PM Daily Market Commentary - 12/30/2015

By davefairtex on Thu, Dec 31, 2015 - 4:13am

Gold fell -8.10 to 1060.40 on moderate volume, while silver fell -0.06 to 13.88 on moderate volume too.  A modestly stronger dollar and weak commodity prices helped PM to move lower.

Gold's drift lower accelerated today, with gold prices falling off a small cliff a bit after 8:15 Eastern, a drop from which it never recovered.  At this point, I hope that gold manages to find support down at its previous low of 1046.80.  You can see the descending triangle forming for gold - any rebound needs to close above that downtrend line to put a stop to the downside momentum.  The odds favor a test of the lows.

Silver initially suffered a bit more selling than gold, but it then found some buyers at 13.75, and rallied modestly into the close.  Silver did not quite print a doji candle today, but it was nice to see that there were some buyers at COMEX showing up once prices had fallen far enough.  I'm not sure this marks a low, but it is a mildly positive sign.

GDX fell -2.08% on moderately light volume, while GDXJ dropped -2.44% on moderately light volume also.  GDX broke down out of its wedge formation, and now appears headed for a test of the lower uptrend line.  GDX didn't do all that badly today - it mostly just gapped down at the open on the drop in gold, but encountered no real selling intraday.  If gold breaks support, miners probably will too, but if not, miners should do all right.  They still seem to have a bid.

The buck rose +0.13 to 98.31, moving back above its 9 EMA; the dollar looks like it is trying to reverse trend here but it is slow going.  My computer is long the buck right now, FWIW.  Of course if the dollar starts to really take off, it will weaken gold even more.

SPX sold off today, dropping -15.00 to 2063.36, falling below its 50 MA.  A fair amount of the loss came in the last hour of trading, and the market closed at the dead lows of the day, which isn't usually a good sign.   I don't think that SPX is so clear on direction right now.  VIX climbed +1.21 to 17.29.

JNK rallied +0.03%, mostly unchanged on the day.  It remains in its ascending triangle, above its 9 EMA and looking mildly bullish.

Bond ETF TLT actually fell today, dropping -0.10% - a surprise given the fall in equities.  While today's move wasn't big, bonds are not looking very healthy right now.  Yesterday's big breakdown looks pretty ugly to me.

CRB dropped -1.38%, a fairly large move that took CRB below its 9 EMA.  While CRB isn't back to a downtrend just yet, it definitely is struggling.

WTIC fell -0.50 to 36.83.  The low in oil came immediately after the Petroleum Status report revealed a build in inventories, as predicted by yesterday's API report.  However, it appears that the market more or less anticipated the bad news, as oil ended up rallying modestly after the report was released.  This confuses people sometimes: "hey, how come oil didn't sell off on bearish news?  That's manipulation!"   Well if the market expects the bearish news, sometimes it ends up rallying if (lets say) the news isn't quite as bad as it could have been.  Happens relatively often, actually.

US Natural gas ($NATGAS) took a rest today, dropping -0.05 [-2.03%] but finding support on its 50 MA.  It may well just keep moving higher; my computer remains long natgas, although it is more tentative about it than it was before.  Momentum appears to be slowing.

Gold and silver continue to look weak.  I'm hoping gold can avoid breaking to new lows before the new year, although as they say, hope isn't a strategy.  Perhaps January will provide some relief when the traders return from vacation and the tax loss selling season is over.  Computer is still short gold & silver; I'll let you know when that changes.  Right now, the charts seem to suggest lower prices ahead for PM.

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Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2010
Posts: 3936
Tophats. From a Different Angle.

The lady Karen Hudes was working at the World Bank. Copy and paste the link to youtube for the blurb. I cannot lift it.


Edit: Obviously I did a bit of background checks and H. Capensis checks out. Brain 30% bigger than ours.

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2010
Posts: 3936
From two years ago.

Not content peer into the rabbit hole I  jumped right in.

This is from two years ago. Now,  either she is an excellent con-artist or she is the heroine that we looking for. My bead of belief that she is the genuine article is hovering at 98%. I leave 2% out there that someone could possibly create a such a personhood, but if she has pulled that off in an internet age,  she still gets my respect. 

Pro tip : Don't challenge her to a fencing match if you value your manhood. 


She has a channel on youtube. Bless you youtube.

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