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    Don’t Believe The Hype!

    New optimistic coronavirus research seriously flawed
    by Adam Taggart

    Monday, April 20, 2020, 8:14 PM

Have you read the recent studies claiming that many more people have or have recovered from the coronavirus than are counted officially?

So have we.

It’s great news, right? It suggests that the fatality rate is MUCH lower than currently calculated and we’re making progress towards national herd immunity, right?

Not so fast, warns Chris.

He pulls up the actual research studies behind the headlines and show how shaky both its methodology and conclusions are. They’re so bad that other scientists within the research community are calling for an apology.

As much as we wish the hype were true, now is a critical time to ensure we’re dealing with accurate data. Bad data = bad decisions. Bad decisions = bad outcomes.

Meanwhile, Chris also notes the absolute carnage going on in the oil markets, with near-term oil contracts now trading at negative prices. This is historic and will have MASSIVE implications for the economy and the financial markets going forward.

You’ll be hearing more from us on that soon. So stay tuned.

And in the meanwhile, keep working on starting/expanding your garden.

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90 Comments

  • Mon, Apr 20, 2020 - 8:54pm

    #1
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    I am making a list of culpable people ( with intent to harm )

    This out-right angers me.  These people are dumb as  a doornail.   The  flu never stacked up refrigerator trucks at the hospitals in new york.. nor did they ever have mass trough graves from the flu in new york..  These people are arrogant and I call for all of them to go to jail and hand over every dime they have to all the victims when this is said and done.  In fact , I am not sure execution would not be in order under the US constitution.

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  • Mon, Apr 20, 2020 - 10:10pm

    #2
    Solarado

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    Herd immunity seems a long way off

    We seem to have flattened the curve, leveling off to around 30 thousand new cases in the US each day.  Hospitals in hot spots are stressed, but less so in other places, so maybe this would be considered "manageable".  But 30K/day is only ~1 million/month, and for herd immunity we need around 80% of the population, say 265 million, to have been exposed and developed immunity, if that immunity is even enduring.  At this rate, that's 265 months, or 20+ years away. This is a ludicrously crude scaling calculation, but it shows that without an effective medical solution, our timescale is months and years, not days and weeks.  Yikes.

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  • Mon, Apr 20, 2020 - 10:22pm

    #3

    dtrammel

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    Preparing for a Second Wave

    How many of you are preparing for a second wave of infections and deaths in a week or so?

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  • Mon, Apr 20, 2020 - 11:39pm

    #4

    gyrogearloose

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    NZ data raises questions

    Hi from down under.

    Today's updated data. (NZ population 5 million)

     

    5 new cases today, all from known sources.

    From yesterdays release it was stated that there had only been 5 cases of community transmission since the first of April.

    From Chris here a few days ago re rates of undiagnosed  cases indicated that for every

    case there would be 6 undiagnosed/asymptomatic cases.

    If this data is correct, it would imply that very few of them are infectious or we would have seen more community cases ( ones where they could not find the source )

    Over the last few days they have been doing random testing at supermarkets.

    About 1400 tested, 0 positive.  ( no antibody testing available here yet? )

    Yesterday the full on lock down was extended 1 week (to total of 5).

    So on Monday we will go from level 4 to 3. Schools, bars restaurants etc closed. Fast food drive through only. retail stores no customers allowed in stores, social distancing etc still on.  (Schools can take under 14 yr olds of both parents are working and cannot have family look after the under 14   )

    Two weeks later it will be reviewed pending number of cases

     

    Going forward all arrivals to spend 2 weeks under government controlled isolation

     

     

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  • Mon, Apr 20, 2020 - 11:50pm

    #5

    gyrogearloose

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    Flatten the curve on the way to herd immunity

    A while after someone here did the math on how long you need to flatten the curve for, our politicians were all suddenly talking 'flatten the curve' (I also saw a reference to the honey badger!)

    For friends and family I ran the numbers for them based on 6 un-diagnosed for every confirmed case, using Italy as an example, and came up with over 4 years.

    Said the numbers for NZ  come out the same.

    They all immediately realized the idea had a big problem.......

     

    Regards Hamish

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 12:19am

    #6
    CBellu

    CBellu

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    Switzerland will start to open back up

    Weighing in from here in Switzerland.

     

    So the federal government wants to open back up in Switzerland. To remind everyone, Switzerland went with a restrictive response to the pandemic:

    - no groups with more than 5 people, and only when there were 2 meters between people

    - all non-essential shops closed (so only pharmacies, grocery stores, gas stations, clinics, etc)

    - restaurants for take-out allowed

     

    The stores that were open took social distancing seriously. Tape was applied to the floors in front of the checkout counters -- two meters apart. Entrance into the shops was regulated. Alcohol disinfectant was available and required (on hands) before entrance was allowed. An employee was wiping down shopping carts with alcohol between customers.

     

    So last Friday it was announced that starting on April 26th other non-essential shops can open, but social distancing will not be relaxed. Day-cares will also reopen.

    On May 11th schools will reopen.

    On June 9th universities will reopen, and potentially bars  & restaurants.

     

    However, if they notice an increase in cases between any of these, the go back to lockdown mode. So the idea is, a gradual relaxation of the lockdown, with a lot of time in between to see how it is going.

    They are also interested in serological testing on a voluntary basis. Their goal is to test the people working in the supermarkets, pharmacies etc in order to determine if the precautions that were put in place for these people were successful, or if these people had been exposed to the virus despite the precautions.

    So all-in-all a conservative model to move away from the lockdown.

     

    Jim

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:04am

    #7
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    CBellu What is the treatment for COVID-19 in your area?

    I can't say the same for France versus Switzerland. Thanks to this blog I went months ago to a hardware store pretending I was buying masks for painting 3M with valve (if I get sick this type of mask it does not protect others). No one was buying masks - I was surprised - my wife wouldn't let me wear them at first - there waren't any recorded cases in our area. CBellu, we are doing the same things as you have listed. To get R0 below 1 - got to wear masks all the time out of the house - with everything else you said.

    For me the key point that we are not discussing here:

    If you get sick, what happens to you - what is your protocol?

    In France I phone 15 (emergency) they contact my doctor, I get tested. For the treatment that they give me - I HAVE NO CHOICE. I can't drive down to Marseille and ask for a treatment by Dr Raoult. The government has made it their policy to screw things up at every step - I could write pages about this - not allowing a treatment including Hydroxychloroquine from the very start falls into their apparent strategy to give the worst possible results - creating the most panic and dispair. And we are just at the cusp of seeing what this will do to the economy. Malthusian philosophy - too many people vying for too few assets - Club of Rome stuff - Limits to Growth.

    I am not asking you to join me on my rant, but rather:

    Do you know what the treatment is in your area once diagnosed?

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:06am

    #8
    stoff75

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    Update on

    Just a small note regarding the Swedish strategy on this. The strategy is simply "keep a low body count", which translates to "protect the people that would end up in intensive care from even getting the virus" and the main focus has been elderly (70+). So they are ok with everyone getting the virus at some point or another, as long as we don't end up in the hospital, or dying, that's ok.

    The reason they aren't invoking forced isolation (yet) is because they expect this to be a long battle and keeping people locked up isn't a long term solution.

    Also, they recently tested 100 random samples of donated blood and 11 of them had antibodies. Sure, small sample, but at least they didn't know they were being tested as opposed to the Stanford study. (source - https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/11-procent-av-stockholmarna-har-antikroppar-mot-covid-19) They also say in the end that of course there is a margin of error that they approximate to 20%. So worst case is 9 out of 100. Which is still far off from 80% but it's a start.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:21am

    #9
    French connexion

    French connexion

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    Are you ready?

    Just a quick story from my past. I went into my broker's office in 1987 a week or so before the crash. I saw someone I know and went over to say hello. She volunteered to say that she wasn't doing anything risky like I do. To which I replied, if everyone is doing the same trade (type of investment) at some point eventually that trade becomes more risky.

    All that to say - buying Gold - I have NEVER heard a financial advisor (in banking) admit that owning Gold could be less risky than a dividend yielding stock.

    What happened yesterday for crude oil is a lesson worth learning - because futures markets govern the way Gold and Silver are manipulated by Central Banks and many feel that it our (precious metal holders) time at bat.

    Like at Le Mans - the drivers start outside of their cars. Get ready.

    https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland/status/1252162395386122241

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:29am

    #10
    albacore

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    Be Like Sweden?

    One pillar of Sweden's strategy appears to be the belief that there is very little asymptomatic spread - "don't go out if you feel ill". I don't expect that to pan out too well.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:34am

    #11

    davefairtex

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    the denominator

    There are two parts to this testing project.  1) to understand how close we are to "herd immunity", and 2) to calculate the denominator in the CFR.

    This second goal is, to me, the most critical thing government can be doing right now, because the denominator will tell us how severe is the threat we face, and that threat level should inform our policy decisions and what our response should be to it.

    If the CFR number is 0.1% (i.e., "the flu"), locking down the economy is just silly.  If the CFR is 3%, then a lockdown might be a rational response.  I'm guessing the true CFR is somewhere in the middle.

    We have seen hints that the true CFR might - might - be somewhere around 0.3-0.5%, assuming a non-overloaded hospital system.  Which, by the way, we managed to avoid quite successfully.

    If my guess is in the ballpark, and if this virus tends to (mostly) kill the people who also tend to die during normal influenza season, then we might decide, as a nation, that we just have to suck up a certain number of deaths via virus, as opposed to the (possibly greater) number of deaths in the population from suicide, depression, and poverty that are direct results of the lockdown.

    We should probably do the math on the latter, while we're at it, so we keep everything rational.

    But right now, we just don't know the denominator, so we can't even start to have any sort of rational discussion.

    So - in summary - we need that denominator.

    If I were Bad Orange Man, I'd order my flunkies to get me that denominator, and get it to me yesterday.  Then we could assess together as a society just what sort of danger we are facing and what our response should be.

    Using, you know, science.

    If CFR isn't that bad, then we open things up, and just deal with the surge of cases we're likely to get.  Because we will know for sure that poverty and depression and suicide from lockdown will end up being collectively more lethal than SC2.  Theoretically.  If we had the denominator.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:36am

    #12
    albacore

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    Latest chart from UK Office of National Statistics

    This is total deaths recorded - it's a lagging indicator and different in scope from the daily published count of hospital deaths:

    (It's also only England and Wales.)

    Don't know if this demolishes my theory that our shut down would be reducing the mortality from flu - could some Covid-19 pneumonias be counted in that little bump in "Influenza and pneumonia"?

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:53am

    #13

    davefairtex

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    Sweden CFR?

    Ok.  Let's take "Be Like Sweden"'s numbers at face value as an exercise.  Using most conservative numbers from this test (9% of the population has antibodies), over a population of 10.2 million people, with 1580 deaths to date, then that would be a CFR of (roughly) 0.017%.

    CFR = 9% infected x 10,200,000 pop / 1580 deaths

    Influenza's CFR is 0.01%.  So this is not quite twice as bad.

    But wait, what about the lag?  Ok, let's factor in a lag - it takes time for people to die from infection.  So let's triple the deaths.  1580 becomes 4740.  That gives us a CFR of 0.51%.

    Worth shutting the country down for?

    [Now someone can run off and check to see if they used the low-quality Chinese antibody tests....]

    It will be 18 months before a vaccine will be ready.  Assuming it doesn't have problems too.

    Now - herd immunity.  Assuming a 10-day doubling time for SC2 in Sweden (they have definitely 'bent the curve', without a lockdown), how long will it take for herd immunity?

    With 918k people infected today (9% of 10.2M), Sweden is 3 doublings away from having 70% exposed.

    With a 10-day doubling time, that's just 30 days away.

    In Sweden, this thing "goes away" sometime in June.

    Anything wrong with my assumptions here?

    [EDIT: here's a chart on Sweden's stats - daily data, rather than cumulative]

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:55am

    #14
    French connexion

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    That didn't take very long

    No sooner did I open my "mouth" than the WCB got back to work - knocking risky gold (futures - get it in your mind - futures) down to alleviate future pain on stocks.

    OK Adam and Chris - for all your freebe guys - how about a Monthly SP chart going back to January 2009 to show the absolute carnage done to stock market so far.

    Yes, I'm only kidding. Lots more to come.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:10am

    #15

    davefairtex

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    gold plunge

    That gold plunge was actually caused by a mammoth drop in the front month crude futures, which plunged $12 in about 2 hours - to $11.79.  Front-month crude below $12.  Something to remember.

    After yesterday's negative prices in the delivery month, traders do not want to be long crude right now - what with those full storage tanks and all.

    Gold fell -30 [to 1682], silver -0.50 [to 15.09], platinum -42, palladium -217, all driven by the - near-panic again today in the crude oil futures markets.

    Not much of a bounce yet for gold & silver.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:25am

    #16
    French connexion

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    Dear Dave and Chris

    Gold had been going up into the London opening. Think LBMA.

    Chris:

    Yes indeed Don't believe the hype!

    From our good friend Didier.

    https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1252519819171311616/photo/1

    He says, It is not only in Paris where the devine guessing occurs. In Marseille we also have our Gods. Here are their predictions (authenic) during the course of time with the number of patients in ICU (reanimation) at AP HM.

    Like a hurricane model - same idea - in red, real life experience.

    End the confinement sooner than May 11th.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:43am

    #17

    sand_puppy

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    Ohio Prisons Controlled "COVID Experiment" Is Underway

    Ohio Prison Mass Testing of Everyone Finds Lots of Infected

    One state prison, Marion Correctional Institution, has become a hot spot of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ohio, with at least 1,828 confirmed cases among inmates.  [In addition, 109+ staff are also infected.]

    "Because we are testing everyone — including those who are not showing symptoms — we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic."

    There are currently 2,400 coronavirus cases among inmates in [all of] Ohio's state prisons, along with 244 staff members. The numbers could rise this week: A prison in Pickaway County began mass testing on Sunday.

    I will be very interested to see how the next month goes in Ohio.  Will prison death rates spike?  Will infected prisoners be released and sent back to their communities to both 1) infect others, and, 2) bring low-grade sociopathic crime back to their communities?

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:47am

    #18

    sofistek

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    Stanford and NYC

    Thanks for dissecting the Stanford study. I suspected it was completely wrong by applying the CFR estimate to New York City. Taking the deaths there and the population size, it was clear that the Stanford estimates were way out. But I didn't see where they went wrong so thanks again for doing that work. Perhaps you could offer your peer review, to save time ensuring it doesn't get published?

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 5:30am

    #19

    LesPhelps

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    US Testing

    Dr. Albert Bartlett, one of my hero’s, liked to say, “do the math.”

    So, the US population is somewhere above 329,546,904.  I’ve looked around at recent charts and what I see is daily testing levels around 14,000 to 16,000 per day.  That makes me wonder how we get new cases showing up in the neighborhood of 30,000 per day.  That implies that, if some people test negative, we are testing more than 30,000 per day.  Which number is right?

    So, being really generous, let’s say we are testing 50,000 people per day.

    The math: 329,546,904 population / 50,000 tests per day / 365.25 days per year = 18.04 years to test everyone in the US.

    If you use 20,000 tests per day, it’s over 45 years to test everyone.

    The reality is, our government isn’t very useful any longer.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 5:42am

    LesPhelps

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    Long Term Solution

    The reason they aren’t invoking forced isolation (yet) is because they expect this to be a long battle and keeping people looked up isn’t a long term solution.

    As bad as it sounds, this is beginning to look like the least terrible of really terrible options.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 7:05am

    albacore

    albacore

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    Sweden or Stockholm-area

    @davefairtex

    One assumption that needs some thinking about is translating blood tests in Stockholm to the whole Swedish population. How would that change the model?

    Edit: one other thing I'm curious about - in general, I mean, not in your model - is what constitutes a 'case' when we fall back on the stat that flu has a CFR of 0.1%? Is it the same definition of case we are currently using around Covid?

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 7:37am

    #22
    Coronaphobe

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    Another study (this one from USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health) mirroring the Stanford study's outcome

    http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328

    I haven't had time to research it yet, but I'm curious if they got their antigen test kits from the same China-supplied third part as the Sanford folks.

    "Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600."

    And this:

    "The test's accuracy was further assessed at a lab at Stanford University"

    And, look who it is:

    "In addition to Sood and Simon, other authors and institutions contributing to the study include [...] Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford University School of Medicine"

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 7:40am

    #23
    albacore

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    CFR for flu

    Trying to answer my own question in my previous comment - "what is 'case' in flu's CFR?" - I tried a little digging of my own. (Only a little digging, mind. I still have to work!)

    Looking at this CDC page, we have estimated deaths compared to other estimated stats: hospitalisations, medical visits and symptomatic illnesses: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

    Comparing deaths to symptomatic illnesses for the 9 years on this page, I get an average 'CFR' of 0.12, which is pretty much on the money for the 0.1% CFR that people typically quote for seasonal flue.

    Note that the denominator here is not who was exposed to the flu, but who had a symptomatic illness.

    @davefairtex - that might be another thing to factor in to your Sweden model - how many people might experience Covid asymptomatically, or in a truly mild form?

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:11am

    davefairtex

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    our 2 policy options

    albacore-

    After thinking about this...I realize we as a society have two policy choices:

    Choice 1) have everyone hide away at home, where everyone tries hard to keep from getting it, until a vaccine appears.  That's 18 months - assuming it even works.  We don't have a working influenza vaccine, for instance.  But the plan is to mostly hide for 18 months, only letting people out if they can prove immunity.  Odd thing is, people can only prove immunity if they get it, so this kind of morphs into choice #2.

    Choice 2) hide away at home ONLY as necessary to avoid swamping the hospital system, but keep most of the economy open, only limiting things when that hospital system swamp threatens, and assume everyone gets it eventually.  Note that proving immunity is not required with this plan - although might be required to work in nursing homes, etc.

    Those are our two choices.  Either avoiding getting it and wait for the vaccine, or assume everyone gets it, but slowly enough to avoid swamping the system.

    Many states appear to have selected Choice #1, without fully realizing it.  There is no hospital swamp happening anywhere except NYC.  So unless we're selecting Choice #1, the other locations should remain open until such time as a swamp is projected to happen.

    Note: we would only deliberately select Choice #1 if the true CFR was "too awful to face."

    We would select Choice #2 if we decided that the costs of hiding (both economic and psychosocial) outweighed the deaths from the true CFR.  (Suicide, depression, drug & alcohol abuse, etc).

    Note: it is likely if we choose to hide for more than 3 months, we will drop into a "Great Depression", due to the widespread defaults that will happen as an unintended consequence of shutting down the economy for that length of time.

    I believe that the effects of a great depression on the population would far exceed the true CFR of this particular virus.  That's just my guess, based on a cross section of a number of population testing studies which all more or less say the same thing: big percentage of asymptomatic or lightly-symptomatic people means true CFR is a small fraction of what we're seeing at the hospital, e.g. perhaps a 0.3-0.5% CFR across the whole population.

    So.  Either we crush our economy (18 months!) to avoid the 0.3-0.5% CFR, or we bite the bullet, reopen, and assume everyone will eventually get it, a fraction of people do die, and we retain much of our economy.

    Choice #1 or Choice #2.  That's it.

    Please tell me if I've missed anything.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:16am

    #25

    sand_puppy

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    Just count daily deaths

    Very good discussions.  Thank you guys.  DaveF said:

    We need the denominator.  (Total numbers who have been infected)

    But we are not going to get the denominator.  The testing infrastructure, test kits and money is not there.  (And I suspect that the will to find this number is not present.)

    As Les has pointed out--

    So, being really generous, let’s say we are testing 50,000 people per day.

    The math: 329,546,904 population / 50,000 tests per day / 365.25 days per year = 18.04 years to test everyone in the US.

    The logistics of finding the denominator in the USA are insurmountable, IMHO.

    -------------

    And the disease distribution is PATCHY making all of the average numbers meaningless for a specific location.  Policy based on average numbers will be wrong for specific locations.

    Disease dynamics in densely packed cities with subways will be very different from car-centric suburbs and farming communities.

    Managing the disease with skill would need very different approaches for different locations.

    ------------

    Just count the dead

    So, lets simplify.  Just count the dead (and the nearly dead--ICU admissions).  And make it location specific.

    Forget cases, numbers infected, test kit accuracy, immunity, antibodies, cumulative all cause deaths, etc. etc.   Just today's deaths for each specific location.

    Lots and lots of people are going to die of this.

    This is the foreseeable result of having some of the best scientific minds work on the task of combining genetic material from various coronaviruses seeking ever more virulent infections.   (here and here for example).

    Then we have the problems of

    Is it possible that this profound level of "failure" is entirely accidental?

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:16am

    #26

    AKGrannyWGrit

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    Granny’s a pain in the ass, I know. But I represent the poor. And here is my question, so what?

    Yes, Chris is wicked smart, I know that and you know that.  The Stanford study was wrong and Chris showed the errors in logic and calculations, that needed to be done.  But as a member of almost poor class.  I have to wonder, how does that affect or help us?  The question that pops into my head is so what.  Why is that important to us, we are lied to every day, all day.  Whats one more wrong study.  Sorry Chris I am not part of your group think guys.

    Here is our reality.  You know its much better that you stay home and watch your kids be hungry, homeless, stressed and afraid than risk some elderly person with health problems from getting ill.  We poor and middle class get the message.  The only people who matter are those who might get this disease.  Those being evicted, they don’t matter, the person unemployed, they don’t matter, the highly stressed, they don’t matter, the broke and hungry  they don’t matter.  Yep, be a prisoner, shut the f-up and take it, cause we said so.  This is what some, probably a lot of the poor, working class are thinking.

    And how are those portfolios looking?  Your garden?  Like your electric coffee pot and that nice cup of hot coffee in the morning?  Enjoy them.  The harder the jackboot of oppression is used on the poor and middle class the less likely it is you will be able to fully enjoy those luxuries in the future.

    Katness to Panam in the movie The Hunger Games “If we burn - you burn”.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

     

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:32am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    11+

    Granny is right too

    I've said this before, just think about who is threatened by this illness:

    Older, fat, diabetic, heart issues, hypertension, weakened immune systems.

    How many of our elite fit this description.  Most of them?  All of them?

    Might that be driving the enthusiasm for widespread lockdowns?

    "Holy crap.  I might actually die.  Everyone has to stop doing everything.  NOW.   Until I SAY DIFFERENT."

    [Now where's my $13 chocolate?]

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRCgyg_2E4s

    Worst - yet most truthful - video interview ever given by our Speaker of the House.

    [Note: this experience is actually bipartisan, but - I couldn't resist picking on Nancy]

    Ever wonder why Congress is not in session?  They're terrified, that's why.  They all are directly targeted by this illness.  It has them all in the crosshairs.  10% CFR.  Or worse, since half of them don't dare take HCQ, because it might be validating Trump by accident.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:42am

    #28
    Chris Martenson

    Chris Martenson

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    Joined: Jun 07 2007

    Posts: 5295

    20+

    Granny - Time to Take a Break?

    Here is our reality.  You know its much better that you stay home and watch your kids be hungry, homeless, stressed and afraid than risk some elderly person with health problems from getting ill.  We poor and middle class get the message.  The only people who matter are those who might get this disease.  Those being evicted, they don’t matter, the person unemployed, they don’t matter, the highly stressed, they don’t matter, the broke and hungry  they don’t matter.  Yep, be a prisoner, shut the f-up and take it, cause we said so.  This is what some, probably a lot of the poor, working class are thinking.

    Hey Granny - I'm not taking any of this personally because I can recognize wounded projection when I see it.

    You are taking offense where none exists, you have a wound around being poor, down-trodden.  I get that.  I think we all get that.

    My very serious questions to you are, "how does holding tightly  to that mindset serve you?"  and "What do you get from casting yourself into and living into the role of victim?"

    Because, you might hate hearing this, but it's a choice.  People can be poor and happy.  I know, because I was among them.  For much of my late teens and early 20's I was living on very little.  At one point I was a climbing bum, living on (I shit you not) $5/wk.  Refried beans, tortillas, and government cheese.

    That was one of the happiest periods of my life.  I was totally unconcerned with "not having enough" or what rich people might have thought of me.  Didn't concern me in the slightest.  Still doesn't.  Probably why I can do what I do.  I'm not dependent on outside approval to be who I am.  My economic status and my happiness were not interconnected.

    Relatedly, I was just talking with someone yesterday who was speaking with their sister who themselves was on their sixth episode of the The Office at 2:00 in the afternoon, thinking about baking another rack of cookies because, who cares, already too fat already.  My friend asked his sister if she'd thought about using her time differently, perhaps learning a new language, or an instrument.  She flew off the handle, yelled at him and hung up.

    Not because he was wrong, but he was right and she knew it.  She was her own prisoner, and nobody else's.

    The moral of this story is, you are the master of your own ship.  Nobody else.

    The lesser point is that your words are totally ineffective on me because I have no ability or any interest in taking on your pain as something that I have any control over or responsibility for.  I'm old enough and wise enough to know that there's nothing I can do to ease your inner pain.  So, no thanks, you can keep that monkey.

    I have gotten to where I am in life through hard, persistent work.  I worked hard.  I started from pretty much nothing except a decent upbringing.  Because of this, any attempts to try and shame me into thinking that this was wrong, or at the expense of others really aren't going to work.

    But I can sense that you are really stressed.  I get that.  What can I (we) do to help?

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:50am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    the denominator

    SP-

    We can calculate an approximate (or, "accurate enough") denominator by doing a reasonably-reliable survey of the population (maybe 1000-2000 people, in 5-6 regions), testing everyone twice to deal with test flaw issues.

    Then we offset by the lag (average time to fatality for the COVID deaths - from point of detection through death), and then divide the lagged number of COVID deaths in those regions by the region's approximate denominator.  Bang, we get the True CFR (tm).

    With the True CFR (tm), we can have a rational policy discussion.

    Give me a few million bucks and I could make it happen.  Only run the second test if the first comes up positive.  That should satisfy Mr Bayes, for the most part.

    Once we have True CFR, we have the rational conversation.

    Note I'm sidestepping all the rest of the tinfoil hat stuff; there is probably a pony in there somewhere, but going there won't get us to that rational conversation any faster.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:53am

    albacore

    albacore

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    Joined: Jul 20 2014

    Posts: 50

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    Like pinning jelly to a wall

    @davefairtex

    I'm finding it so hard to have meaningful discussion here. You start a discussion about Sweden, ask the group if there's any assumptions you missed, I highlight a couple that might be interesting, and straightaway you're on a different tack, asking me to choose between the only two options you can imagine we have.

    Who says there's only two options? That's another assumption.

    Then another assumption: "elites" have comorbidities, that explains why they're responding like this. Surely that's an empirical question, and based on my limited understanding of poverty and health I would expect the poor to have much more to fear from this virus than the rich.

    Another one (following Granny): it's either screw the poor or back to work. But why can't the poor get the bailout, rather than the rich? Other countries are providing much more support to their populations than the US - doesn't that provide a different way of addressing the challenge? As Chris said in the video (paraphrasing): I wonder what they mean by 'Be Like Sweden'?

    Perhaps the best we can hope for from BTL commenting is to challenge each others' assumptions. That could be a valuable thing. I don't know, I'm just feeling a little ground down by it all.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:54am

    #31
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Jul 18 2008

    Posts: 223

    1+

    fatality rates

    I am impressed by the math ability of people here. I agree with Sandpuppy that death rates can be used to estimate overall infection rate.  Since we don't trust data from China, I think the New York data when the death rate goes down to double digits could be useful to determine the final CFR.  The current rate is a little less than 500 per day for the state. They still are not adding deaths at home of those who aren't tested as far as I know so the data will be a little off.  They are  doing "random sampling" of antibodies  to get 3000 people tested  and it should prove interesting in understanding total infected in a highly congested area. People in more rural areas should have a much slower progression obviously. They haven't announced publicly where the antibody testing is being done but have heard supermarkets anecdotally.  Our final death rate with this first wave, since this thing was running around for quite a while before the lockdown, should give guidance on what to expect at the END of this wave elsewhere.   Hotspots could adjust their guidelines and hopefully intelligent people will demand masks for all and keep it at that.   The deaths from poverty, suicide, unemployment, substance abuse and delays in treatment for other conditions will have a very long tail in this situation....masks masks masks.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:02am

    #32
    searring

    searring

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    Joined: Dec 02 2017

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    N.E.J.M. Study on New York OB patients

    Limited, but interesting study on OB patients, most testing positive were asymptomatic, published in the New England Journal of Medicine

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2009316

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:04am

    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 197

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    Dear Chris

    I don't know what is wrong with us but as you explained in your podcasts there are two problems.

    One the virus.

    Two the economy.

    Our reaction to the virus was supposed to help us get the health system back under control.

    As you explained - I thought very well - the Oil market situation is a terrible sign of our economic health. I hope some of the people on this blog could talk about it - the economy - because the two are linked now, and we desparately need to get them uncoupled. The world economy seems about to fail. If there is nowhere to store oil - in a very short time almost all US based oil production will be landlocked - confined to "la maison" just like me. I don't think that the FED has any levers for that type of problem.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:05am

    #34

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1043

    5+

    Yes Dave, I think you missed something

    We live in a cast system.

    The lower cast, hourly wage, service providers, typical blue collar workers are more vulnerable.  So your two choices do not apply evenly to the population.  Choice #2 is the only choice for us.

    Really, how can an hourly worker, say a hairdresser survive?  If they don’t work they don’t get paid.  Remember sick leave does not exist for the self employed unlike the corporate worker.  Paid vacation, nope, paid floating personal days, not for the small self employed. Two week vacation, save up for that.  18 month quarantine?  Where do we find thick cardboard boxes to live in.  Begging in the streets, I know the new “Reality TV Series - we could call it “Lets Watch Them Suffer”. Homeless camps, evictions, where to find a bathroom.  A lot of rich stories to tug at peoples heart strings.  It could be a hit.  The people in the most pathetic and gruesome circumstances could be showered with money and prizes and the viewers clap and cheer and feel warm and fuzzy when they switch off the power.  Yeah, that could work.

    Anyway not so sure your analysis provides for a fair representation of the entire population.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:08am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    2+

    sorry about that

    albacore-

    Yeah, sorry about that, I started to answer, and then got this mind-picture of where we were in this whole process that sort of took over my brain.

    One assumption that needs some thinking about is translating blood tests in Stockholm to the whole Swedish population. How would that change the model?

    We can get to a true CFR using just the blood tests.  Definitely sorting out "distance to herd immunity" is a regional thing, and would require wider testing outside the main cities.  Presumably, there is less infection in the countryside.

    Edit: one other thing I’m curious about – in general, I mean, not in your model – is what constitutes a ‘case’ when we fall back on the stat that flu has a CFR of 0.1%? Is it the same definition of case we are currently using around Covid?

    I was assuming a case was actually an infection, rather than someone showing up with symptoms at a hospital.  Maybe cases for flu really are people showing up at hospitals.  Although if you have to go to a hospital for your flu, my goodness, I bet fatality rates are higher than 0.1%.

    It is an interesting question though.

    I remember looking at a NAC study that ran through a flu season, and noted that 25% of the control group tested positive for the flu, but showed no symptoms at all.  (50% of people taking NAC showed no symptoms either).  Both groups got flu in the same amount, FWIW - just the NAC group didn't notice, and/or the symptoms weren't as bad.  Just to say that flu has asymptomatic people too.

    So chasing down what 0.1% really means might be useful as well.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:25am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    6+

    hourly workers

    Granny-

    I agree with everything you said about the situation of typical blue collar workers.

    Here's my point: I'm hypothesizing that policy is being set by the elites, to serve their own needs of avoiding infection and possible death.  Nancy can eat chocolate and avoid infection for the next 18 months until the vaccine arrives.  Her lifestyle will not be impacted much, if at all.  She'll probably get fatter, but that's about it.

    Your blue collar service industry workers will all basically end up in cardboard boxes, and then they'll die of poverty, as the economy plunges into a great depression.

    If put to a vote, I'm guessing your group would wholeheartedly vote to risk the virus (they tend to be exposed to more risk every day anyway - crime, poverty, illness, etc) rather than cower at home and end up for sure living in that cardboard box, which is the sure next step to an unpleasant death.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 10:32am

    #37
    Jeff

    Jeff

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 17 2012

    Posts: 68

    9+

    N=1 My experience with COVID-19

    I am a fire fighter in the San Francisco Bay Area.  My Fire Department was the first in the east bay to implement a public testing facility.  There are some interesting N=1 points I would like to share:

    -Members 0f the Fire Department have all been tested numerous times over the last 4 weeks, ZERO positives out of appox 400 tests

    -At the test site, approx 10% positives,  those who get tested are healthcare workers, first responder, law enforcement and those who pass a general screening(fever, contact with COVID 19, etc.)

    -We come in contact with Positive Covid 19 daily, sometimes numerous patients

    -Everyday I go to work and interact with 15 people, all of us have been in direct contact with Covid-19 patients.  Until recently, most did not adhere to strict PPE measures.  Ex. just gloves and surgical mask, walk into a infected convalescent home, treat patients, come back to the fire station, cook, exercise in common area and perform daily activities.

    - If this gets into a advanced care facility, it seems to infect over half the people, high percentage don't make it.

    - It has not seemed to effect the homeless like we thought it would, not sure whats going on here.  They often live in close proximity, with high drug use, not exactly healthy people.  Maybe being outside has something to do with it.  Not sure

    Personally, I can't believe our departments infection rate is zero.  It seems strange with how infectious this seems to be.  Not sure whats going on here.  Its not a lack of testing issue.  Until recently, last 2 weeks, responders have not taken full PPE and Decon measures.  Besides the Care homes, it does not seem to be making a run in our city.  Of the nurses I have talked to they definetly have lots of Covid 19 positive patients, mostly from care homes.

    Anyway thought I would share.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 10:34am

    #38

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1043

    14+

    AKGrannyWGrit said:

    Chris you mis-interpret my post.  It is an opportunity to open the door wide and say “this is why it matters that the narratives are wrong”!  Lets connect the dots so we can make decisions based on the data.  If the data says this we can conclude (blank) and that is how it affects the larger picture.  If we conclude the numbers in the document are wrong  it means (X) and that says something entirely different about the larger picture.

    You are taking offense where none exists, you have a wound around being poor, down-trodden.  I get that.  I think we all get that.

    My very serious questions to you are, “how does holding tightly  to that mindset that serve you?”  and “What do you get from casting yourself into and living into the role of victim?”

    Why are you placing me in the role of the victim?  This site caters to the wealthy and I am bringing in some dialogue about how this Pandemic situation and heavy handed tactics affects the poor.  Just because I can relate to the poor, know and understand them does not mean I see myself as a victim.  I am not taking this personally either because if I were I would be offended that the subject is turned into a post about me when it is emphatically not!

    That was one of the happiest periods of my life.  I was totally unconcerned with “not having enough” or what rich people might have thought of me.  Didn’t concern me in the slightest.  Still doesn’t.  Probably why I can do what I do.  I’m not dependent on outside approval to be who I am.  My economic status and my happiness were not interconnected.

    Great, I am happy for you.  Now, please just try to put yourself in the shoes of a single mother who has no job, no income and no savings.  And no prospects.  Is she just supposed to what, don’t worry, be happy?  I don’t think you are understanding the enormity of stress, terror, anxiety and despair that people are going through.

    Relatedly, I was just talking with someone yesterday who was speaking with their sister who themselves was on their sixth episode of the The Office at 2:00 in the afternoon, thinking about baking another rack of cookies because, who cares, already too fat already.  My friend asked his sister if she’d thought about using her time differently, perhaps learning a new language, or an instrument.  She flew off the handle, yelled at him and hung up.

    Not because he was wrong, but he was right and she knew it.  She was her own prisoner, and nobody else’s.

    The moral of this story is, you are the master of your own ship.  Nobody else.

    So the message is, if a person can’t feed their kids it’s their fault, if they don’t have a job it’s their fault, if they have run out of money it’s their fault?  Are you suggesting that like Janet Yellen suggested they should have chosen better parents?  Remember this post is not about me its about the enormous amount of people who are barely holding on.  And blaming the poor for being poor does not help or is it accurate.

    I have gotten to where I am in life through hard, persistent work.  I worked hard.  I started from pretty much nothing except a decent upbringing.  Because of this, any attempts to try and shame me into thinking that this was wrong, or at the expense of others really aren’t going to work.

    But I can sense that you are really stressed.  I get that.  What can I (we) do to help?

    Again, my post was not about you and it was not about me.  I am happy you work hard and are successful! You chose to see my post about shaming, it wasn’t.  What can you do to help?  Have compassion for the thousands, maybe millions of people who are being devastatingly affected by this situation.  Relate your YouTubes to real people.  What real people care about is can I feed, cloth, protect and provide for my children and family?

    I know ever so many here love the analysis.  For real people, they only want to survive another day, to eat, be safe and have some dignity.  People should not have to beg! Nor should they be blamed for their dire circumstances. Analysis means little when your belly is empty and your afraid.  I simply want you to see, acknowledge and hopefully feel some of the pain that is pervasive, right now.

    I am not a victim I am a voice for the many that few are listening to.

    AKGrannyWGrit

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 11:24am

    LesPhelps

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Apr 30 2009

    Posts: 634

    4+

    I’m mostly with you PITB Granny

    Here is our reality.  You know its much better that you stay home and watch your kids be hungry, homeless, stressed and afraid than risk some elderly person with health problems from getting ill.  We poor and middle class get the message.  The only people who matter are those who might get this disease.  Those being evicted, they don’t matter, the person unemployed, they don’t matter, the highly stressed, they don’t matter, the broke and hungry  they don’t matter.

    I’m with you except for the “some elderly person” part.  First, it’s not just elderly people, as we’ve heard over and over again.  Second, how is placing a higher value on children vs elderly people any different than placing a higher value in a person because of their race or sex?

    I’m certainly not a saint in that respect.  They say obesity is the number one risk factor, followed by other “co-morbidities.”  I have to check myself when I think about people with self inflicted co-morbidities.  It’s easy to think, well, you did it to yourself.  I’m attempting to stay out of the personal worth value judgment mental game.

    But you are, I think, right.  I believe the price of shutting down the world economy is going to be completely unprecedented.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 11:24am

    Steven Kelso

    Steven Kelso

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 22 2018

    Posts: 26

    7+

    Assigning Blame

    An employer from years ago used to always say to me, "People are where they are in life because of the choices they have made." This may be true, but it's not the whole truth, and it certainly doesn't come from a place of empathy.

    Life is like a boardgame: some percentage luck and some percentage agency. These percentages are not static.

    It was luck when I stumbled upon the work of Damon Vrabel nine years ago. It was agency when I read his work and it lead to Peak Prosperity.

    It was agency when I read Prosper!, and it was agency when I decided to afford a portion of my budget to emergency preparedness.

    It was agency when I tried to be Paul Revere on these topics, and it was agency when the majority of people ignored the warnings.

    Empathy is good. Empathize with folks who experience bad luck, not apathy. When you empathize with people who relish in apathy, you become an enabler. That's called codependency.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 11:37am

    #41
    vshelford

    vshelford

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jul 13 2014

    Posts: 150

    4+

    Re LesPhelps Long Term Solution

    IMO, Les has hit it:

    "As bad as it sounds, this [not invoking forced isolation] looks like the least terrible of really terrible options."

    I think Chris is absolutely right to be furious about the utter chaos and lack of rational public decisions in all this, especially in the US where health care is so problematic for so many. The delays, the lies, the double-talk, the bail-outs at the top and the happy-talk but no real relief for everyone else has been epic piracy.

    I'm not up to all the statistical math - I'm assuming that, allowing for the largely imaginary nature of the numbers, that the exercises help us evaluate possible outcomes. Maybe. If the numbers aren't too far off and if nothing else pops up out of left field. Or even center field, like no vaccine that actually works and no herd immunity past a few months and no crippling long-term post-viral effects.

    Granny is right - the poor (and that includes everyone from the already homeless before this began to those whose lives were hard-working but in balance but are now up against total loss) in many cases have few or no options. Tragically few even with "opening up" now, because the customer base will have shrunk enormously, the supply lines are shattered. The virus turned an already visible but slow-moving train wreck into a nuclear explosion.

    There are no simple answers to the whole problem, however straightforward some of the targeted sections of it are (masks, distancing, gardens). In Canada, ongoing efforts to house the homeless, get more cash to more people, support essential services, still free medical care is mitigating some of it. But the fact is, we're in for heart-breaking, life-breaking, possibly violent times. Not for the first time in history, but certainly the first time in living memory. I'm not well-equipped for anger, but I grew up with it around me and know how bloody wasteful it is, how much emotional wreckage has to be cleaned up afterward, but people seem to need to go through it.

    Solution? There isn't one. I guess there will have to be many. and we don't know what they are yet. Those of us who can will grow food - kitchen gardens saved a huge number during the collapse of the Soviet Union, and that may be a big factor this time too. Every country will approach it differently, and we're all lab rats.

    One of the things I appreciate about PP is that a retreat into intellect can be a haven, when circumstances and the emotions are taking us apart. These discussions cover a lot of ground, and the feeling that we are at least facing the realities and discussing them openly is far better than not knowing what is going on.

    IMO and all that - no-one's likely to shoot me for being a Pollyanna, anyway.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 11:41am

    #42
    French connexion

    French connexion

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Mar 26 2020

    Posts: 197

    Dr Didier

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=34&v=HrJBppuSEmk&feature=emb_logo

    The virus has started to wane - seasonal.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 11:49am

    #43
    Orangedem

    Orangedem

    Status: Member

    Joined: Aug 30 2008

    Posts: 8

    Counter to Stanford study: Dutch Study (Reuters from 16 April)

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-study/dutch-study-suggests-3-of-population-may-have-coronavirus-antibodies-idUSKCN21Y102

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 12:31pm

    taz1999

    taz1999

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    Joined: Feb 25 2020

    Posts: 45

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    More like the common cold than flu

    Heuristically speaking, I'm a bit disappointed.  Flu virus is generally seasonal; colds not so much.  Heat, humidity, UV light, vitamin D; possibly all; seem to knock down the flu.  For about the last 6 weeks central FL weather has been sunny, generally warm (Maybe not so much humidity, so for FL it's been comfortable)  Covid case rates are still going up with no detectable inflection in rate.  So, disappointed.

    Evidence would also suggest the lock down is working as overall infection rates seem to be decreasing.  We're getting  to the "see we overacted" claim where you need to make the counter claim,  that's because we reacted.  So as we protest to get back to work,  people need to realize that the economy is not going to reset where it was, so a bit of caution should heed.  No V recovery here,  at best WwwW.  It's cliche but house of cards is appropriate. Takes a long time and care to build but once it falls you don't get to simply get the house back by re-inserting the middle card.  Small businesses probably already failed,  supply chains broke.  Heck, even oil is broken.  New era.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 12:44pm

    CBellu

    CBellu

    Status: Member

    Joined: Jul 01 2012

    Posts: 6

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    CBellu said:

    Hello French connexion,

     

    I am not quite sure what the treatment is here. I do know that you contact the health authorities and they ask about symptoms to decide if you are able to stay home or need treatment. In any case, if you need hospitalization, they send an ambulance (I guess this is the same most places) to take you there. I wanted to reply even though I don't think this was much help.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 12:50pm

    #46

    thc0655

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 27 2010

    Posts: 2063

    3+

    Another spokesman for the poor and blue collar

    https://mcclintock.house.gov/newsroom/columns/the-unseen-death-toll-of-covid-19-measures

    The accumulating death toll from Covid-19 can be seen minute-by-minute on cable news channels.  But there’s another death toll few seem to care much about: the number of poverty-related deaths being set in motion by deliberately plunging millions of Americans into poverty and despair.

    In the first three weeks since governors began shutting down commerce in their states, 17 million Americans filed for unemployment, and according to one survey, one quarter of Americans have lost their jobs or watched their paychecks cut.    Goldman Sachs predicts that the economy will shrink 34 percent in the second quarter, with unemployment leaping to 15 percent.

    Until the Covid-19 economic shut-down, the poverty rate in the United States had dropped to its lowest in 17 years.  What does that mean for public health?  A 2011 Columbia University study funded by the National Institutes of Health estimated that 4.5 percent of all deaths in the United States are related to poverty.  Over the last four years, 2.47 million Americans had been lifted out of that condition, meaning 7,700 fewer poverty-related deaths each year.

    It’s a good bet these gains have been completely wiped out, and it’s anyone’s guess how many tens of millions of Americans will have been pushed below the poverty line as governments destroy their livelihoods.  It’s also a good bet the resulting deaths won’t get the same attention.

    And that doesn’t count an unknown number of Americans whose medical appointments have been postponed indefinitely while hospitals keep beds open for Covid-19 patients.  How many of the 1.8 million new cancers each year in the United States will go undetected for months because routine screenings and appointments have been postponed?  How many heart, kidney, liver, and pulmonary illnesses will fester while people’s lives are on hold?  How many suicides or domestic homicides will occur as families watch their livelihoods evaporate before their eyes?  How many drug and alcohol deaths can we expect as Americans stew in their homes under police-enforced indefinite home detention orders?  How many new cases of obesity-related diabetes and heart disease will emerge as Americans are banished from outdoor recreation and instead spend their idle days within a few steps of the refrigerator?

    I have participated in many discussions among top policymakers in Congress and the Administration over the last few weeks.  Such considerations are rarely raised and always ignored.  Instead, policymakers fixate on   epidemiological models that have already been dramatically disproven by actual data.

    On March 30, Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci gave their best-case projection that between 100,000 and 200,000 Americans will perish of Covid-19 “if we do things almost perfectly.”  As appalling as their prediction seems, it is a far cry from the 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths the CDC projected in the United States just a few weeks before.  And even their down-sized predictions look increasingly exaggerated as we see actual data.

    Sometimes the experts are just wrong.  In 2014, the CDC projected up to 1.4 million infections from African Ebola.  There were 28,000.

    Life is precious and every death is a tragedy.  Yet last year, 38,800 Americansdied in automobile accidents and no one has suggested saving all those lives by forbidding people from driving – though surely we could.

    In 1957, the Asian flu pandemic killed 116,000 Americans, the equivalent of 220,000 in today’s population.  The Eisenhower generation didn’t strip grocery shelves of toilet paper, confine the entire population to their homes or lay waste to the economy.  They coped and got through. Today we remember Sputnik – but not the Asian flu.

    It’s fair to ask how many of those lives might have been saved then by the extreme measures taken today.  The fact that the Covid-19 mortality curves show little difference between the governments that have ravaged their economies and those that haven’t, suggests not many.

    The medical experts who are advising us are doing their jobs – to warn us of possible dangers and what actions we can take to mitigate and manage them.  The job of policymakers is to weigh those recommendations against the costs and benefits they impose.  Medicine’s highest maxim offers good advice to policymakers: Primum non nocere -- first, do no harm.

    This version corrects a miscalculation in the original release on the number of poverty related deaths in a population of 2.47 million.  The correct calculation is 7,700, not 111,000. 

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 1:03pm

    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Valid concerns vs. "Playing the victim"

    I re-read AKGranny's and Chris' posts. The subject line to Granny's post read, "Yeah, Granny's a pain in the ass, I know. But I represent the poor. And here is my question, so what?"  I recall from a prior PP kerfuffle that a PP member literally posted, in her defense, that Granny was a "pain in the ass" and then noted his appreciation for her perspectives. (I'd find the post but the PP site search function doesn't work properly.)

    Granny does provide an alternative perspective and voice for those that may not be well-represented among the PP tribe. Does she singularly represent all the poor (however defined)? Of course not. Does any PP member speak or represent the views of any particular ideology or subgroup? Of course not. In the future to avoid such criticisms, I would suggest Granny insert a qualifier such as "many" or "some" to make clear the otherwise obvious fact that she does not unilaterally represent the universal poor.

    Granny acknowledged Chris' expert analysis and conclusions reached of the flawed study. IMO, she then posed a valid question: "so what?", or essentially, how does exposure of yet another lie in a sea lies impact or change the harsh reality of those lower socio-economic class that are at greater risk of exposure and harm due to the pandemic and financial collapse?

    Chris responded that he wasn't taking her comments personally, chalking them up to her tendency towards "wounded projection" and to take "offense where none exists". I saw only one personal comment from Granny directed to Chris, which was that she wasn't part of his "group think guys."

    Chris stated, "...you have a wound around being poor, down-trodden. I get that. I think we all get that. My very serious questions to you are, “how does holding tightly to that mindset serve you?” and “What do you get from casting yourself into and living into the role of victim?”  

    It is perplexing to me that Chris would default to virtual armchair psychoanalysis, and co-opt all PP members in his assessment of Granny's supposed victim mindset and role. If genuinely concerned about Granny's mental state, perhaps a personal message to Granny might be more appropriate and effective.

    As founder and enormously respected principal of PP, Chris' views carry substantial weight among the PP tribe. Such a public labeling by Chris, with others piling-on, must feel like a punch in the gut to anyone on the receiving end. Please don't include me in the "We all get that" assessment of Granny's presumed psychological state. This assessment has the effect of dismissing or neutralizing any arguments Granny makes, attributing them to playing the victim/"wound projection."

    Coming from Chris, this concerns me. Recently Chris also took issue with another long-term PP member who asserted a different perspective than Chris on another topic. Chris' response to this alternative view included a suggestion for that member to depart the PP tribe via a "mouse click" away.

    In his response to Granny, Chris proceeded to detail his humble beginnings and hard-earned success; as well as his view that "People can be poor and happy."  I don't think Granny or anyone else has asserted any disagreement with that. Then he provided an anecdote about how a The Office binge-watching "already too fat already" woman got angry at a suggestion of how better to use her time, as an example of a self-imprisoned mindset.  Moral of the story, "You are the master of your own ship. No one else."

    Not withstanding the binge-watching fat angry sister/cookie analogy; well, yes and no. That ship sails, thrives or perishes based on some important and dynamic internal and external influences, only some of which can be mitigated by the captain of the ship (e.g., body and condition of the water and weather; condition and capabilities of the ship; number, knowledge and skills of crew (if any)). [Yep, we can debate that endlessly....]

    Then, more defensiveness and dismissiveness from Chris, "The lesser point is that your words are totally ineffective on me because I have no ability or any interest in taking on your pain as something that I have any control over or responsibility for. I’m old enough and wise enough to know that there’s nothing I can do to ease your inner pain. So, no thanks, you can keep that monkey."

    Say what???

    I think the point that Granny is trying to make, that may be lost on some here, is that there is a critical mass of people with very limited, systemically-imposed options, that are disproportionately impacted by this pandemic/economic collapse. This multi-faceted crisis has laid bare these disparities and many are suffering and are angry.  I did not interpret Granny's admittedly sarcastic depiction of the comfortably quarantined secure with their portfolios and electric tea kettles as a personal attack on Chris. I read this as a contrast or juxtaposition of just how different daily life is for those with few options in the face of very stark, even dangerous alternatives.

    While people with "cabin fever" are out putting others in danger with their protests to resume their right to go to the hairdresser or gym, those that work (or have been furloughed/laid off) at these or other high-exposure places have few viable alternatives but to place themselves at risk in these front-line occupations or circle the drain to further demise and despair.

    How we as a society, country, community, household and personally got to this dire state of affairs is and will be the subject of conjecture, study and debate here on the PP site and elsewhere. Meanwhile, those largely left out of the discussion but fully engaged in the daily grind of survival are asking "so what" does all that mean to their ability to put food on the table and a roof over their heads. I think that is a valid question.

    I appreciate Granny's persistence in raising these and other uncomfortable questions. Whether or not one appreciates her "tone", IMO Granny provides a valuable service in trying to alert others to the smoldering anger and potential for civil unrest brewing below the surface of this "controlled demolition".

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 1:32pm

    #48
    Truth9834

    Truth9834

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    Joined: Feb 05 2020

    Posts: 30

    1+

    More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study - anyone analyze this study?

    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/21/malaria-drug-virginia-coronavirus-study-198590

    Comments appreciated.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 1:32pm

    Linda T

    Linda T

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    Joined: Jun 09 2014

    Posts: 132

    15+

    Re: Valid concerns vs. "Playing the victim"

    Sparky1,

    I agree with you.

    "How we as a society, country, community, household and personally got to this dire state of affairs is and will be the subject of conjecture, study and debate here on the PP site and elsewhere. Meanwhile, those largely left out of the discussion but fully engaged in the daily grind of survival are asking “so what” does all that mean to their ability to put food on the table and a roof over their heads. I think that is a valid question.

    I appreciate Granny’s persistence in raising these and other uncomfortable questions. Whether or not one appreciates her “tone”, IMO Granny provides a valuable service in trying to alert others to the smoldering anger and potential for civil unrest brewing below the surface of this “controlled demolition”."

    For several months, off and on Kunstler in his bi-weekly blogs would say he doesn't like Trump, but Trump had tapped into that seething and smoldering anger and fury which had been building because of jobs being offshored, the growing wealth inequality, the pathetic health care system we have which is unaffordable for millions, etc. which helped him get elected back in 2016, which horrified the Deep State... So, this is another HUGE (to put it mildly, the collapse of oil futures, wow...) chapter in the demolition of our economy and the global economy, supply chains, future expectations and hopes..

    It reminds me of the beginning of the first book of his "World Made by Hand" series. A pandemic, economies collapsed, jobs and businesses disappeared, modes of transportation and supply chains collapsed... Landfills became an important source of physical resources.

    Linda

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 1:41pm

    #50
    moheli

    moheli

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    Joined: Nov 06 2011

    Posts: 36

    2+

    Real lethality of Sars-CoV-2 and reliability of RT-PCR

    Some experts wonder if extreme social confinement is the right way to deal with  a respiratory infection pandemic.

    It is if one plans to solve the pandemic with a vaccine. But if one counts on herd immunity without having to vaccinate 7,5 billion people,   absolute social distancing just stretches the crisis according to this expert and may cause more harm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

    Further:  ok, there are very bad cases of Covid19 and the virus may target more organs than the lungs, etc. but in Belgium the number of deaths between age 25 and 44 is 18. Zero deaths before age 25. At this stage you would wonder if confining these cohorts has any sense at all. Even between 45 and 64 "only" 273 died. (no data on co-morbidities in these casualties).

    The underlying reasons for deaths are numerous and I wonder more and more how much of the deaths are "from" covid instead of "with" covid. Here are some other reasons or crucial factors:  underlying diseases in unhealthy western (american) populations (obesity, diabetes, hearth diseases), undesired effects of the prescription drugs taken for the underlying conditions (often undermining kidneys, liver), resistance to antibiotics (needed to combat the opportunistic bacterial infections), intubation (ventilators) that may cause more harm than good, novel drugs with harsh side effects (denounced by french professor Raoult, e.g. remdesivir), understaffed/under-equipped medical systems after years of savings and just in time commercial organisation of hospitals, high smoking rates (Italy) and high level of heart diseases, high age (everage age of deaths in Italy is 81 many with underlying diseases), people who wait too long before consulting their MD because of poor or no health insurance or fear of being expelled, psychologic distress due to panic and/or isolation, maybe even CO poisoning from staying indoors all the time, knocking out hemoglobine

    It would be great to have a critical look too at the RT-PCR that seems to be unreliable according to some and not gold standard for testing and on which the whole sars-cov-2 thing is based.

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/the-ebola-test-let-the-tests-inventor-speak/5406779

    One of the authors together with the German dr. Fauci (Christian Drosten) of this German evaluation and protocol of the RT-PCR (among the first to come up with it) https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/wuhan-virus-assay-v1991527e5122341d99287a1b17c111902.pdf?sfvrsn=d381fc88_2

    is also the founder of TIB Molbiol Syntheselabor GmbH, the Berlin biotech company, who "sensed an opportunity" in the early days of january. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/a-berlin-biotech-company-got-a-head-start-on-coronavirus-tests

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 1:46pm

    #51
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

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    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 690

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    I am all for opening back up but not for letting it burn uncontrolled

    First I believe we are in an A scenario.  Where very few people have had covid and antibodies.   ( and even if a year down the road they wont do you much good.)   So, I think we go back to work, just give the disease some respect.    Meaning, we still do a lot of cleaning and hygiene.  Wear masks, distance where possible, except unless protected.  ( We have to change our way of life )   We still do TSA crap at the airport, the 911 threat is 20 years old. why not stop that?   that only killed 3000 total  AND look at the burden of that.      Just need to understand, and educate people how the disease spreads..   I am sure we can do it CZ style.   and not US style.  But I am pretty sure they will open up the US the way it was.   it will be another catastrophe .   The US is clearly at the bottom of the world managing this.. with exclusion to Italy.   But perhaps worse , as time will tell.  And after we do open back up and we will, it will be another blunder of epoch proportions.   You cant convince monkeys to use logic.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 1:56pm

    #52

    SagerXX

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 11 2009

    Posts: 456

    14+

    Unless the economy is allowed to reopen....

    ...and actually comes roaring back to life in short order, I expect the number of deaths due to poverty, riots, and food insufficiencies to dwarf the deaths from COVID-19.

    But I don't think the economy will be allowed free rein soon enough...and even when it's declared "open" I don't think it'll come roaring back.  Complex systems are fragile -- and the economy is already well along the process of shaking itself to pieces.  Witness the oil markets this week.  There's a dangerous contagion for you.

    You ever seen that youtube video of the engineering students (or mechanically-minded redneck tinkers?) who deliberately unbalance a washing machine and set it to spin mode?  What happens in that video could be a good analogue for the current state of the modern JIT economy.

    We may get a 1-2 punch:  a reopen, then the second viral wave (worse than the first?), and then the second lockdown, which finishes off what remained of the functioning economy.

    I think there will come a second period of time where we're all locked down in our houses, but it will be because the streets have become a violent and dangerous place to be.  Prepare accordingly...

    It's a beautiful day once again.  Spending it with my awesome 3-year-old.  Gonna do some chores, then watch a few cartoons, then lunch and a nap.  Yesterday he was introduced to the hilarious wonders of the self-retracting tape measure (courtesy of his uncle).  We're also working on potty training.  That transition was nearly complete until the Current Weirdness arose.  He has regressed quite a bit, sadly.

    Still no love from PPP, EIDL, or the stimulus payment.  Unemployment disqualified me from eligibility because, as I saw posted online "We don't know what to do with the self-employed."  Us formerly self-employed are eligible under the new rules, but the computer system is so old (programmed in COBOL, for FS!) nobody around knows how to modify the system.  (Why not just mark whatever box you have to, ie just lie to the software so as to process my claim?). They're actually posting asks on FaceBook for COBOL programmers to come out of retirement, if there's any left alive (who can still remember how to code it)...

    I have money put away and won't be in trouble for a while.  But my surmise is that about half of America is running out of money at this moment.  When that happens, and hunger and desperation begin to stalk the streets in earnest?  Watch out.

    VIVA anyway -- Sager

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:18pm

    alanrgreenland

    alanrgreenland

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    Joined: Nov 07 2010

    Posts: 57

    3+

    Modified "Choice 1"

     

    I don't think the only reason for the lock-down is to wait 18 months for a vaccine.  If we were using this time (however long it takes) to ramp up testing, as well as knock down the number of cases, we could get back to a "new normal".

    Why aren't we using the Defense Production Act to get reagents and swabs made, here in the USA (and everything else that is currently limiting our ability to test)?  Why is there so much hand waving and arguing about whether testing is "available" or we have "capacity" enough?  It seems clear to me (and especially clear to those on the front lines) that we are not able to do the amount of testing that we need.

    If we "open" the economy absent the ability to test, test, test (as well as to do contact tracing, and to administer a reliable treatment), then many rational people (myself included) will opt out, and the economy won't come roaring back.  (And we will just stay in a WWW cycle.)

    We need the Three Ts:  Testing, Tracing, and Treatment.

    The current effort to "flatten the curve" is meant to allow space to get all of those things into place.  BUT it seems clear that the Feds are not even serious about working on the first of these three, testing.  Instead, it's every State for itself, and best of luck to ya!

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:25pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    Joined: Jun 18 2012

    Posts: 248

    2+

    More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study - anyone analyze this study?Tr

    Truthman, no one is using zinc.

    Look, weird yet active chemicals do a lot of things in many complicated ways.  We know that hydroxycholoroquine has a special romantic thing with zinc and does some very antiviral things with it.  Yet an almost infinite plethora of reactions are possible with any drug you can imagine and you do anything with statistics, such as ignore and go around the most important factors in a relationship.

    The real reaction (subject) of this study is a political reaction.  A very special doctor is treating patients with this drug, along with zinc and the other drug.  He is politically incorrect because Trump likes him.  Political reactions ensue.  Eyeballs swivel and fingers leap into action onto keyboards.  Chit chat crapping ensues.  Money changes hands.  Feelings are enhanced and vindicated.
    Anyway, without more information, that is my analysis of this "study."

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:26pm

    moheli

    moheli

    Status: Member

    Joined: Nov 06 2011

    Posts: 36

    moheli said:

    That was one of my first thoughts. When they saw their high level brothers and sisters being hit by the virus (ministers, parliamentaries, royals, etc) and the fact that the age cohort most struck by the virus was mostly theirs (+50) they must have been real scared. I wonder if it had been the same if the virus had only hit kids between 0 and 15. The fact that 17.000 kids die everyday in the world is not causing so much concern. https://www.philstar.com/world/2014/09/17/1370112/un-17000-children-die-every-day

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:41pm

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1199

    5+

    Truth9834

    The paper for the Vets HCQ study is posted on MedRxiv;

    https://connect.medrxiv.org/relate/content/181

    http://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.04.16.20065920

    This is just another case of a study showing that there are few benefits to HCQ when given in the later stages of disease progression.  The patient population was already hospitalized, and already proven positive.  Here is a section from the paper;

    Baseline demographic and comorbidity characteristics were comparable across the three treatment groups. However, hydroxychloroquine, with or without azithromycin, was more likely to be prescribed to patients with more severe disease, as assessed by baseline ventilatory status and metabolic and hematologic parameters. Thus, as expected, increased mortality was observed in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, both with and without azithromycin. Nevertheless, the increased risk of overall mortality in the hydroxychloroquine-only group persisted after adjusting for the propensity of being treated with the drug.

    So this is where I call bullshit on the paper.  We already know that the benefits of treatment are heavily front loaded for this treatment.  They say that they, "adjusted" for the fact that in this study the HCQ group was even sicker than the non-HCQ cohort.. but did they really?  Is this even possible.

    This treatment regimen works when it's administered early, before someone is hospitalized, as with the TX nursing home population treated by Dr. Robin Armstrong.  Hopefully there will emerge other treatments that can save someone about to die on a ventilator.. but I don't think this is it.

    Edit:  As Mots says, no Zinc also.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 2:44pm

    #57
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 690

    3+

    @truth - Yet another dumbell study of HCQ

    yet another study of idiots.  What is odd - even the chinese early on said this was effective but not if used late.   By the time you are sick enough to be hospitalized , I agree this wont help you.   You need this when you first get sick , if you are in a risk group.    It has been shown to work when used with "ZINC"  and if you give it with out zinc and you are deficient ( as a lot are ) .. it does nothing ..  So early and with zinc.. Even I , would not use this once admitted to the hospital and without zinc.. So , more idiots want to save lives of dead people.. instead of live people.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:01pm

    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 690

    Jeff regarding zero infections in responders

    I cannot seem to make sense of this.  Are all the responders tested and collected by the same staff as others?  if its done by somone on your team, it could be a collection issue.  Or perhaps the tests are just unusually lowly sensitive and only picking up people with large viral load ( weak , infirm, nursing care .)   Id bet its a test sensitivity issue.   I do not believe you guys are walking around contacting people with this with minimal PPE and not getting it.   Of course , the biggest thing is to not touch your face.   But if you are going in where people are overtly ill, coughing etc, with no PPE - and not getting it , perhaps you all had it,   But it is worthy of questioning.   It definitely seems like it does not have a problem spreading.  So, what you are saying , is you are visiting people sick with this , but not getting it , without PPE..   It is hard to believe.   only thing that may be going on is something in the weather , where you are, that is making it not easy for virus to live outside the body very long.   This would also go to , what you said about fresh air and outside.. Well yes, if its very sunny there, a half our in the sun will nuke it off clothing , skin, gear etc....     so, perhaps.. its a combination of good climate,  normal hygiene,  and fresh air,   and getting this with a low inoculation.. again we have spoke about severity of illness and amount of inoculum.    So, I am going there for now.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:04pm

    #59

    sand_puppy

    Status: Platinum Member

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2404

    14+

    HCQ works in Stage 1, the viral replication stage

    A story of a Richmond doctor has been posted here a couple of times.  He became very sick and just prior to going on a ventilator was given an IL-6 blocker, the Roche drug Actemra.  Miraculous cure.  Fever and dyspnea gone in just a few hours.  Sent home the next day.

    This was the first formal statement of Stages of COVID-19

    Stage I

    Known as the early infection phase, this stage usually lasts about five days after contracting the virus. The patient can be asymptomatic or have a somewhat elevated fever and mild symptoms such as aches, pains and a cough.

    Stage II

    Known as the pulmonary phase, this stage usually takes place in days six through 10. The patient can have shortness of breath or have hypoxemia, which is low oxygen in the blood. X-rays and CT scans of the chest can reveal abnormalities in the lungs. During this stage, the body’s typical immune response diminishes, and the dangerous inflammatory response increases. The stage is broken into parts A and B to designate if the body is more in the viral stage or the inflammatory stage.

    Stage III

    Known as the hyperinflammation phase, this stage usually begins after Day 10 and can result in the patient suffering acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), systemic inflammatory response syndrome, shock, cardiac failure, renal damage or other problems. Cytokine storms can be found in both lungs.

    The HCQ/Zn/Azith is a Stage 1 treatment.

    Actemra, the IL-6 blocker, is a Stage 3 treatment.

    The VA study was RETROSPECTIVE and NOT RANDOMIZED.  How was it decided who got which drug?  By location?  The doctor's preference? The sickest?  Those with COPD?

    --------------

    And yes, you can design a study to produce a desired outcome.  For example, giving a drug active in Stage 1 to patients in Stage 3 and "showing it doesn't work."  This is the reason that the Cochrane Collaboration will not include in their meta-analyses any studies funded by a pharmaceutical company.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:12pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    how is placing a higher value on children vs elderly people any different than placing a higher value in a person because of their race or sex?

    LesPhelpes
    You hit the nail on the head by identifying the number one issue we all face: how to balance "opening" an economy vs deathrate (mostly) of old people.  You argued against making value judgements and stated: "how is placing a higher value on children vs elderly people any different than placing a higher value in a person because of their race or sex?"

    Sorry to say, but reality is a harsh mistress.  Here are some facts:

    1. when the ship goes down, it is "women and children first into the lifeboats."  When a society lacked enough food for everyone it was grandpa or grandma who went without instead of sacrificing the young adult or older child.  That was a fact.  Look it up.
    2. last I checked (it was quite a few years ago) the value of a human life in America according to the economic tradeoff was about $3.5 million dollars, when it comes to making decisions on adding safety features to consumer products.  (if a consumer product induced death such as death by propellers from boats or car brake costs more than $3.5 million to prevent, then the manufacturer does not have to do it)  Society deals with the cost/death tradeoff all the time.  We can live in our silver clouds and scream racism/sexism/patriarchy and pretend otherwise, but everything is a cost tradeoff.  Everything.
    3. doctors, nurses and other professionals judge young people's lives higher than the aged. This is a fact. Get used to it.  If an overwhelmed hospital faces young patients with many years ahead of them and a 75 year old with equal chances, but only one can be admitted, triage dictates the young person is saved and the old one is not.  I am not a medical expert but this is what I have read.  The unfair exception is if a politician or very rich owner of a politician enters, the rich (or wealth dispensing) person gets preference.  Maybe we need to discuss that.

    Children have a higher value than elderly people.  This is NOT the same as racial preference.   Our adversarial legal system has been dealing with this kind of problem in many ways for many years.  Unfortunately politicians are making these huge decisions based on nothing but quick feelings and emotive appeals.  That is the problem.  Not racism or sexism or (fill in the black) ism.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:23pm

    #61
    yagasjai

    yagasjai

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    Joined: Apr 18 2009

    Posts: 117

    8+

    Chris re Granny: What to do

    Those of us who have or come from privilege (I was raised middle class even though I have been poor over half of my life and have been working my way back towards middle class) may have a hard time seeing the whole picture- though no fault of our own. As brilliant and far reaching as our minds may be, as talented, or persistent, or hard-working as we may be, as well-respected and well-liked as we may be, we all have been raised in an oppressive system with certain biases that are baked right in. And simply by virtue of going through our lives within this context, we all absorb all kinds of biases we may not even be aware of. We may think ourselves fair, open-hearted, and earnestly value everyone getting a fair shake, yet sometimes, especially in times of stress, things leak right on out that we didn't even know we were carrying! LOL Happens to me all the time! That's part of the learning. But I have found that the learning goes a lot better if we start from a place of acceptance with ourselves (no blame).

    So that's where I start with you, Chris. You are the most brilliant, geeky, number-crunching, data-loving, information scout I know. I love watching you be you. I love the humor you bring, the sound effects, the masterful ability to explain mind-bending theory in ways that the average person can understand. And even though I am sure you are stressed and exhausted yourself, you bring joy to this work and it shows. It's easy to follow you because you are a *real* person. You call it like you see it. And there is great power in that. You don't act like you're better than everyone else and that goes a long way towards connecting with all kinds of people from many walks of life. It is clear that you genuinely want each of us to have our best shot at having a meaningful life, having "enough," and for us all to have a world worth inheriting. I don't think I would have enjoyed reading and watching your posts and videos all these years nearly as much as if you didn't enjoy what you do, yourself. It's so good that you are you.

    So blameless. You are cherished here. We know how good you are. That is not in question. And, as I have said before, something is missing for me on this site. Not just as a low-income person who has to translate a little bit in my head some of the stuff you say so I can see how it applies to my life. (I am *still* wondering about taking on debt to secure a property now. You answered the person in a previous thread who asked about buying cash. Unequivocal yes. You didn't answer the person who asked about what if you have to use debt- at least as of my last reading of whatever thread that was. I realize that you don't give advice. But sometimes the silence speaks more than you might realize, even without realizing that's happening or meaning it to. Again no blame, simply an observation from a long time member.)

    But back to your question about what to do. This is for you, and to anyone else reading this. Start from where you are. Because just as you said to Granny, we are the master of this ship now. It is up to us to steer this thing. We are the ones. And it's going to take ALL of us. Rich, poor, young, old, middle class, you name it. We have to figure out how to do this together. And as long as we are distracted by who's fault it is, we lose sight of the big picture, THE SYSTEM MUST CHANGE. We know something about sound money. We know something about resiliency. We have a lot to offer, from wherever we are starting from. We can all be expanding our awareness out beyond assuring that our own personal needs are accounted for, and looking towards how to assure that more people's needs are also accounted for. Only as safe as our neighbor.

    What to do? Go big. You know the ins and outs of the bailouts and that the money isn't reaching the people who really need it. You have a wide international following. Team up with others who also have clout who are working in the same direction (I've mentioned Rev Barber and the Poor People's Campaign previously.) Run a webinar on how to contact your representatives and what to say, so we can push-back on those bailouts. So we can push for regular people getting a bail out too. AND ALSO at the same time put your big beautiful brain together with all those other big beautiful brains you have access to come up with another way of doing this all together.

    Gold backed local currencies? Anyone? Those of us who have a HAA account, for example, would there be a way to use what we have collectively sitting in the vaults to back a real currency at the local level, that regular people, rich or poor, could depend on to buy bread? You were already aiming out of the box with some of your recent interviews- keep going! There has to be another way. And in finding one, there has to be a way for regular people to actually get their fair share (to borrow a phrase from permaculture.) So keep doing what you are doing and also push on the edges of where you are currently able to think. The new thing doesn't exist yet, so is hard to imagine, but keep putting your mind there, along with us putting ours there, who knows what we can do if we work it out together? There is a saying, I don't remember the source, that to go fast, go alone. But to go far, go together.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:46pm

    #62
    westcoastjan

    westcoastjan

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    Thoughts on thread discord...

    Regarding Granny’s initial comment, Chris’s response and the ensuing comments, my first thought was here we go again…. We have been here before on this site with similar situations. I personally have been involved in kerfuffle’s, one of which saw both sides with feathers ruffled enough to cause me to leave the site for awhile.

    I think the discussion and perceptions, whether erroneous or accurate or simply hurt feelings, are a symptom of a deeper core issue, that being that there are many people who want PP to show a more caring, humanized side beyond the data and technical analysis. That is not to say that Chris, Adam, and staff do not care about the poor or marginalized – I am certain they care a great deal. But my observation is that finding / presenting hard data is their forte. Providing additional insights into the impacts of that data on people, especially those that are marginalized, is not their forte. They tend not to go there, and to not provide what some might feel is requisite empathy to the downstream impacts of their data.

    If we look at this video as an example, the gist of it was Stanford is cheating/lying and Chris called em’ out on it. Great! And Granny, in a nutshell, says: ‘so what?’ I had the same thought myself. After reading the comments I wondered to myself if this would have been avoided if perhaps at the end of the video, in his conclusion, Chris might have added something to the effect of “exposing this lying and cheating may not seem so important to the millions who have lost their jobs or are struggling to cope with this horrific virus, but I think that it is important to report on this since policy makers rely on data from places like Stanford to make decisions that affect those same millions. It is critical to make sure that decision makers are getting correct and accurate information!” Or something to that effect. By adding such a statement, the all-important empathy factor is added to an otherwise dry and technical analysis that may indeed have left a lot of folks also thinking ‘so what?’.

    I think there are probably a lot of members who at times want or have wanted PP to be something that it is not. To use the analogy of friendships, we have different friends for certain things. While most have best friends, those are not necessarily one stop shopping who can fulfill all needs – physical, intellectual, mental, emotional, fun and leisure. I come to PP to exercise my intellect in areas of interest that are not necessarily easy to talk about in my circles. In that regard the site & forums are like an invaluable best friend. I have had to learn though that I cannot necessarily use PP to get my fix for talking about social justice issues and more egalitarian subject matter. Not for lack of trying or pissing some people off (lol). Just like accepting a dear friend who is a total dolt at sports will never be a great workout partner, I (we) need to accept that PP is not a go to site for things beyond their core focus as data driven information scouts. Pity that.

    It is going to hit the fan soon, to the point (I think) will make the Depression look like the good times. It feels like it is ever more important to try to impart a tone of empathy and understanding in all that we say and do. Most of us, some much more so than others, are well ahead of the game in terms of knowledge, awareness, and preparations. Would it be too much to ask for all of us to try to couch cold hard facts & discussions with a bit more humility and humanity? It certainly can't hurt and may make things a bit easier to handle going forward.

    Stay well everyone,

    Jan

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 3:47pm

    LesPhelps

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    Mots

    I never said I wouldn't gladly let women and children on the lifeboat first.  Among other things, that's part of the chivalry code I grew up with.

    Never the less, I'm getting thoroughly tired of the crowd that wants to open the economy up pointing out that it mostly affects older people, implying it is therefore not a big deal.

    BTW, as I've posted more than once, I'm on board with allowing people to go back to work.  I thinks it the best of the horrible options open to us.

    As an elderly person, I'm willing to risk the outcome of that decision, because it's the best thing for the majority, full stop.  No need to mention their age, race, sex or social class.  It's the best for all.

    Just try not to act like writing off the elderly is no big deal.

    By way of a post script, I'll throw a non sequitur in here.  I wonder what the rational of allowing women and ch

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:07pm

    #64
    Sparky1

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    IceAgeFarmer: CO2 Shortages Threatens Food/Water; more (video)

    CO2 Shortage Threatens Food/Water - National Guard Deploys to Meat Plants - Summer Outlook (4/20/20)

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:41pm

    #65

    sofistek

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    New York City as a check

    With so many confirmed cases and deaths in New York City, I wonder if it's possible to use that real place as a check on CFR estimates. The naive CFR (deaths as a percentage of all cases) is about 10% currently. If the infection CFR is really 1%, say, then that would imply 10 times the reported cases. Does that seem likely? How about an iCFR of 0.5%? that would imply there are really 2.1 million cases in NYC. The lower the iCFR estimate, the greater the likely number of real cases in NYC, with an iCFR of something like 0.15% implying everyone is a case. I don't know the positivity rate of testing in NYC but wouldn't a really high number of cases also imply a very high rate of positives (not 100%, since some people would no longer be shedders). If the positivity rate is very low, which seems to be the case in many countries, then that also implies that widespread infection hasn't happened.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:45pm

    #66
    Sparky1

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    Mike Maloney, "Oil Crisis Deepens: What I'm Doing" (video, 4/21/20)

    OIL CRISIS DEEPENS: What I'm Doing - Mike Maloney (4/21/20)

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:47pm

    #67
    nordicjack

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    Everyone's study is wrong about % infected.

    Apparently, the whole world wants to offer up 3-4 % upto 15% of population already infected with the virus.  Ultimately, showing that this has a CFR around 1 - 2 times that of the flu.   I am not sure what funny fuzzy logic people are trying to apply to their studies but - I can assure you with simple logic that this is far from the truth.

    1. If we used the flu ( that is what they are trying to make the CFR look the same as ), the estimated infection rate of that annually is approximately 8-15% of the population.   ( 35k deaths average per year out of 330M )   If we took 3-4% and applied the same CFR we would have only 11,500 Deaths Total in a whole year.  This math doesn't fit . Their narrative is false.
    2. The assumption is many many people have already had this and never even knew it.  So, many many people have already had this.  This again doesn't make sense.  Law of exponentials shows that once you get to a critical mass, of 3-4% of the population it would need just a couple weeks to saturate the entire populace ,  If it was mostly silent the way they suggest,  it would have easily moved from a few % to more than the whole world in less than a few weeks.   Even if it just had a small death rate, this would have been huge numbers.  Very close to what we are seeing, but we would not being seeing clusters, we would be in boom.  ( everywhere )  We have yet to see a similar out-come anywhere. This is impossible if we passed the boom stage.  We are not there.
    3. Hot zones,  We would not have hot zones if the numbers they project are accurate.  However, they may be accurate for the hot zone.   Meaning, they may take in infection rate in NYC but they are applying it to the total population of NY to give you a CFR or better yet the whole country.   Again, this is clearly false narrative.
    4. logic should dictate.  The flu does not cause young healthy doctors to parish.  The flu does not require refrigerated trucks to pile up bodies.  The flu does not cause the need to dig mass trough/trench graves.  The flu does not cause a shortage of medical supplies. The flu does not cause the massive organ failure and damage scene post-mortem.  The flu does not run through nursing care facilities leaving a wasteland of bodies.  This would be impossible to compare the two.  Any logic doing so, is clearly faulty.

    I am not sure exactly what the fatality rate of this is , or the current infection rate.  But I believe we are seeded and ready for the real explosion, and we are currently curbing it with our efforts.  Any nonsense otherwise,  is just wishful thinking.  I ask anyone who thinks this is benign as the flu, go sit in the hospital rooms with the infected.   UNPROTECTED. and take care of them.  Prove us wrong.  Actually, I think they are stupid enough to try it.  That is what they are pushing for.  Opening all back up.  Then, it will be way too late to shut it down.. What will they say when they learn they are wrong? opps.   Again, if you assume its benign and its already in the population, and its not you risk lots of damage.  But according to them , if you lock down everyone , the economy crawls, and people die.  So, we are better off to take our chances and gamble that its benign.. its human nature to reduce the pain now for greater pain later.   thinking they can avoid that pain forever.   Why do anything, why fight crime?  the costs outway the loss from the crime.  why have military, the costs to the economy outway the losses if we do not have one?  Why have security at airports, the costs way outway the loss of life if we do not burden our economy?   Why go out of our way at all, for anything that makes us safe?  Why the cost of an FDA?  the losses from bad drugs and unsafe food supply, dont warrant the impact on the economy?  Why fire protection, the cost for that exceeds the losses of homes and buildings?  Why have costly trauma centers, the few lives lost needing that level of trauma care do not offset the economic impact there.   Hell , I have an idea, lets just get rid of government all together and call it all acceptable losses.   Why is it so easy to do that with this? but not other things?   Oh, it kills old useless sick people..  everyone hates the disabled and old and elderly.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:49pm

    #68
    Sparky1

    Sparky1

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    Chris' newest video, "What Should I do with Mom and Dad?"

    Even Mild Coronavirus Cases Can Result In Lifelong Lung Damage (4/21/20)

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 4:54pm

    Jeff

    Jeff

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    Jeff said:

    I am not sure why, we are all wondering if those weird colds we had back in January were Covid.  We are taking full precautions now, for two weeks, so maybe a few of us will pop a positive here.  I’ve done the test 4 times, I have to say it’s pretty uncomfortable and I’ve used the same person 3 times.   I really don’t know what’s going on.  A few people from other departments have  some positive, but it’s definitely not widespread.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 5:05pm

    Mots

    Mots

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    LesPhelps

    I think that we can both agree that rational discussion and deliberation is needed but does not happen.

    Rationality is gone.  This is more than a fourth turning.
    In the absence of a rational functioning society we need to build our own.  The answer seems to always be the same: development of small resilient community, as it was during the ensuing dark ages following the collapse of Rome.
    I look forward to seeing what CM does in Massachusetts.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 6:03pm

    #71
    robie robinson

    robie robinson

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    JHK’s Line is an absolute.

    the “ remedievalization of modernity”.

    Collapse now and avoid the rush?

    is the mare settled?

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 6:53pm

    #72
    JWhite

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    On re-opening of societies & an important distinction

    I am not American and I can see that many of the comments in this thread are specific to the situation in the U.S.  However, for me there is a simple solution which does not presume acceptance of a sharp rise in infections or of deaths, or of hiding at home waiting for a vaccine. It goes back to what Chris has been saying for some time – the enforcement of a rule that everyone who leaves their home must wear an appropriate mask and follow other hygiene measures.  Manufacturing and providing the equivalent of N99 / FFP3 masks and surgical masks for all citizens should be the first order of business for governments who now wish to re-open their societies!  Forcing everyone to keep their germs to themselves, in addition to encouraging the sick not to be out in society, could go a long way toward a situation where the virus can ‘peter out’ and people are not so at risk. (And bandanas don’t cut it).  I read that South Korea advised citizens to also wear them at home at the beginning of their epidemic. Keeping borders and global travel shut down for the short term would also help.

    Inherent in the reasons for the virus testing and antibody testing is the decision surrounding a full re-opening of society and start-up of the economy, if it can be established that a majority of people have been exposed or the number of cases is decreasing. However, while the pandemic is still ongoing, in the absence of suitable masks for every citizen - which prevent a single virus particle from escaping (as well as other hygiene precautions) - that are worn from the time the individual leaves their home until they return, there is a serious risk to citizens. Many governments are currently implementing gradual re-opening of their societies, and most do not have appropriate masks and other hygiene measures in place.

    An important distinction:
    One observation is that most government initiatives involve ‘social distancing’ which specifies that people must keep a distance of [1 / 1.5 / 2 metres] from others. However, this does not consider the need to avoid the ‘airspace’ of potentially infected people in addition to the individuals themselves. This is a very important distinction which has not been recognized.  For example, suppose there is a lineup of 10 people at the [bank / grocery store / ice cream café / pharmacy etc].  Each person maintains the required distance from the person in front of them.  Person 2 and Person 5 are infected with the Coronavirus and are contagious.  As each individual finishes their transaction and leaves, the others in line move forward – directly into the ‘airspace’ of those who have stood there seconds or moments before. Given the aerosol transmission of the virus and the length of time it can remain in the air, chances are high that some people in the lineup, or who arrive after these people have left, will be exposed and infected with the virus.  This type of ‘social distancing’ in the absence of appropriate masks is ineffective.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-study/coronavirus-can-persist-in-air-for-hours-and-on-surfaces-for-days-study-idUSKBN2143QP
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 8:50pm

    #73

    davefairtex

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    public policy vs individual choice

    In my earlier "We have 2 Choices" post, I was referring to the two choices for our public policy.  Public Policy Choice #1: everyone hides until the vaccine appears.  Public Policy Choice #2: get back to work, and deal with the infections, only locking down when a hospital swamp threatens.

    If we as a nation were to select Public Policy Choice #2 (admit that, a large percentage of the population will eventually be infected, and that - economically - we cannot remain shut down as a nation for the next 18 months, waiting for a vaccine that might or might not ever actually work), in that event, individuals could still select Choice #1 and attempt to avoid infection themselves.

    They could remain at home most of the time, avoid social interactions as much as possible, wear protective gear when they go out, and generally distance themselves from society until such time as a vaccine (that actually works) becomes available.

    Can your lungs get damaged from a mild case?  Maybe so.  Is this worse than the flu?  Pretty clearly, yes.  Turns out, life has risk.  Shit happens all the time.   Cancer.  Heart disease.  Road accidents.  Crime.  And now, a pandemic.  Ok.  Mostly, life goes on.  Maybe with lung damage in some cases.  Maybe, if you get treated rapidly with HCQ, it doesn't.  Its hard to know.  Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.  Either way, life continues. Do your best to set the odds in your favor, and carry on.

    One thing we do know.  If we shut down the economy until the vaccine appears, the economy will be utterly destroyed.  It will be "great depression" territory after just 3 months.

    Now maybe, if your objective is to cause a great depression, this pandemic is a fantastic opportunity to do so.  "We are just trying to save lives here" (gosh aren't we good people?) while crushing the economy for reasons known only to you and your group.

    Who benefits from a depression?

    Well, if you know it is coming, you and your group can prepare.  Prices for a lot of assets will be super cheap.  Those with cash will be able to pick up these assets for very low prices.   Anything bought using debt will get defaulted on en masse, and will be foreclosed on by the banksters and then sold for fire sale prices.  Huge amounts of wealth will be transferred, from the workers who borrowed money to buy them, to the group that caused the depression who have accumulated cash, who are now able to pick up assets for pennies on the dollar.

    Maybe that's what is really going on here behind the scenes.   I don't know.

    But if we select Choice #1 as our Public Policy, we are selecting Great Depression as our economic outcome, with the vast wealth transfer it implies.  Most likely, it also will result in huge changes in public policy as well - socialism looks a whole lot more attractive if nobody has jobs.  And if small business is destroyed, the big corps win for sure.  Maybe that's deliberate too.  I don't know that either.

    Regardless of which Public Policy Choice is selected, individuals can make their own choice.  If they are relatively well off (or if they have prepared well), they personally can select Choice #1.  They can hide out, attempt to avoid infection, and wait for that vaccine, if and when it arrives, even if the Public Policy option #2 is selected.

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:10pm

    #74
    LabCat

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    Relativism

    Just as the world economy didn't skid to a halt just to save poor old Aunt Bea and Floyd the Barber in Mayberry, as some would have you believe,

    People are going to have to wrap their heads around the idea that legion ancillary deaths around the globe due to famine, are just as related to to the Wuhan Virus as if they had been Patient Zero themselves.

     

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 9:29pm

    Linda T

    Linda T

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    Re: JHK’s Line is an absolute

    robie,

    I don't recognize the “ remedievalization of modernity” as being one of JHK's expressions, but I could be wrong. He uses "Magical thinking", "greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world", "happy motoring", "sleepwalking into the future" (one of the chapter titles in "The Long Emergency"), and others I don't remember right now...

    I quickly searched to try and find some of JHK's  expressions, found this one "Suburbiais the insidious cartoon of the country house in a cartoon of the country." But I couldn't find the origin of the “ remedievalization of modernity".

    Did find https://www.azquotes.com/author/19114-James_Howard_Kunstler, which does have a bunch of his expressions.

    Collapse now and avoid the rush? That one is John Michael Greer's, and is also the title of one of his books, although I think Kunstler might have used it too since it's a good one.

    Linda

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  • Tue, Apr 21, 2020 - 11:33pm

    Grover

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    Need More Options

    davefairtex wrote:

    In my earlier “We have 2 Choices” post, I was referring to the two choices for our public policy.  Public Policy Choice #1: everyone hides until the vaccine appears.  Public Policy Choice #2: get back to work, and deal with the infections, only locking down when a hospital swamp threatens.

    If we as a nation were to select Public Policy Choice #2 (admit that, a large percentage of the population will eventually be infected, and that – economically – we cannot remain shut down as a nation for the next 18 months, waiting for a vaccine that might or might not ever actually work), in that event, individuals could still select Choice #1 and attempt to avoid infection themselves.

    Dave,

    The CFR and R0 really only have meaning in models, actuarial tables, and public policy. I'm sure we could break down the numbers based on age, gender, comorbitities, etc., but for the individual, it really boils down to -> how does this impact me? Am I going to get it? How bad is it going to be? What will life be like if/when I recover?

    The current public policy is to limit the infection rate so hospital ICUs don't get overwhelmed. Unless we can somehow reduce the number who will eventually get infected over time, flattening the curve only extends the time frame for the disease to rampage. Others on this thread have done the math and it could take decades for this to all play out. Can we tolerate this "shutdown" for decades? I doubt we could tolerate it for much more than a month longer.

    From an economic perspective, if you have a return on investment (ROI) of ~8%, every month of lost GDP takes a year to recover. I don't know what the actual number is, but we certainly aren't averaging 8% return across the economy. On average, our numbers are much more anemic. That means it takes more than a year to recover a month's loss. And, that's during the good times. If we have a recession, it takes much longer to recoup the losses. Depressions make it worse. Great depressions make it worser.

    Think about the rents and mortgages that aren't getting paid because the places of business are shut down and employee hours have plummeted. It doesn't matter if you first looked at this situation from a worker's perspective or that of the wealthy industrialist. It affects both. It also affects State/local governments that need to balance the books with taxes that aren't coming into the public coffers.

    How much can the federal government bail out? They already owe >$23trillion on the Treasury "credit card." Unfunded liabilities add multiples to that number. At what point do private investors just say that they think the US debt is too much? What happens then? I suppose the federal reserve can just buy up all the debt like Japan's BOJ mostly does. That would sure instill confidence in the dollar, wouldn't it?

    Sweden's approach has been castigated by several on this thread. Sweden is allowing people to gather/work and have been warning the most at risk about the risks. As expected, their per capita infection rate is much higher than ours. They are also getting the vaunted herd immunity much sooner. They look like idiots now, but what about in a month or two? They may be past the peak then with actual herd immunity. Unless there is a reinfection wave next year, they're pretty much free and clear.

    Meanwhile, the US may be in the topping process on new infections. That's great news; however, it is based on the unsustainable, draconian measures that have been instituted. Relax those measures and the infection rate will resume climbing.

    Will there be an effective vaccine for SC2? As far as I know, nobody has developed an effective vaccine for any coronavirus. It could happen, but I'm not hanging any hat on that hope. Without a vaccine to give immunity, the body has to build immunity through exposure.

    When I was a kid, I attended a measles party. There were about a dozen of us there and shortly afterwards, I developed measles. I remember being miserable, but it was over in a week or so. Now, I have full immunity to measles. Those who got the MMR vaccine have to get periodic boosters. Hmmm.

    We need more than your options 1 & 2. What I wish would happen is that some bright researcher tries to think outside the box. What would happen if we infected folks with the live virus (like the measles party,) let it run for a few days so the body could start developing antibodies, and then applied hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin + zinc to keep the virus from replicating/reproducing or causing more damage. We'd be able to develop individual immunity ... and adding enough individuals eventually makes a herd. Then, we got this licked (until it morphs.) We already have enough information about these drugs to know what bodily conditions to avoid. Test for those conditions and limit participants accordingly.

    Grover

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 6:37am

    davefairtex

    Status: Member

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

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    old-fashioned vaccine

    Grover-

    I like your old-fashioned vaccine concept.

    Now we just need to get:

    a) the authorities to get on board with HCQ + Azithromycin + Zinc

    b) people to realize that our current lockdown strategy must have a time limit, or the economic damage will lead to a vast great wealth transfer that most of us will end up on the losing end of.

    Note that if there really is a plot to cause a depression in order for "some" to benefit from the wealth transfer and/or to bring about a change in type of government, that would explain why the authorities aren't so eager to get on board with the aforementioned treatment.

    Of course it could also be a really bad, nationwide case of TDS.

    Regardless, I like the COVID party + treatment applied N days later,  where N gets determined experimentally.  It is an excellent third option.

    I've heard that the various ILIs aren't so impactful to us now because we have partial immunity already from past exposure.

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 8:05am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    0% infection of your department

    I would be more interested to know the results of the antibody tests to determine how many in your department were infected and didn't have any symptoms or require hospitalization.

    I'm assuming your co-workers are more fit than the average person and so would be able to weather any sort of health issue.

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 8:36am

    #79

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1043

    4+

    Martin Armstrong - Letter to the President - Closed Country is Fear-Mongering & Insane. Also covered - your beer is at risk

    70% of jobs are service sector jobs - closure is devastating for these people

    Think about it - deny work but still expect - rent, student loans, car payments, insurance etc = insane

     

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 8:51am

    #80
    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    Rumsfelds quote comes to mind in all this

    Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 9:01am

    km64

    km64

    Status: Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 88

    Student loans

    Well, some states are deferring collection on student loans.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2020/04/20/these-states-are-stopping-student-loan-debt-collection/#347746c07e33

    I have received email from the few credit cards I have, saying to contact them if I have a hard time paying due to covid19.

    My auto insurance company is issuing credits this month and next because of covid19.

    The IRS is allowing debt on back taxes to be put off until July 15th.

    There are still government resources for unemployment and food assistance.  I've not liked having to go on unemployment before, but that's a still a choice for many.

    And there is also the up to $1200 from the government that many are eligible for.

    Many companies are stepping up to help those in need.

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 9:17am

    #82

    AKGrannyWGrit

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 06 2011

    Posts: 1043

    Km64

    Rumsfeld quote made sense.

    I have a daughter that works in the service sector.  Right before the shut down a customer/client gave her a $100 tip, said “your going to need this”.  Many people have stepped up and helped those who are struggling.  It is heartwarming to see those who are supportive.

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 9:37am

    #83
    Hotrod

    Hotrod

    Status: Member

    Joined: Apr 20 2009

    Posts: 171

    2+

    Rumsfeld famous quote

    Rumsfeld also  famously said, "The weapons of mass destruction are located somewhere to the north, west, east, and south of Tikrit."  You can't make this stuff up.

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 11:05am

    Grover

    Grover

    Status: Gold Member

    Joined: Feb 15 2011

    Posts: 771

    2+

    It Shouldn't Be That Way

    davefairtex wrote:

    Now we just need to get:

    a) the authorities to get on board with HCQ + Azithromycin + Zinc

    b) people to realize that our current lockdown strategy must have a time limit, or the economic damage will lead to a vast great wealth transfer that most of us will end up on the losing end of.

    I've lost faith in government. I still think the concept of government is needed; however, to what extent? Then, there's the corruption of those who hold positions of power. Why wouldn't these people want a quick, cheap, easy solution to a problem? As you alluded, some groups stand to lose a lot of power, prestige, and/or money if the bad orange man gets his way. They couch every issue as a win/lose scenario. It shouldn't be that way.

    Your first post on this subject got me thinking about this issue. Maybe these subsequent posts will get some creative juices flowing. I wrote my post in hopes that one of the medical people here would see the idea as something worth pursuing. Hopefully, they can see the potential benefits and figure out a way to get around our big government overlords so they can get funding/approval.

    On a personal note, I'm sort of doing this on my own. I don't actively pursue getting infected. I just have my afternoon Covid cocktail of gin and tonic with roasted pumpkin seeds (zinc source.) The tonic water contains quinine (the naturally occurring active compound in HCQ) but at a non-therapeutic dose. My thoughts are that a) it won't hurt and b) it may be enough to keep a really low level infection at bay so my immune system can gear up and fight the virus.

    I also have a nebulizer and use it to vaporize my homemade 10 PPM colloidal/ionic silver solution. I breathe deeply about 1/2 teaspoon of vaporized solution when I get home after venturing out in the world. We know that ionic silver generally kills bacteria, viruses, and fungi in vitro (ie Petri dishes;) however, we don't know if it kills this specific virus or how it performs in vivo (in the body.) I don't expect big Pharma to ever investigate if this would take care of the problem. Why? There's no money in it for them. They're much more interested in their financial health than our physical health.

    I wish it weren't this way ... but it is.

    Grover

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 11:48am

    #85
    Mohammed Mast

    Mohammed Mast

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: May 17 2017

    Posts: 727

    Yogi Berra

    This statement from DFT above is the best statement he or anyone has said on this site ever. Its accuracy is indisputable. It is stunningly timeless. It is elegant in its simplicity.

    " Predictions are difficult, especially about the future. "

    My predictions about the past on the other hand are perfectly 100% correct

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 12:17pm

    #86

    Jim H

    Status: Bronze Member

    Joined: Jun 08 2009

    Posts: 1199

    2+

    Flattening the curve, hydroxychloroquine edition.

    The wonderful Dr. Ban Truong, DO, PhD,from CA,  today profiles the pastor of a church local to me in WA who had lost his 90 year old father to Covid-19 and was now (roughly 30 days ago) himself infected and facing an outbreak in his congregation.  He must have found Dr. Truong the same way I did several weeks ago - by searching through Youtube videos addressing the topic of hydroxychloroquine.

    Here are the important take away's from this conversation;

    1)  Early intervention with the HCQ regimen (+ Zithro + Zinc) works

    2)  In this case Dr. Ban treated sick people AND later caregivers of sick people who themselves came down with symptoms.. and from the discussion it appears that this aggressive treatment along with smart quarantines shut down the spread.  The meds help in this regard because as per Dr. Didier Raoult and others the period of viral shedding is significantly reduced by the meds.

    This is a microcosm of how we might manage this in the future when little clusters break out... We just need to break through all of the Deep State fog that is effecting even doctors at this point.  That a desperate group in WA had to find a doctor in CA who was willing to help save them is a disgrace.. and always Dr. Ban has to call multiple pharmacies to get his prescriptions filled.

    Note that Dr. Ban has many other videos profiling cases where he has helped turn around folks illness using these medications.. he is building up his own little case study.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVOPDrdHBAk

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  • Wed, Apr 22, 2020 - 1:59pm

    gail parker

    gail parker

    Status: Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2020

    Posts: 1

    well said until the last paragraph

    Dear Jan, I had the honor to twice meet Dr. Linus Pauling, the only person to win the Nobel twice.  He spoke science and he spoke the science of peace but not usually at the same time.  The obvious human tragedy does not need to be added to every discussion.  imho

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 12:11am

    #88
    nordicjack

    nordicjack

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 03 2020

    Posts: 690

    By the numbers

    I was speaking about NY state closing in on a 1:1000 death rate.  That is not a case fatality rate ( CFR ) but the over-all death rate or mortality rate of the entire population.

    We have some people still suggesting that this is maybe only as deadly as the flu ( .138%)  or just over 1/10th  of 1%.    Which is makes no sense if you can do some simple math.   The authorities stating low death rates say that large amounts of the population is already infected or has been previously.    However, looking at NY alone, we find that its population mortality rate for this illness is already (in 3 weeks ) equal to the case fatality rate of flu.   That means to have the flu kill the people already dead, the entire population ( 100%)  of NY would have to already been infected.   flu deaths = ( 1:1000) of infected.   Covid deaths = (1:1000 ) total NY population.

    If we assume that 15% of the population gets the flu in a given year, and the same many people get covid in 1 month, Covid would have a death rate 6 times of flu.   We are assuming that 15% of NY has had  Covid already to attain this CFR.   However if only 4% has been infected already we would have a death rate 23 times the flu.  and if only 2% are infected , the CFR would be close to 50 times that of the flu.  NY has a 250,000 confirmed cases.   This is 1/8o th of their population.  or just a bit more than 1% of the population.  Using the confirmed cases we end up with a CFR of 100 times the flu.      So, Covid CFR is somewhere between 6-100 times the flu.     My guess it is neither.   We cannot infer anything about uncounted cases, also we cannot infer anything about uncounted deaths.   I think a conservative estimate would be this has a 20-50 times greater CFR than the flu.. AND less conservative would be 50-80 times.   There are a lot unknowns,  But it is very unlikely this will have a CFR above 10% and just as unlikely that we will see a CFR of less than 2%.     But what is certain, is this is not 1-2 times as deadly as the flu.  And its not even close to the estimate authorities are throwing around of .006.

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 1:01am

    #89
    jmone

    jmone

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Feb 28 2020

    Posts: 224

    jmone said:

    Globally, the flu kills between 291,00 and 646,000 per year or on average 5,600 to 12,500 per week.  Last week COVID-19 killed 50,000 and it is just getting started in many parts of the world.

    APRIL 23, 2020 / 5:26 PM BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is still at the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic and will have to live with it for a long time, Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Thursday.

    “We are not living in the final phase of the pandemic, but still at the beginning,” she told the Bundestag lower house of parliament.

    “We have won time,” Merkel said, adding that this had been used well to bolster Germany’s healthcare system.

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  • Thu, Apr 23, 2020 - 8:26am

    Quercus bicolor

    Status: Silver Member

    Joined: Mar 19 2008

    Posts: 400

    New York City

    New York City has about 43.5% of the state's population, and about 75% of the deaths.  To estimate the city's death rate, let's try 75/43.5 * 1037 deaths per thousand = 1788 deaths per thousand or 0.18%.  So the death rate is at least that.  New cases are trending down a bit the past week or two.  Several factors in combination account for this:

    1. social distancing - the practices of 1-3 weeks ago impact today's new cases.
    2. approaching herd immunity.  As herd immunity is approached new cases decrease since many contacts of existing cases are already infected or immune.  This has some impact once the disease has infected perhaps 25-30% of the population and a significant impact at about 50%.
    3. reduced testing - testing rates have declined, but not as much as new cases.

    Social distancing really ramped up a few weeks ago, so I would guess that most of the impact is from #1 with a bit from #3.  That leaves not much from #2.  My best guess: we're at under 25% infected and were probably under 20% 10 days ago (to account for lag in deaths), so CFR for NYC is at least 0.9%.

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