptoms as a possible Ebola case. It’s a safe bet we’ll hear plenty in the coming days and weeks about Hazmat-suited response teams escorting sickly passengers off of planes.

A tip : if you have a fever, don’t travel. You’ll worry a lot of people unnecessarily. And you may end up in quarantine, really throwing your travel plans off the rails.

The Short-Term Risk

While gruesome and heartbreaking, the actual number of deaths by Ebola as well as the total number of people infected is very, very low compared to other hazards out there.

Are you more worried about Ebola than driving to work? If so, you have those risks entirely inverted.

(Source)

In the above chart, there are 27 years worth of data contained in each data point. That means that if the chart reads 2,700 for a given day, then an average of 100 people died on US roads on that day each year out of 27.

For the US, the above chart translates into ~33,000 vehicle deaths per year. Even in Africa where some 4,000 people have died from Ebola so far in 2014, America’s vehicle fatalities dwarf that current statistic.

Other communicable diseases such as HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and diarrheal disease cause some 9 million deaths worldwide each year.

This is why I’m personally not that worried about Ebola striking me or my family here in the eastern US at this time. Nor would I be overly worried in Dallas, where the first two US-soil cases of Ebola command national attention. The odds of getting infected at this point are very low at the individual level.

The Longer-Term Risk

However, I do think that the reaction to Ebola, which could include ex- and inter-US travel bans and other economically and socially disruptive practices could be another matter altogether at this moment in time. While there is a small, but non-zero, chance that this Ebola strain could morph into something more virulent, there is a very good chance of a more Draconian government response developing.

In Part 2: Prudent Precautions To Take Now, we dive into not only what damage to our civil liberties and livelihood these heavy-handed and poorly executed government responses are likely to be, but we also address the actions that individuals can take today on important questions like:

  • Who is at risk of infection in the current ebola outbreak?
  • What’s the likelihood the current strain will morph into a more virulent form?
  • What are the best steps to take today to reduce your vulnerability to a pandemic?

What Ebola reminds us of is that when a true pandemic arrives it will travel much faster than those in the past (thanks to air travel being an order of magnitude faster than dawning recognition) and that our complex, highly leveraged, just-in-time global economy is utterly unprepared for even a minor glitch in the flow of goods let alone the virtual lockdown that a true pandemic would require.

A small amount of preparing can make you much less vulnerable should (when?) that comes to pass.

Click here to access Part 2 of this report (free executive summary; enrollment required for full access)

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68 Comments

  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 3:26pm

    #1

    wmarsden

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    Posts: 10

    Mortality rate

    There's some reason to believe that actual mortality rate is closer to 70%.  It's lower right now because the spread is mushrooming and many people are sick who have no yet died – but will.  

     

    http://news.sciencemag.org/africa/2014/09/how-deadly-ebola-statistical-challenges-may-be-inflating-survival-rate

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 3:44pm

    #2
    AndyR

    AndyR

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    Auto accidents

    We are not seeing an exponential increase in auto accidents, so how can that be a valid comparison?  The risks are known and understood, and not doubling every 3 weeks. 

    The plan such as it is, seems to be to let this pandemic burn out, which occurs as the sloppy replication of the virus causes it to lose its lethality in favor of transmission.  Spanish flu had a mortality rate of 2.5% and managed to span the globe before it burnt out.

    A bit of fear, would be helpful in slowing the spread of ebola. 

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 4:23pm

    #3
    timwoodsman67

    timwoodsman67

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    not convincing

    You sound very disingenuous when comparing ebola against car accidents. Car accidents do not grow exponentially! I worry more that the government will downplay the risks and tell us what we want to hear. Indeed, they are already doing so. You heard the CDC director stating there was a breach of protocol before even evaluating whether the protocols are sufficient or consistent. My impression is that you are using this to grind a familiar axe.

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 5:04pm

    #4

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4501

    Let's use numbers, shall we?

    I regularly like to keep things in proportion.  Ebola is still not yet anywhere on my personal worry list in terms of the disease potentially striking me.

    Even if it is growing exponentially, the base is so small that it will take many doublings from here before any concern registers in my brain.

    That's because I am versed in statistics and do not spend any time ingesting whatever fear du jour the media is peddling.

    So far, what are your chances of dying in America from Ebola contracted here?  Exactly zero.

    What are your chances of contracting Ebola at all?  So far one in 160,000,000.

    What are your chances of contracting Ebola if you were not on the front lines treating a sick Ebola patient?  Exactly zero.

    With all the things to actually worry about, why worry about something with almost zero chance of hitting you?  that's not an 'apologist's' stance, it is just by the numbers.

    Here are some more numbers.

    All unintentional injury deaths Number of deaths: 126,438  

    Unintentional fall deaths Number of deaths: 27,483 

    Motor vehicle traffic deaths Number of deaths: 33,783

    Unintentional poisoning deaths Number of deaths: 36,280

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 5:43pm

    #5
    kmaher

    kmaher

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    I also have no concern about

    I also have no concern about catching Ebola here today.  I'm much less sanguine about Ebola than you overall.  My concern is that Ebola is not being brought under control yet and the longer this continues the greater the risk of Ebola establishing itself elsewhere say India, Egypt, Brazil or any other number of highly populated places with weaker medical systems than ours.  That potential greatly raises the risk that we see significant numbers of infections here which would seem to have the potential to overwhelm our medical system and would certainly have significant economic impacts.

    Until recently, the Fed was pumping $85 billion dollars a month into the financial system.  I think it would be worth it to provide whatever resources are needed to those countries that are currently trying to get this under control.  It would seem a true bargain to guarantee a good annual salary to any Liberian Ebola survivor for example who was willing to be trained to take care of the sick and dead to get this under control.  Allowing this to rage on and spread to other areas risks inviting the black swans I'd say.  The risks aren't where the situation stands today it's where it could go in 6 months.

    Another thought, I know a woman who grew up in Africa and swears that her immune system is strong enough for her to travel anywhere and drink the water eat the food and never worry about being sick.  How would American immune systems fare having never been exposed to the stressors of the average African, better or worse?  Also, I imaging in Liberia the people are accustomed to being more self sufficient and wonder if our efficient market and transportation systems would prepare us to cope better or worse than them?

    Kevin

     

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 6:18pm

    #6

    Aaron M

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 22 2008

    Posts: 790

    Beware the CDC

    The early responses are exactly why I'm more concerned about fear of Ebola than I am of Ebola, itself. 

    The CDC's role in disseminating information, as Chris has said, is dubious – to put things conservatively.
    Nearly all their statements have been inflamed by the media, and now people everywhere are expecting millions of cases by this time next year, if not billions. 

    The modeling that's been done is literally taking place in a "worst case" vacuum. We can't expect the rate of doubling in Africa to adequately represent the doubling time anywhere else. If Ebola were revealed to have a much higher rate of transmission than previously thought, that would be concerning, and, not particularly surprising. 

    At present, however, we're left with the official channels assessment, the MSM's spin machine on 'full-tilt boogie' and our wild imaginations. It's worth remembering that the Bubonic Plague was less deadly than the fear it created.

    Cheers,
    Aaron

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 7:33pm

    #7

    rmurfster

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    Posts: 15

    Putting it in perspective...

    If 8,000 cases seems statistically insignificant, how's 10,000 per WEEK? http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/world/africa/ebola-epidemic-who-west-africa.html

     

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 7:55pm

    #8
    Luke Moffat

    Luke Moffat

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    %'s

    Number of Ebola deaths this year = 4,447

    Number of people on planet Earth = 7,000,000,000 (roughly)

    4,447 / 7,000,000,000 x 100 = 0.0000635% mortality rate of Earth dwelling humans

    Panic over

    My more immediate threats are muggers, car users and alcohol poisoning

    Now back to our regularly scheduled program

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 8:10pm

    #9

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 2225

    %'s

    "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

    – Prof. Al Bartlett

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 8:11pm

    Reply to #8
    dryam2000

    dryam2000

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 06 2009

    Posts: 241

    Luke Moffat wrote:Number of

    [quote=Luke Moffat]
    Number of Ebola deaths this year = 4,447
    Number of people on planet Earth = 7,000,000,000 (roughly)
    4,447 / 7,000,000,000 x 100 = 0.0000635% mortality rate of Earth dwelling humans
    Panic over
    My more immediate threats are muggers, car users and alcohol poisoning
    Now back to our regularly scheduled program
    [/quote]
    You would refer you to the late Dr. Albert Bartlett's excellent youtube videos explaining exponential growth in layman's terms, or Dr. Martenson's excellent Crash Course video explaining exponential growth.

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 8:40pm

    Reply to #8

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    %'s

    [quote=dryam2000]You would refer you to the late Dr. Albert Bartlett's excellent youtube videos explaining exponential growth in layman's terms, or Dr. Martenson's excellent Crash Course video explaining exponential growth.
    [/quote]
    Both.

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 8:56pm

    #10
    Luke Moffat

    Luke Moffat

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    Posts: 365

    Haven't we been here before?

    Swine Flu, Bird Flu, SARS

    To Paraphrase;

    Swine Flu

    Based only on lab-confirmed cases, the WHO official figures report that just under 18,500 people died in the 2009 flupandemic.

    A new study by over 60 researchers from 26 countries suggests that the number of people who died in the 2009 global H1N1 "swine flu" outbreak is much higher than official figures show.

    Writing in PLOS Medicine, they estimate the total respiratory deaths worldwide to be up to 203,000, some 10 times higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) official total, which is based on lab-confirmed cases.

    Bird Flu

    Since 2003, 650 human infections with highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses have been reported to the World  Health Orgranization (WHO) by 15 countries. About 60% of these people died from their illness.

    In 2011, 62 human H5N1 cases and 34 deaths were reported from five countries—Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Egypt, and Indonesia.  Six countries— Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam—have widespread and ongoing infections in their poultry. Poultry outbreaks have occurred in other countries recently as well.

     

    SARS

    The SARS outbreak of 2003

    According to the World Health Organization (WHO), a total of 8,098 people worldwide became sick with SARS during the 2003 outbreak. Of these, 774 died. In the United States, only eight people had laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV infection. All of these people had traveled to other parts of the world with SARS. SARS did not spread more widely in the community in the United States. See an update onSARS cases in the United States and worldwide as of December 2003.

     

    NOTICE

    Since 2004, there have not been any known cases of SARS reported anywhere in the world. The content in this Web site was developed for the 2003 SARS epidemic. But, some guidelines are still being used. Any new SARS updates will be posted on this Web site.

    Paraphrase Ends.

    "Fears are nothing more than a state of mind" – Napolean Hill

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 9:04pm

    #11
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    Posts: 109

    Who is panicking?

    I really don't see it in my little circle. My doctors seem like they are a bit scared because they are front line but I have yet to witness panic.  Even my friends who work in ER's haven't been panicking.  MSM is getting their ratings though.

    I am sorry to be nitpicky but it is unfair to accuse people of panicking when they are just trying to find out what is going on…..

    Very helpful writeup on the nuts and bolts of the virus.  Thank you as always Dr. M.

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 9:15pm

    Reply to #11
    Luke Moffat

    Luke Moffat

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 25 2014

    Posts: 365

    VeganD wrote:I am sorry to

    [quote=VeganD]
    I am sorry to be nitpicky but it is unfair to accuse people of panicking when they are just trying to find out what is going on…..
    [/quote]
     
    Inference on my part. Sorry, my apologies

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  • Wed, Oct 15, 2014 - 10:34pm

    #12
    Dwig

    Dwig

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    Posts: 110

    Ebola: the view from the front lines

    The perspective I tend to trust is from those who are on the front lines of dealing with infectious disease, in particular nurses who deal every day with the good and bad practices in hospitals that deal with infectious diseases.  Mary Odum, at the Prosperous Way Down blog, is a professor of nursing with practical experience.  She has written some trenchant posts on the way the outbreak is being handled; here's her latest.  She's far less sanguine than Chris or most of the commenters here.  One of her main points is the disconnect between the doctors and nurses who are in the system, and the MBAs who run the hospitals and make the official pronouncements.

    As to statistics, it seems to me that the most important one at this point is the rate of growth (deaths), which was still exponential last I saw, with a doubling time around 20 days (recent update from a commenter on Odum's site: "The case doubling time for Ebola appears to be close to its incubation time, about 21 days. With today's case load, we have about 27 doublings to reach over 7,000,000,000. That's about eighteen months.").

    Certainly panic isn't called for, but neither is complacency.  We've been seeing lately how poorly our national-level systems deal with systemic issues (Iraq, anyone? Ferguson? Deepwater Horizon? Katrina? Peak oil?) — it looks like public health may be another example.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 12:23am

    #13
    larrythelogger

    larrythelogger

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    Ebola: from Dallas

    My wife is an ER nurse in the med center catty corner to Texas Health Presby Dallas (Ebola central).  Although her ER patient load has increased fivefold due to Presby being basically empty, she's not plussed about the virus at all.  However, she is concerned about having the correct protocol, training, buddy systems, etc if it does go nuts. Since Presby Dallas is pretty much a very large yet for all intents and purposes, closed facility, Med City and even Parkland (about ten miles away) are refusing ambulance patients; walk-ins only (Parkland is accepting ambulance delivered burns since they're a major burn hospital but that's all).  Texas Health Presby faced a mass exodus of staff when they drastically cut back hours.  So, because of the fear of losing most of their employees, they have been paying full component to their entire staff even though there are NO patients and it's a pretty huge facility.  How long they'll be able to keep that up is anyone's guess.  My guess is, not for much longer.  They make money by fixing broken people stuff, not by paying a few thousand people to watch their Facebook page all day.  So far, Dallas hasn't lit its hair on fire quite yet.  I asked my wife last weekend how many infected people will cause statewide severe sphincter muscle contraction.  She said, 30 and it's all over but the crying.  That's for Texas.  If you're in a state like Connecticut, where somebody who knows somebody who called somebody in Liberia who might have been infected, they might establish martial law. What's weird is that Ivory Coast, after closing its borders next to Sierra Leone and Liberia have had zero cases.  I wonder why that is.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 1:03am

    Reply to #12

    debu

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    Mary Odum/Properous Way Down Blog

    Couldn’t agree more with Dwig that Mary Odum’s writing on the Ebola situation is very sobering stuff.
    Essential reading, surely.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 3:04am

    #14
    kmaher

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    Another way of looking at the numbers.

    What are the chances that Ebola is not contained and becomes a true global pandemic?  What would the expectation be for the number of deaths if this were to run amok?

    If there is a .0001 chance of this escaping to become a true global pandemic, you'd have an expectation of 7,000,000,000 x .0001=700,000 x .5(mortality rate)=350,000 deaths.  Maybe you think the odds are it would only impact half the population, so you'd have an expectation of 175,000 deaths.  Or maybe our odds of it being contained are much better than one in a million.  You can use your own judgment as to what is likely and I'm not sure how best to quantify that.

    However you want to look at it, the consequence of not fully containing this is so large it should be addressed much more aggressively by the world community.  Even if the chance of it happening is low.

    Kevin

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 3:42am

    #15

    Michael_Rudmin

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    worse than exponential growth

    If you do the numbers, it looks like the doubling period for African Ebola is 23 days, not 20 as the media states. Do it for the US diagnoses, it’s 11+/- days.
    Wait, you may say… the small sample size invalidates the estimate.

    On the contrary, it brings out a worse point: that the exponential growth is not valid for early growth. Why? Because you aren’t just getting exponential caseload growth. You are getting exponential growth of the number of paths of transmission.

    First, it was ebola patients coming in by jet: first one, then two moreg then two more again… Then, it was transmission by protocol-less hospital. But that transmission was actually three paths: skin-skin contact with patients, poor wast management with vomit-soaked rags piled up to the ceiling, and a problem with the cafeteria that they decline to describe.

    Next it was transmission-by-jet, with a feverish patient knowingly taking a jet trip to and from Fort Worth.

    As each path causes groups to be overwhelmed, transmissions within that path approach exponential growth, and then tail off.

    But that’s not the worst. I’m going to posit that the number of available paths of transmission is a function of the size of the economy.

    Liberia’s GDP is small; they have a few paths of transmission; so they quickly moved from an exponentially growing exponent constant, to a fixed exponential constant.

    But the US GDP is large. So the number of ways people interact is huge. Therefore, our 11 days could become 8 days, then 5.3, then 4 days to double the case load.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 7:19am

    #16

    sand_puppy

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    All the talk is Ebola, tonight

    The doctors and nurses in our Emergency Department don't have a real high opinion of the CDC.  They point out that it is a political post that sets social policy.  They are the shepherds, and we are the sheep.  Big Pharm, Big Medicine and all kinds of secret political dealings influence their "science."

    1.  Not even one health care worker in our ED tonight thought that the paper gowns recommended by the CDC (and purchased by the hospital) would stop a splash of virus ladened diarrhea from penetrating to the skin of the HCW.  And since Ebola patients produce about 2.5 gallons of diarrhea a day, this is a big issue.

    A couple of the nurses are Military Reserve Officers and one is in the chemical and biological weapons response unit at the USAMRIID.  So we had some insider viewpoints tonight.   The recommendation was "Watch what they do not what they say."  Here is picture of a CDC BSL-3:  battery powered HEPA ventilator (air is drawn from the room, filtered and delivered to the head/face piece), head cover, face shield, impermeable suit, work done behind a splash shield, chemical shower on exiting.  [This BSL-3 set up is much more rigorous than the recommendations they have provided to community hospital HCWs.]

    And here is BSL-4.  Room air is NOT breathed but is pumped in from the outside filling the suit.  A 7 minute chemical decontamination shower while wearing the suit is required, then passage through multiple air pressure locks, then when stripped naked, another decontamination shower, then another air lock, then redress in street clothes.  Not one item of personal clothing enters or leaves.  This is how Ebola is treated by the CDC. (Thanks Claire)

    2.   Even if our paper gown were to actually be impermeable, no one thinks that the act of doffing (removing) the PPE can be done consistently and perfectly everytime by every nurse.  Errors will occur.  People will be infected.  Several specific steps seemed likely to cause contamination.  Absolutely not one doctor or nurse thought it was reasonable to assume that each and every HCW was sterile after doffing.  And no one was willing to be touched by a HCW who had just left the Ebola room.

    http://www.cdc.gov/HAI/pdfs/ppe/ppeposter148.pdf

    3.   Absolutely no one, no one single doctor or nurse, would return home to spouse or children after caring for an Ebola patient.  Everyone planned on checking into a motel and "avoiding humanity" for the duration of the epidemic.  Yet it is the official position of the CDC that once you have removed your PPE you pose no infection risk at all and you may return to normal patient care activities and go home to your family.  Absolutely no-one believes that that is true.  [And tonight the CDC back tracks and says that the "Dallas number 2 infected nurse" should not have traveled after Ebola care….].

     

     

     

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 10:34am

    #17

    LesPhelps

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 465

    Numbers aside, I thought the article was instructive

    I have two daughters within 90 miles of Dallas.  I'm not even concerned for them, at this point.

    What I don't understand is this.  A man, knowingly, directly exposed to the virus, without any form of protection chooses to fly half way around the world and no one is offended.  With a virus like Ebola, that sort of behavior should be criminal, carrying the heaviest penalty on the books, yet, not a peep out of anyone, that I've seen.

     

     

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 10:37am

    #18

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 836

    worse than exponential growth

    so then, Sand Puppy, protocols need to be developed that incorporate those things into the response. The protocols need to be instilled now, and practiced now and TESTED now.
    I would advise mobile concrete pads the size of parking spaces, raised as high as necessary, and with a steel drain pipe coming out its middle, and coil rod around the edges. using pallets and greenhouse technology, you build disposable tent units, and install space heaters. Each tent becomes a triage unit, or a place for a HCW to sleep… and if occupied by an ebola patient, gets incinerated. incineration can be accomplished by dropping a modified con-x over top of it, and burning everything with gas fire, superheating the exhaust and sending it through a catalytic converter (auto exhaust pipe).

    The HCWs need to be faced with ebola symptom complaints, and need to be tested to see where their response fails proper protocol.

    The ambulance crews need to get some Uhaul-style box trucks, and outfit them with plastic sheeting, Air Force 3 style, and have them ready to transport probable patients — and then be thoroughly decontaminated. That system too needs to be tested.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 12:45pm

    #19

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 448

    Ebolas Lessons

    Dr Martenson's article was well written and no doubt reassuring to many.

    I keep thinking that epidemics and pandemics happen for a (or many) reasons.  Mother Nature is teaching us, if only we are aware and willing to learn from the situations.  Something is out of balance, we are being sloppy, we are not paying attention.  Fear and death should be our wake up call. Fear, in my opinion, isn't such a bad thing, it prompts us to act, to pay attention, to make changes so we can survive.

    I agree most of us are not currently in harms way but there may be a tipping point for this virus to be truly out of control and we won't know when that happens.  Plus the main stream media talks about "confirmed" cases.  So some official has to "confirm" a case before it's actually counted.  The question that begs to be asked is, are there two sets of numbers, "confirmed" cases and "actual" cases? Kind of like real inflation or jobs numbers or unemployment and the "official" numbers?

    We learned that the virus originated in bats and that it can affect, humans, pigs, and monkeys.  The affected nurses dog is being quarantined so the virus could affect dogs as well.  The point here is that we might want to be concerned and aware that this virus can move to additional hosts.  This potential is a wild card and not statistically quantifiable, but a possibility.  

    Human nature favors self preservation so if someone has a choice of getting sick and being treated in a clinic in a 3rd world country or traveling to the US to be treated in a state if the art, high tech hospital than I would think planes would be full of people opting to leave infected countries in order to be here in case they needed our healthcare. For this reason I think we will see many more cases in the future.

    We are upping are preps and watching this situation like a hawk. 

    My 2 cents, AK Granny

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 1:09pm

    Reply to #19

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4501

    Living in fear vs. being motivated by fear

    [quote=AkGrannyWGrit]Dr Martenson's article was well written and no doubt reassuring to many.
    I keep thinking that epidemics and pandemics happen for a (or many) reasons.  Mother Nature is teaching us, if only we are aware and willing to learn from the situations.  Something is out of balance, we are being sloppy, we are not paying attention.  Fear and death should be our wake up call. Fear, in my opinion, isn't such a bad thing, it prompts us to act, to pay attention, to make changes so we can survive.
    [/quote]
    My sincere hope is the Ebola is a wake-up call for many, and that they use it to deepen their preparations, and as a means for observing how their government (the CDC) actually functions, or fails to, in the face of a very real threat, no matter how small it happens to currently be.
    The much larger threat in my mind is the eventual arrival of a real pandemic threat that spreads rapidly and easily and causes enough mortality that it massively overwhelms the healthcare system (which actually isn't that hard to do…just add up the hospital beds in your city or town, and then divide that by the total population of your area and see what happens).
    Somewhat jarringly, when this article was posted to ZeroHedge in the comments beneath I detected the distinct flavor of disappointment from some folks that my stance was not appropriately doomish enough, not enough fear based, and not pointing to the imminent demise of society as we know it.
    That gave me some pause and I had to sleep on it because I have to carefully consider my own role in fueling the desires of those who long for change so much that it has become a belief system.  One that you either support or refute.  If supported, your views and data are met with glee and happiness.  If refuted, then it's anger and derision.
    In both cases it is the emotional tone that reveals what is actually at work, and that is a belief system invested in certain outcome.
    While I carry my own beliefs, so I'm neither elevating myself nor lowering others here, I work hard to assure that these beliefs do not prevent me from taking action.
    I honestly care not whether someone shares my own limited concern about Ebola or has a highly elevated state of fear around the matter, but I do care, a lot, about whether that person (in either state) is taking prudent actions to become more resilient.
    My assessment is that a majority of people at ZH who dumped on the article because it was not doomerish enough were also not doing anything new about becoming more resilient.  If they were in a dispassionate state around the materials, the responses would have been different and along the lines of, I disagree with the author's assessment and here's fact X and fact Y to support my case.  Accordingly, because of the view I hold, I have done this, bought that, and am increasing my own level of readiness along these lines, and I think others should consider the same…
    All of that is perfectly reasonable to me.
    But for anyone who found themselves angry at my views on the matter but has also not taken any concrete steps towards greater resilience and preparation I would offer up the idea that there's something there to be looked at because living in fear without action is the very definition of being a victim.
    We are all responsible for ourselves, our reactions, and what we choose to allow to enter our minds and control our emotional state.  More regularly I choose to live calmly, and without fear, which means I filter out an enormous amount of popular culture and news.  
    Said more directly, I choose not to be a victim.
    Finally, I reserve the right to change my views on Ebola, or anything, as more data becomes available, and I hope you all know that.  🙂

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 1:27pm

    #20

    nickbert

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 260

    Hospital managers/administrators dropping the ball

    My wife is an RN at a Denver hospital, and she says the hospital hasn’t done ANYTHING AT ALL in preparation or training for the possibility of encountering a suspected Ebola case.  Not so much as a 5-minute briefing regarding the possibility of needing to isolate or treat a suspected Ebola infection.  I’m less concerned about a widespread, devastating pandemic and more concerned about the hospital’s lack of timely preparedness and foresight exposing her and other nurses & doctors & patients (and their families) to possible infection.  I understand the risks of encountering such an infected individual are low (so far anyway) but the seriousness of the impact should it happen surely merits some response.  I don't expect them to turn the hospital upside-down and inside-out, but even a couple hours of briefing the staff on clues to look for and proper procedures to follow would at least be a step towards something.  It is criminal to not offer reasonable protection and training to the employees that through the course of their job are susceptible to substantially increased risk.  My wife says she frequently has to deal with patients who cough and sneeze on her with no thought to cover their mouths or turn their heads or anything.  And that's just the people who are mildly-to-moderately sick…. how bad will it be when said patients are seriously or deathly sick?

    I've said it before, but all I can say is I’m glad this isn’t something equivalent to the Spanish Flu around 100 years ago.  If it was I’d be begging her to quit.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 1:41pm

    #21

    Snydeman

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2013

    Posts: 480

    An important reminder, Chris, thanks!

    "That gave me some pause and I had to sleep on it because I have to carefully consider my own role in fueling the desires of those who long for change so much that it has become a belief system.  One that you either support or refute.  If supported, your views and data are met with glee and happiness.  If refuted, then it's anger and derision.

    In both cases it is the emotional tone that reveals what is actually at work, and that is a belief system invested in certain outcome."

     

    It is a very, very important point you make there, and I had not considered how my own burning hatred of the "system" that we live in would merge with my fear/knowledge that Big Change is Upon Us and create a paradigm that I myself am having trouble seeing beyond. I definitely find myself gravitating to anything that speaks doom and gloom now, almost with a morbid glee that finally the corrupt edifice of civilization will crumble, and the true freedom of anarchy will prevail once again (a rosy view of what collapse would bring, no doubt). I will need to ponder this, greatly, because it is hard to act rationally and logically in preparing for the future if I am wearing blinders of any kind. In any case, thanks for the reminder.

     

    My wife and I continue to try to maintain some semblance of a balance in the struggle to prepare and the struggle remain optimistic and sane.

     

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 3:04pm

    Reply to #19

    Jbarney

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 25 2010

    Posts: 198

    I read your article yesterday

    [/quote]
    Somewhat jarringly, when this article was posted to ZeroHedge in the comments beneath I detected the distinct flavor of disappointment from some folks that my stance was not appropriately doomish enough, not enough fear based, and not pointing to the imminent demise of society as we know it.
    That gave me some pause and I had to sleep on it because I have to carefully consider my own role in fueling the desires of those who long for change so much that it has become a belief system.  One that you either support or refute.  If supported, your views and data are met with glee and happiness.  If refuted, then it's anger and derision.
    [/quote]
    I read your article yesterday Chris, and I wasn't disappointed with your assessment, although it was not what I was expecting.  I have been reading your work for years, and while I have not read the responses over at ZH, I find it odd that some people would react with anger to your calm, "take a breath" approach.
    With respect to the threat level of ebola, your perception about people needing to look at the numbers, be aware, and go on with preps AND their regular lives came across loud and clear.  I wouldn't take too much from those who seemingly get too caught up in the moment.
    That said, I think what is happening in Dallas should be a major cause for concern.   From Duncan being able to get into the U.S., to his being turned away from the hospital, the nurses not having the proper equipment, to American health care workers getting ill….and now the story about the 2nd nurse actually flying while having an elevated temperature….it all speaks to how ill prepared our institutions are to rapidly changing events. 
    The percentages are small.  These events, right now, are only hitting a small number of people.  However, I can't help but think about how much worse this could get.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 3:30pm

    #22

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Silver Lining(?)

    Some Fear Ebola Outbreak Could Make Nation Turn to Science

    NEW YORK (The Borowitz Report)—There is a deep-seated fear among some Americans that an Ebola outbreak could make the country turn to science.

    In interviews conducted across the nation, leading anti-science activists expressed their concern that the American people, wracked with anxiety over the possible spread of the virus, might desperately look to science to save the day.

    “It’s a very human reaction,” said Harland Dorrinson, a prominent anti-science activist from Springfield, Missouri. “If you put them under enough stress, perfectly rational people will panic and start believing in science.”

    Additionally, he worries about a “slippery slope” situation, “in which a belief in science leads to a belief in math, which in turn fosters a dangerous dependence on facts.”

    At the end of the day, though, Dorrinson hopes that such a doomsday scenario will not come to pass. “Time and time again through history, Americans have been exposed to science and refused to accept it,” he said. “I pray that this time will be no different.”

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 4:07pm

    #23

    Wendy S. Delmater

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 13 2009

    Posts: 1418

    Highway patrol analogy

    I loved the nice, scientific tone of your article above, Chris, and wanted to thank you for a cool head and sticking to the facts, especially since those facts may change and you've stated that you're open to changing any stances based on facts.

    Facts are the difference between rational debate and irrational demagoguery.

    Those of us who have done the best we can to get ready for the coming shift remind me of motorists reacting to a highway patrolman. If you're speeding, or have no auto insurance, or have a violation like a badly cracked windshield or missing headlight you are going to respond differently than if you are doing the speed limit in an insured, physically-sound car. It does not matter if you are driving an expensive car or a cheap one; you will not be caught out if you are doing the right thing.

    When we're doing the right thing, although various crises pop up we probably have the skills and tools to play whack-a-mole with these crises if they intersect our lives. And the level of preparedness does not have to be perfect, it just has to be "the best you can do." Then you can be calm, and take a rational stance.

    In our case our daily routine has not altered much. We pay attention to the news, and watch and listen. The political/societal/economic impact of this ebola outbreak may very well be damaging than the disease itself. Does anyone want to take bets that the way our government is "handling" this crisis is not impacting faith in the dollar, for example?

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 4:37pm

    #24
    Dwig

    Dwig

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 05 2009

    Posts: 110

    Suggestion: interview Mary Odum

    Ebola aside, Chris, I'd like to see you do an interview with Mary Odum.  She's the daughter, and "intellectual heir" to Howard Odum, who spent a lifetime doing ground-breaking work on an energy-based approach to ecology (which for him included all human activities).  The title of her blog, A Prosperous Way Down, is also the title of her father's last book, in which he summarizes his theories, and applies them to create recommendations for "policies appropriate to descent".  You can find much of his work in articles on the blog.  (For one thing, given your background, I think you'd enjoy learning about Odum's concepts of "emergy basis" (not a misspelling) and transformity, as well as his "pulsing paradigm" that puts our current situation into a larger context.

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 6:42pm

    #25

    Gaborzol

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Mar 24 2008

    Posts: 20

    Experience in Pathology AND Economy

    One of the things I appreciate about this site is the wide variety of people with experience and actual knowledge, rather than just information. This article from Chris is a prime example: clear on both the background on the infectuousness and danger of Ebola, as well as what it may mean inserted into our current political and economic environment. Much more interesting that to figure out about all these apocaliptic stories and possibilities from the media or other discussion sites. But maybe it is like watching a documentary instead of a thriller, and that turns some people off, I imagine. For me the world is complex and entertaining enough already, I don't need the extra stimulation, and Peak Prosperity has a tendency to explain things on my level (the good old laymen's terms), without hyping it up to make it interesting and entertaining. Thank you for that! 

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 7:15pm

    #26

    Aaron M

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 22 2008

    Posts: 790

    Disaster Bias

    It's interesting how we are used to seeing people with the Normalcy Bias who figure since something different hasn't happened yet, it probably won't. But this disaster bias seems to be working its way into our society more and more. 

    Snydeman candidly summed it up – people who are just sick of our current "business as usual" policy towards political scandal, a valueless social system, a economic policy that promises gratification at the cost of satisfaction and legions of deeply rooted ponzi ticks out to screw you out of your money (I'm looking at you, local traffic courts) in the most absurd ways possible, are ready to just watch it burn. 

    I would love to see our 'leadership' take notice of this and say "holy smokes, we should probably fix this rtfn". But, like Friden, we will probably see dialog more like "Well, it's YOUR fault! You didn't wear enough PPE!" And then a couple days later say "It's your fault! You wore TOO MUCH PPE."

    It's the modern language of "Let them eat cake", and as with the Roman Empire, I have no doubt that Ebola is straw on an morbidly overloaded, weary camel with shaking knees and mange.

    From that perspective, I thought this article illustrated the point nicely.
    Cheers,
    Aaron

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 8:53pm

    #27

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    IRR activation

    Obama calls up reserves to deal with Ebola in Africa

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 9:08pm

    #28

    gallantfarms

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 18 2009

    Posts: 22

    Ebola and Vitamin C

    I also am not too concerned about Ebola in the US at this point, although it looks like it may be pretty devastating in Africa before it's over, and I think we will very likely see increasing "scare" cases here.  I would not want to be a Health Care worker never knowing if that "flu" patient I'm treating might have ebola.  It is reassuring that the close contacts of Duncan in Texas do not seem to have caught it, so it seems not super contagious until the later stages with very close contact.  

    However, in the interest of "preps"  I thought I would share a link to an article that explains how to use Vitamin C to fight viruses.  Taking normal amounts of C will not do much, there is a specific dosing protocol that needs to be understood if you want it to work.   A virus replicates exponentially, like a fire, so it is extremely important to begin dosing at the very first signs of illness.  The great thing about vitamin c is that you don't need to know what it is you are sick with, it will help with a cold, flu or ebola, but only if you get the dosing right.

    Here is the link:  http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v10n13.shtml

    Quote:  "The mechanism of action of high dose vitamin C is known and understood. In normal healthy tissues it acts as an antioxidant. In other tissues, it generates hydrogen peroxide, the chemical that platinum blondes use to bleach their hair. This happens in sick and inflamed tissues, for example in a malignant tumour. The process is typically a form of Fenton reaction, generating free radicals. The oxidation and free radicals arising from the hydrogen peroxide kill bacteria and inactivate viruses. In other words, vitamin C acts as a targeted bleach and antiseptic.

    Vitamin C is unique, because it has low toxicity and can be taken safely in massive amounts. Other antioxidants and supplements will not have a similar effect." 

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 11:34pm

    #29
    agitating prop

    agitating prop

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 28 2009

    Posts: 282

    Seriously

    …worry more about anti-biotic resistant strains of bacteria, like C. difficile.  How about necrotizing fasciitis? The only explosive diahrea I worry about is irresponsible journalism scaring the sh** out of everybody. 

    Ebola is only a very small potential hazard to those on the front lines.   Sure it could become a problem.  Lots of things could become problems. Many viruses come and go without ever becoming a significant problem because their  numbers remain small enough that they never gain enough traction to cause a serious epidemic. 

    Ebola is a disease of filthy conditions.  Feel for the people who live on a continent so beleaguered and beset with so many problems it can't deal with something as simple as basic hygiene.  That is the real tragedy.  Africa, as a continent, is the disease.  

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 12:13am

    #30
    mikkel

    mikkel

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 16 2014

    Posts: 3

    Destruction of trust in the system

    I apologize if this is addressed in the subscription only part, but the most likely catastrophic effect from ebola will be further rejection of the system.

    Simply read the comments on this post at Naked Capitalism to get a gist of what I mean. The most noteworthy is

    While it was sinking, could anyone have been said to be any trustworthy leaders on the Titanic? Regardless of status and position, those who were not only out for themselves were delusional and clueless. Add in a generous helping of incompetence and you have the Titanic in a nutshell. This analogy effectively describes not just the Dallas Presbyterian Hospital, but also America as a whole. Today, the best bet for self/family/group-preservation is to view everything with extreme cynicism and trust no one you don’t personally know. The alternative is empty life boats while people drown in freezing water.

    Almost everyone has lost faith completely in the financial system, politics, journalists and statesmen; many have lost it in the police and educational system; and Fukushima/Deep Horizon contributed to putting scientists and engineers on the list, while all the abuse scandals are severely damaging religious institutions. About the only thing that has general support left is the medical system (and military), which is still considered good even though it is outrageously expensive.

    Except of course it's not. The people within those systems know that they suffer from all the problems that the rest of society is facing. They are plagued by incompetent leadership focused on image and profits at the expense of service. They mistreat their core workers physically and emotionally, while lavishing rewards on hyper-educated but widely varying (in both skill and decency) technical workers. They arguably exist primarily to extract resources rather than benefit the public good.

    As the Mary Odum post says:

    Spanish nurses are defecting from the fight in Madrid, citing poor pay and inadequate PPE…hospitals these days are run by MBAs in suits, who know more about profitability than healthcare. What would stop me from quitting, and saving my ammo to care for my family, if I knew that a deadly pandemic was coming, and my hospital would not listen? Those journalists who promote headlines blaming the spread of EVD on nurses need to reconsider the slant they are promoting. And the MBAs running hospitals had better give nurses a seat at the table to manage these issues, now, before this pandemic heats up and we go into crisis mode

    Similarily, from a Naked Capitalism comment "when a man with suspected Ebola arrived at Lewisham Hospital (South London, UK) recently, staff panicked and ran off, leaving the man untreated and unquarantined. One of the reasons why trained medical staff behaved this way, it was claimed, was that the business managers who run the UK National Health Service allocate protective gear in line with the perceived risk; that is, if someone turns up in A&E with a 10% chance of Ebola, staff only get low grade (ie “10%”) protective equipment."

    Even a small pandemic has the potential to be the straw that breaks the camel's back, with widespread strikes and revolts. Of course, incompetent authoritarianism will only fuel that fire.

    While most likely nothing extreme will happen, this will further cement distrust in not only authority, but society itself. Once people learn they can't even trust their doctors, who knows what will happen.

    From this perspective, I find it foolish not to worry about ebola, regardless of its medical potential. But instead of that worry leading to passivity or further entrenchment, it should inspire peak-oriented people to capitalize and rebuild local trust by utilizing our worldviews.

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 1:44am

    #31
    vitger

    vitger

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 10 2008

    Posts: 8

    More bad news

    The CIDRAP says Ebola should be treated as airborne/aerosol driven disease:

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/09/commentary-health-workers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola

     

    “We believe there is scientific and epidemiologic evidence that Ebola virus has the potential to be transmitted via infectious aerosol particles both near and at a distance from infected patients, which means that healthcare workers should be wearing respirators, not facemasks.1

     

    I do not think we can yet grasp the potential enormity and consequences of this problem.

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 3:12am

    #32

    Wendy S. Delmater

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 13 2009

    Posts: 1418

    Int'l Ebola news roundup for Oct. 16, 2014

    Jamaica bans travellers from Ebola-affected areas

    Nurse Who Treated French Ebola Patient 'in Hospital With Fever' (NDTV)

    Europe Evaluates Ebola Measures as Possibility of New Cases Arises in France and Spain (NYT)

    Rand Paul Contradicts Experts, Says Ebola Is 'Incredibly' Contagious (huffPo)

    CDC: Nurse may have had symptoms earlier (CNN)

    Ebola nightmare scenario unfolds: Infected nurse takes commercial flight with 132 passengers; plane makes 5 more flights (Intelihub)

    Amber Vinson’s Flight: An Ebola Nurse and the C.D.C. (The New Yorker) "The C.D.C. can’t act as though this is a matter of a young woman’s recalcitrance if the true problem is the organization’s own incompetence. "

    America's 4 Ebola Hospitals Can Only Hold 9 Patients (Mashable)

    Changes to Ebola Protection Worn by U.S. Hospital Workers (NYT)

    Obama Says He’s Open to Ebola Czar, Rejects Travel Ban (BBG)

    Alarm after vomiting passenger dies on flight from Nigeria to JFK (NY Post)

    Lawmakers demand answers about handling of Ebola cases (ABC)

    Ebola vs. Civil Liberties: In abnormal circumstances, we must recalibrate the balance in the interest of safety. (Nat Rev)

    Ship that left Jacksonville has Ebola scare in Baltimore (WJXT)

    Obama Authorizes National Guard, Reserves for Ebola Fight (NBC)

    ‘OH HELL NO!’ Outrage meets Obama plan to send Natl. Guard to Liberia to fight Ebola (BizPacReview)

    Islamic Burial Rituals Blamed For Spread Of Ebola (IBD)

     

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  • Thu, Oct 16, 2014 - 11:34pm

    #33
    Mark Moran

    Mark Moran

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 21 2010

    Posts: 9

    Do we really understand Ebola yet?

    < ![endif]-->

    I came across and interesting Ebola article in the Journal of Infectious Disease that I think warrants sharing and discussing.

     Here is the link:

               http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142.full

    The paper strikes me as rigorous, the authors are from reputable academic institutions, and the journal has a solid technical record.

     From the article, I quote:

    "The isolation of EBOV from semen 40 days after the onset of illness underscores the risk of sexual transmission of the filoviruses during convalescence. Zaire EBOV has been detected in the semen of convalescent patients by virus isolation (82 days) and RT-PCR (91 days) after disease onset"

    So, it looks like survivors can potentially transmit the virus through intercourse for as much as 3 months after they are otherwise asymptomatic.

    Respectfully

    http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/196/Supplement_2/S142.full

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 9:51am

    Reply to #4

    Michael_Rudmin

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 25 2014

    Posts: 836

    worse than exponential growth

    Chris, your whole website is based on ‘what’s more scary than exponential growth?’ And ebola is IN exponential growth, with only twenty doublings until worldwide infection totality.
    But I tell you what’s more scary than exponential growth: when you look at a log-linear graph, and see the hockey stick. n=a^BT become n=a^(b^cT).

    Now go over to the wikipedia article on the African ebola outbreak, and go down to the ‘time progression’ part of the article. Look at the graph of total ebola infections. you’ll see that each country has two curves: the second curve is the straight line on the log-linear graph. That’s scary. But the first curve is before the country mounts a serious response to the various transmission paths: that’s the j-hook on our log-linear graph.

    That’s terrifying.

    Now all the news is about our government downplaying the risk and SPREADING the disease.

    if you start at our current 11-day doubling, then by 5 months we will have 131 000 cases. if you cut that to 5 3/4 days, then that 131000 US cases occurs by Christmas.

    Nigeria’s non-response curve had 3-day doublings. Nominally, they’ve beaten the disease. If they’re not lying.

    http://nypost.com/2014/10/16/alarm-after-vomiting-passenger-dies-on-flight-from-nigeria-to-jfk/

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 2:35pm

    #34

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4501

    And the new Ebola czar is...a *lawyer* and political operative

    From the you have TF be kidding me files:

     *OBAMA SAID TO APPOINT RON KLAIN AS EBOLA CZAR, CNN TWEETS +

    Forget medical experience, what the USA needs to conbat the worst Ebola pandemic ever is "an American lawyer and political operative best known for serving as Chief of Staff to two Vice Presidents – Al Gore (1995–1999) and Joseph Biden (2009–2011)."

    The Washington DC crowd is so infected with itself, that it sees everything thorough the political lens.

    Ebola pandemic starting?  Quick! Get our best political operative on the job!  That should fix it!!

    He should consult right away with the three well-connected DC lawyers currently serving on the Federal reserve FOMC panel, and then check in with the DC lawyers/operatives/resume padders to be found stuffed into various embassies all over the globe.

    Then with the 128 lawyers in the House and the 45 in the Senate.

    After that, I should think he will have a good handle on exactly what to do next….

     

     

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 2:50pm

    #35

    Jim H

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1798

    A failure of spin...

    Ebola problem being viewed by our political elites as a failure of spin.. too many folks actually becoming fearful, which is bad for the economy (stupid).  I am sure fear is readily apparent in real time international air bookings data.  How about a cruise?  You never know who you are being trapped in a floating bubble with;

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-17/ebola-handling-healthcare-worker-currently-caribbean-cruise-ship

    What do you think the real time cruise cancelation data looks like?  I am sure the real time data is telling a chilling story of recession to come.      

    Another answer is just to up the volume on the positive spin megaphone;

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-17/umich-consumer-confidence-surges-7-year-high-thanks-ebola-scare-sliding-market

    Yeah, right. 

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 3:09pm

    #36

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 448

    Ebola Czar

    Interesting choice for a title. Czar meaning a person of authority, autocrat, and tyrant.  Suggests control rather than prevention and cure.

    My father used to say, "yeah when pigs fly" well I am watching for them because it's a crazy world out there and some shannagan's are hard to believe.

    AK GrannyWGrit

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 3:21pm

    #37

    Aaron M

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 22 2008

    Posts: 790

    RE: Ebola Czar

    AK GrannyWGrit,

    Regarding the Ebola Czar, I'm thrilled! We haven't had a new Czar in months, if not years. When Obama got elected, we had Czars everywhere, and now it takes a fake crisis to get a new one. 

    I feel safer already, knowing there's a legal authority overseeing the process of getting around the red tape… that the legal authorities that have destroyed hospital administration put into place to begin with. (Please read this as a heavy dose of sarcasm – which I generally don't like)

    If lawyers were the damn problem, what're the odds that more lawyers are the solution? 

    This is a dizzyingly stupid response, using equally stupid language. I wish all of D.C. would just go get massages and sit this one out so the people who know what's going on could step up on their own. Natural leadership would go a lot farther in these instances than elected leadership.

    Sigh…

    Aaron

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 3:55pm

    Reply to #34

    Barnbuilder

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 07 2014

    Posts: 23

    New Czar

    About ten years ago as I was becoming aware of the peak oil story I sent Jim Kunstler an e-mail asking his advice on how we could get our government to get off it's dead behind and get in front of the pending crisis. His response then was that to rely on the government was folly and that any real change and prudent preparation would have to come from individuals and communities of aware and educated members of our society.  This is even more apparent now. The spin and total concentration on political effect versus what is accurate and effective is mind boggling. For Obama to appoint a political operative attorney starkly underscores that fact.       Thank goodness for the work you and Adam have done here.  As I continually strengthen my family's resilience and resourcefulness it is more than helpful to come here and find like minded folks.  I agree with your assessment of the personal risk of this virus being very small.  However if any institution can snafu a manageable situation into an outright crisis our government at the federal, state and local levels is eminently qualified to do so. I guess the bottom line for all of us "peons" is to control what you can in your daily life, build resilience on a daily basis, and try to build community with like minded people.

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 4:16pm

    #38

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Oh well...

    …at least they are getting us used to have a "Czar" running things. USSR redux? SMH.

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 4:36pm

    #39

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Morebola

    Possible Ebola Case at the Pentagon

    This whole thing stinks to high heaven.

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 4:41pm

    #40

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Possible Ebola Case in a Steel Frame Building

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 4:52pm

    Reply to #40

    Bankers Slave

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 26 2012

    Posts: 513

    Ebola transmitted from the twin towers

    weakened the steel framed structure and it caused a global pandemic via column 79. Said the well informed  NIST spokesman. "We did not find any evidence of the use of explosives because we did not look."Now go away and leave us alone!

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 5:05pm

    #41

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 1837

    Once more: The Pentagon

    This signals that "we are under attack"  (Scary music)

    "a tipster with knowledge of the emergency response" is about as good as "a white house insider whose name cannot be released."    Pictures of ambulances, hazmat suits.  Planting images and ideas in the news and psyche.

    This is the way the propaganda arm of TPTB work.  We have a ring side seat.

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 5:44pm

    Reply to #4

    Chris Martenson

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 4501

    About those exponentials...

    [quote=Michael_Rudmin](…) if you start at our current 11-day doubling, then by 5 months we will have 131 000 cases. if you cut that to 5 3/4 days, then that 131000 US cases occurs by Christmas. Nigeria's non-response curve had 3-day doublings. Nominally, they've beaten the disease. (…) [/quote]
    Hey, you know me…I'm about as concerned by exponential behavior as the anybody, but not (yet) in the case of Ebola.
    I'm pretty confident that this incident will burn out and blow over, just like those before, mainly because of the low rate of host-to-host transmission and the low rate of mutation.
    Note that there have been zero cases reported among patient zero's friends and contacts.  Nobody from the plane rides.  Nobody else at all.
    Note also  that Nigeria seems to have beaten the disease, as you note.
    But mainly I am confident that we cannot simply extrapolate this virus' rates of infection out through many more doublings because people will change their behavior, like they did in Nigeria, well before things got to "5 months, 131,000 cases" stage.
    I certainly would.  
    I have travel on my schedule right now and I have almost no worries about going on those trips.  I'll be a bit more vigilant watching for ill passengers, but I'm usually very careful in high density situations to contain my incidental face touching during flu season anyways so this will be a slight add to my existing awareness patterns.
    But if suddenly Ebola was striking all over the place, I would not even travel.
    And I would not be alone.  People are people, and they usually don't want to die.
    Remember SARS?  
    Here's how people are in the face of a deadly contagious illness:

    Mall nearly empty after false SARS rumor spreads
    Apr 24, 2003
    KENT — No one at the Great Wall Shopping Mall has died from the illness known as SARS. No one at the Asian-themed shopping mall, located where Kent and Renton meet, is suffering from SARS.
    There isn't a single "probable" case of SARS in King County, according to the Public Health — Seattle King County.
    Now have some dim sum, please, because business at this indoor mall has dropped as much as 50 percent, business owners estimate, since rumors began circulating that the place has been infested with the severe respiratory illness that's infected more than 4,400 people worldwide, about half in China.
    According to one rumor, an employee at the mall died from the disease. According to another, two employees at the Ranch 99 grocery store have been diagnosed with it. And, rumor has it, Christine Lee — who along with husband, Omar Lee, owns the shopping mall and part of the Imperial Gardens Seafood restaurant there — was in the hospital for a week with SARS.
    She was vacationing in Florida with her children. "This is totally ridiculous," said Henry Ku, who owns two restaurants — Taiwan Restaurant and Shanghai Restaurant — at opposite ends of the mall.
    He waved his arm at the 20-or-so tables at Taiwan, checking his watch. It read 12:11 p.m. "Usually it's a full house at lunch. Today, only one table."

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 6:03pm

    Reply to #30

    Time2help

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 08 2011

    Posts: 2225

    Destruction of trust in the system

    [quote=mikkel]I apologize if this is addressed in the subscription only part, but the most likely effect from ebola will be further rejection of the system.
    [/quote]

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 7:01pm

    #42

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 3107

    ebola - fear, transmission, what's next?

    The level of fear generated by the media here in the US regarding Ebola is just silly.

    Again, at Emory they did actual tests on surfaces in the highly infectious patient's room.  No surfaces in the room tested positive for Ebola RNA.  That means, airplane seat cushions, lav doorknobs, toilet seats, they are all very low probability transmission mechanisms.

    Unless you are actively cleaning up the fluids from an infected patient, odds would seem to indicate you won't get Ebola.  That's what the numbers say.  We can imagine all sorts of Government Plots to cover up information – but why go out of our way to buy into the fear thing?  It really resonated with me when I read Chris's comments about some people seeming to want to believe everything was going to collapse and are disappointed when it doesn't – or when Chris isn't peddling fear to the extent people seem to want him to.  I see that exact same thing all the time in people's responses to my posts.

    We have enough stuff going on that is bad, we don't need to invent more of it.

    Somehow we get trapped in one of two states – "all is well" hopium, or "the world will collapse into a Mad Max situation, you just watch."

    At the same time, I don't think Ebola will burn itself out.  Once infections get into the hundreds of thousands in West Africa – and unless we can manage to stop the doubling rate, that's what will happen in a few months from now – people in the area will start fleeing, and the refugees will overload the neighboring country medical systems, starting off the exponential growth in those new areas.

    If we imagine people will just sit around in country, wait to get infected, then die just so the outbreak will conveniently burn itself out – does this sound likely?  People move in anticipation of events. If you know you are going to be punched, will you just stand there and take it, or will you try to move out of the way first – anticipating the blow?

    My concern is that with a large enough infected population in West Africa, enough "embers" of Ebola will be blown around the world via refugees – in areas with decent healthcare systems and enthusiastic governments, it will be handled and contained, while in areas with poor healthcare systems, weak governments, and relatively ignorant populations it will take root, grow exponentially, and decimate the society.

    In the past, Ebola outbreaks "burned out" only because a) they happened in remote areas, and b) because MSF would parachute in and engage in quarantine plus contact tracing.  Once Ebola is spread to cities around the world, the number of instances would be too large to contain through that technique – not enough MSF, too many hot spots, as well as sovereign governments that might actively want to hide Ebola infections to avoid international isolation.  And so even if people's behavior changed, they still need to eat, grow food, interact, etc to survive, especially in poorer areas.  And in countries with poor healthcare systems, the only healthcare available is home healthcare – which will invariably transmit the disease to the caregivers.

    So after watching the pattern of infections here in the US, I am relatively sanguine about Ebola in America.  Although it all looks like a pathetic Keystone Cops response right now, in our usual way we'll eventually sort it out (perhaps – learn from MSF and see how they do things?  Genius.) and we will do the right thing once we move the bureaucrats aside and focus on the practical issues.  It took Pearl Harbor to get the USN to stop thinking about Battleships and start focusing on Aircraft Carriers.  Same thing here with Ebola.

    At the end of the day, it is not the US that makes me nervous.  Its the rest of the world…once we have 100k-500k possible refugee/carriers in West Africa, I worry especially about the poor countries around the world with airports, weak governments, and bad healthcare systems…

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 8:09pm

    #43

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1435

    Terrorist or military angle?

    Hmmm. Did somebody purposely get infected with Ebola in Liberia and then equally purposely try to get close to the Pentagon to infect key military personnel?  Maybe not, but it would be an excellent asymmetrical warfare strike, especially if it successfully got an exponentially rising basket of cases started at the Pentagon. Boko Haram? ISIS? CIA (false flag)? Or did someone at the CDC tell the patient it would be ok to go on a bus tour of the Pentagon after coming here from Liberia with a fever and vomiting?

    "Welcome to the Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor."

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 8:16pm

    Reply to #43

    Bankers Slave

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 26 2012

    Posts: 513

    Its now officially an attack!

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 8:19pm

    #44

    Bankers Slave

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 26 2012

    Posts: 513

    The Simpsons predict doom well ahead of time once again!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lm3i2m-v4xY

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 8:23pm

    #45

    Bankers Slave

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 26 2012

    Posts: 513

    AAAAArrrrrrrggggg get the hell out of there!

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 8:37pm

    #46

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1435

    MSM now "allowing" criticism of POTUS

    Interesting development, IMHO.  MSM media outlets, after worshiping Obama since '04 and protecting him from all criticism, are now starting to let a few harsh criticisms leak out.  It seems even they are pretty sure Obama's going to receive a harsh rebuke on election day Nov 4th, though no one's expecting an actual "solution" since it will only be Republicans getting elected.

    Here's Peggy Noonan in the Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/articles/who-do-they-think-we-are-1413502475

    Here's one from CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/id/102097506

    If they're discarding Obama, they could save us a lot of time and money and just tell us now who's going to be President in 2016.  (At one time I actually feared he would find an excuse to cancel the '16 election by executive order, and no one would complain). I don't really want to know, mind you, but I ask only in the interest of efficiency.  

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 9:01pm

    #47

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1435

    Ebola vaccine

    http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/10/17/why-the-nih-doesnt-have-an-ebola-vaccine/

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  • Fri, Oct 17, 2014 - 9:48pm

    #48
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 109

    Vaccine

    So the NIH couldn't do it. Hopefully the military researchers have been working on it. Seriously. Canada's public health service is putting their vaccine into trials.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ebola-vaccine-to-be-sent-to-who-on-monday-for-clinical-trials-1.2803731

    One of the major pharmaceutical firms announced they cannot  just yet…. I thought profit motive might get them to move mountains.  

    https://twitter.com/newsbanks/status/522572575814062080

    "GSK is one of several companies trying to fast-track a vaccine to prevent the spread of Ebola in West Africa.But Dr Ripley Ballou, head of GSK's Ebola vaccine research, said full data on its safety and efficacy would not be ready until late 2015."

     

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  • Sat, Oct 18, 2014 - 1:16am

    #49
    pat the rat

    pat the rat

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 01 2011

    Posts: 108

    ebola /sloppy math

    7 billion people on earth,lets say that 60% could get the infection.6*7=4.2 billion people ,60% die from the infection 4*6=2.5 billion people .7 billion-2.5=4.5 billion people.this is my best guess! sloppy math

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  • Sat, Oct 18, 2014 - 9:33am

    #50

    thc0655

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 1435

    Clash in Philly over Ebola

    http://www.philly.com/philly/health/20141017_City__care_workers_clash_over_readiness_to_confront_Ebola.html

    "Every hospital has the equipment they need," said Mark Ross, regional manager of the Hospital and Health System Association of Pennsylvania. "Ebola is just one of a host of serious infectious diseases hospitals must be prepared to identify and safely treat each and every day."

    But union officials representing nurses, other hospital personnel, and paramedics cautioned that this kind of overconfidence has already threatened lives.

     

     

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  • Sat, Oct 18, 2014 - 7:51pm

    #51

    Bankers Slave

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 26 2012

    Posts: 513

    I wonder what happened to this treatment from 1999?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/411030.stm

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  • Sun, Oct 19, 2014 - 12:39pm

    #52
    mammamia

    mammamia

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Nov 09 2011

    Posts: 24

    Ebola as an exponential world problem

    Stop thinking at Ebola as a US problem. Ebola is a world problem. And if it grows, as it is growing exponentially, it will touch most of the population, killing half. I learned from this site to evaluate exponential curves. My understanding is that Ebola overall is growing with a doubling rate of something between 35 and 45 days. Here I read strange, much lower numbers. I only can think those are due to smaller samples. If a person gets infected and infects several others, this will cause the doubling rate to spike. But you only should calculate the doubling rate for situations big enough to be statistically big enough. As you see the curves it tend to flatten out, this I think is because the number of people grows and the local conditions become less and less important.
    So with a doubling rate of 35 to 45 days, it has a growth rate between 1.6% and 2% PER DAY. This is Scary! If you are not scared you have not understood exponential growth. Sure, at some point the situation will become rough, flight bans will be in place. Probably it will be too late. Once a Major city has been hit by Ebola in a continent I don't see how the continent can be saved without massive program of vaccination which we do not have.

    So, Chris, no, I think fear, and alarm is the correct response.

    What this website could do would be to gather the latest data on how many cases every day. Calculate every day the exponential trend line. And on the base of that we can try to guess when the travel ban will be in place. When a train ban will be in place. And so on. You don't want to be stuck on the wrong side of the fence at that point.

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  • Sun, Oct 19, 2014 - 2:04pm

    Reply to #52

    RNcarl

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 13 2008

    Posts: 179

    Theoretical rates vs. Real world

    [quote=mammamia]Stop thinking at Ebola as a US problem. Ebola is a world problem. And if it grows, as it is growing exponentially, it will touch most of the population, killing half. I learned from this site to evaluate exponential curves. My understanding is that Ebola overall is growing with a doubling rate of something between 35 and 45 days. Here I read strange, much lower numbers. I only can think those are due to smaller samples. If a person gets infected and infects several others, this will cause the doubling rate to spike. But you only should calculate the doubling rate for situations big enough to be statistically big enough. As you see the curves it tend to flatten out, this I think is because the number of people grows and the local conditions become less and less important.
    So with a doubling rate of 35 to 45 days, it has a growth rate between 1.6% and 2% PER DAY. This is Scary! If you are not scared you have not understood exponential growth. Sure, at some point the situation will become rough, flight bans will be in place. Probably it will be too late. Once a Major city has been hit by Ebola in a continent I don't see how the continent can be saved without massive program of vaccination which we do not have.

    So, Chris, no, I think fear, and alarm is the correct response.

    What this website could do would be to gather the latest data on how many cases every day. Calculate every day the exponential trend line. And on the base of that we can try to guess when the travel ban will be in place. When a train ban will be in place. And so on. You don't want to be stuck on the wrong side of the fence at that point.
    [/quote]
    To understand exponential function is NOT to understand it's application in the real world. Please bear with me as I retrace the exponential example.
    First, lets take the baseball stadium example of exponential function. Remember that "theoretical" drop of water doubles? The stretch here is to understand that while one can comprehend a "magic eye dropper" full of water, dropping a doubling of water drops into your hand, the example breaks down once you reach gallons and gallons of water that need to be brought in to create the "next doubling." Meaning, with the example of Fenway park, the first stretch of imagination is that the park is water tight. Not impossible to get it that way but highly unlikely. But, for the sake of my example, lets say one could make this happen. OK now, fast forward to where the stadium is exactly half full. Lets even ignore where that amount of water came from. At the next doubling, the stadium would be full, and there you are, handcuffed to the top row seat… where you would drown if you couldn't free yourself. Isn't that the example? The question is, how much time would it take or rather how much time would you have to free yourself before the stadium was full?  Mathematically, you would have 49 minutes as the example is given.
    Mathematically is it correct? Absolutely! In reality though, to produce even the amount of water needed to fill the park half full, would take a long time to deliver that water.
    The same holds true for Ebola. As Chris has pointed out, behaviors would change that would skew the "doubling rate." This is where math bumps up into the real world. Don't get me wrong, will the devastation be awful? Of course. If Ebola was going to be the pandemic that everyone fears, there have been enough outbreaks already in the past to have caused world destruction. There are many, many factors as to why it didn't happen and won't happen now.
    The problem now is the MSM and the polarization of the U.S.political landscape. I haven't decided if Ebola is a "Wag the Dog" event yet or not. To be sure, once the mid-term elections have taken place, Ebola will drift back into obscurity.
    FWIW – C.

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  • Wed, Oct 22, 2014 - 3:58pm

    #53

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 448

    War on Ebola

    http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/26974-fighting-the-last-war-will-the-war-on-terror-be-the-template-for-the-ebola-crisis

    This is an article worth pondering.  After 9-11 the "War on Terror" changed our lives for the worse, to keep us safe of course.  What will the "War on Ebola" run by our government do to change our lives, to keep us safe of course.  Now that we have an Ebola Czar whose most comfortable and experienced in government and politics will information on the disease and its progression be shared with us or be suppressed for our safety and our peace of mind? Is no news good news? Not to worry, I am sure there is a new reality show to watch this fall.

    AK Grannwgrit

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  • Tue, Oct 28, 2014 - 11:06pm

    #54
    Stephen Fischer

    Stephen Fischer

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Feb 20 2011

    Posts: 4

    Herbal treatment

    BTW, I know there is no evidence that any herbal medication can be used effectively to treat Ebola, but it might be good to remember that Echinacea is known to act as an immune system modulator. This MAY be helpful in reducing the damage caused by the "cytokine storm." 

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  • Thu, Apr 20, 2017 - 7:57am

    #55
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Oct 31 2017

    Posts: 1613

    Lami

    Since March 2014, West Africa has experienced the largest outbreak of Ebola in history, with multiple countries affected.

    In response to the outbreak, CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center to coordinate technical assistance and control activities with other U.S. government agencies, the World Health Organization, and other domestic and international partners. CDC also deployed teams of public health experts to West Africa. Widespread transmission of Ebola in West Africa has been controlled, although additional cases may continue to occur sporadically. However, because of ongoing surveillance and strengthened response capacities, the affected countries now have the experience and tools to rapidly identify any additional cases and to limit transmission.I'm common rail come from sensor

     

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