PM Daily Market Commentary - 4/25/2016

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Mon, Apr 25, 2016 - 11:24pm

Gold rose +5.70 to 1239.40 on moderately light volume, while silver climbed +0.02 to 17.05 on very light volume.  Both metals traded in a relatively narrow range, helped somewhat by a declining dollar.

Not much happened today; gold managed to squeak back over its 50 MA by less than a dollar, but the low volume spinning top candle doesn't give us any clues as to direction.  Last Friday's candle pattern is likely to be a near-term high.

We have an FOMC meeting starting tomorrow (oh joy) and ending Wednesday with the usual announcement at 14:00 Eastern which will probably move the markets.  As usual.

Not much changed in silver either; it too printed a spinning top (indecision) candle, on very low volume.  The high volume almost-doji from two days ago still looms large for me.  Silver remains overbought and to my mind, vulnerable to a correction.

Miners fell today, with GDX off -0.58% on very light volume, while GDXJ fell -1.01% on moderate volume.  This is a modest warning sign - GDX actually fell on a day when gold rose.  The drop was not large, volume was light, and GDX remains above its 9 EMA, but it does look a bit bearish to me.

Platinum climbed +0.67%, palladium rose +0.03%, while copper was down -0.64%.  News out of China suggests that there has been a large inflow of speculative money into commodities.  Perhaps this has been one reason the copper market has rallied so nicely in recent weeks.

The buck sold off a bit, down -0.28 to 94.80.  The buck remains above its 9 EMA, but it really needs to move above its previous high at 95.21 to cement the short term uptrend.  Perhaps the FOMC announcement on Wednesday will help the buck to more emphatically pick a direction.

WTIC fell -0.76 to 42.99.  Crude found support on its 9 EMA, but did print a swing high today.  Momentum for crude is falling (we can see a bearish divergence on the RSI-7) and it is possible that we may have marked a peak for oil at 44.45.  We'll know more tomorrow - based on how the market reacts to the API inventory report at 16:30 Eastern.  Oil equities (XLE) fell -1.12%, but printed a bearish harami (-54%) which looks somewhat ominous.

SPX fell today, dropping -3.79 to 2087.79, led lower by energy and industrials.  Still, the market had dropped more substantially, at one point touching 2077, but managed to rally back by end of day, greatly reducing the loss.  The sentiment indicator I track is now signaling a likely near-term top for SPX; I believe risk of a decline is high right now for US equities.  My emotions are telling me that a decline feels impossible; emotions are generally contrary indicators.  Maybe its time to buy some puts.  VIX rose +0.86 to 14.08.

TLT continued its decline, losing -0.41%.  The long bond looks ill right now, unable to rally even with the modest weakening in the equity market.

JNK dropped -0.34%, moving slowly lower but remaining above all three moving averages.  JNK is hinting at risk off, but it remains in an uptrend, at least for now.

CRB fell -0.44%, affected by the drop in crude oil.  CRB remains above the 9 and 50 MA lines, but will probably top out if oil tops out too.

Market is probably waiting for the FOMC announcement before it picks a direction - for the buck, for PM, and possibly also for equities.  Its an old, boring story, but that's where we are in today's markets: FOMC drives direction by adding or subtracting a word from their announcement.  If the dollar strengthens after FOMC, PM could sell off quite hard.  Also, if oil really has topped out (and the only way we can really judge is how it responds to the inventory reports) then a more general correction would seem to be at hand.

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4 Comments

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5072
the upcoming COMEX default

Ahhhh, I'm always happy when I read a prediction of the imminent COMEX default.  It just never gets old.  And remember, even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

And this is just one guy.  And only the first page of the google search: "bill holter COMEX default."

http://usawatchdog.com/comex-default-is-coming-soon-bill-holter/

It could be two days, two weeks or two months.  It could blow before the market opens on Monday morning.  You tell me when someone steps up to buy twice as much silver than COMEX can deliver, and that’s it.  It is done.  This is a seminal moment for the entire Western financial system. . . . It could be any day.  The default is coming.”

And this one on 7/19/2013:

https://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/bill-holter-we-are-facing-a-major-default-in-both-the-gold-and-silver-markets-on-comex/

... I will again state what I wrote back in April.  We are facing a major default in both the gold and silver markets on COMEX, which has a whopping 29 tons of registered gold inventory available for delivery.  I also believe we will see the LBMA in the same boat though they do not publish inventory numbers.

And this one on 11/24/2014:

http://blog.milesfranklin.com/is-comex-being-cornered

I have never written “this is my most important writing ever!” but that day has now come.  So many events have all aligned at once which point to something very bad happening, very soon...

This coming Friday is the 1st notice day for both Dec. COMEX gold and silver contracts.  COMEX in my opinion has a potentially huge problem where a default in both contracts is a distinct possibility! 

 

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 653
Then, PLEASE, refute the information

and not just lay out the "quotations."  He makes a lot of statements WHY this MIGHT happen.

He talks about ounces and how many there are and where.  Do his figures make any sense?  The SUPPRESSION has been exposed and criminal charges MAY be forthcoming. Is this NOT true?

Will the US banks be also named?  Might all this info by Bill explain Christ's 2 a.m. hypothesis?

Dave.  I do appreciate all your constant work for all of us here at PP.com but now and then I wonder about your objectivity.

So, I'd appreciate some answers to my questions, and not just slamming Bill, and indirectly Jim Sinclair. I  know he sells gold and has a vested interest AND they are partners, so maybe . . . .

Thanks,  Ken P.

Edwardelinski's picture
Edwardelinski
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 23 2012
Posts: 309
Consider this:

A bearish article attracts at least 5 times as many readers as a bullish article.People like to read about end of days.It's a brilliant business concept.Bearish articles collect the highest number of hits,Sell advertising-collect revenues,You will get answers soon enough.Sounds like a ginned-up piece to me.Just sayin.....

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5072
if at first you don't succeed...

So I would encourage you to read all of his previous predictions.  See what they say.  Does the new prediction say something materially different than all the previous predictions?

I'd give quite a bit to see a chart detailing the uptick in their gold sales whenever such an article is released.  I bet its substantial - or they wouldn't do it so often.

In a perfect world, one might expect that repeated, explicit, failed prognostications might eventually end up undermining the credibility of the prognosticator.  Me, I'd blanch with horror if something I predicted so confidently didn't come to pass.  But that's because I try to be very careful about what I predict.

I have never written “this is my most important writing ever!” but that day has now come.

We saw his "most important writing ever" back in 2014.  And nothing happened.  Why should I believe this guy's prediction ability when the last most-important-ever pronouncement served up a big nothing-burger?

Absent a general failure of the financial system, it is my belief that the COMEX won't fail.  If bankers control the prices via COMEX, as described by the goldbugs, then it is absolutely not in the interest of the bankers to let it fail.  And given those bankers can withdraw the gold inside GLD anytime they want - can you describe a situation where they were not able to simply deliver gold out of GLD to the folks at COMEX?

This just seems like simple logic to me.  If COMEX really is the magic lever, they can't afford to let it fail, and assuming there is gold inside GLD, and silver inside SLV - it won't fail until that situation changes.

Once again, the proven DB gold manipulation is a tactical, intraday manipulation, not a general suppression of the gold price over months and years.

Sigh.

A <blank> and his <blank> are soon <blank>

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