PM Daily Market Commentary - 12/22/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Wed, Dec 23, 2015 - 2:24am

Gold fell -5.90 to 1071.80 on light volume, while silver rose +0.01 to 14.25 on moderate volume.  Gold fell, and silver lost its gains right around 08:30, the time of the 3Q GDP report which showed a revised 2.0% annualized growth rate.

Even though the dollar fell today, gold looked weak and was unable to rally.  Still, gold remains above its 9 EMA; if gold can remain above this moving average, we will eventually see a breakout above the previous high at 1088.30 which would confirm the double bottom.  The light volume today suggests that a good chunk of the market is already on vacation right now.  Perhaps those were the buyers, who can say.

Silver rallied intraday, hitting 14.40 just before that 08:30 GDP release; after that report was released, silver immediately sold off, declining for the rest of the day, printing an unfortunate-looking almost-gravestone doji which marks the failed rally.  Still, like gold, silver remains above its 9 EMA, which is a positive sign.  A close above 14.64 is the next step in silver's recovery process.

GDX fell -0.58 on light volume, while GDXJ fell -0.36% on light volume also.  Senior miners were unable to break the downtrend line today, and today's decline took the miners below its 9 EMA, which is bearish.  GDX really needs to break that downtrend line.  Holiday trading volume remains light.

The buck continued to fall today, losing -0.22 to 98.24.  The buck has now unwound all the gains post-FOMC.  A drop below the 50 MA, which is not far at 97.98, will signal a more serious decline for the dollar may be under way.

SPX rallied again today, climbing +17.82 and closing just above its 9 EMA.  SPX remains well below its previous low of about 2080, but the expectation is for the usual December front-running of the annual January 1st dump of new pension & 401k money generally encourages the market to move higher around now.  That is likely to provide a boost to equities, absent something truly unpleasant.  VIX fell -2.10 to 16.60.

JNK confirms the risk-on feeling, rising +0.86%, a big move for junky debt.

Bond ETF TLT fell -0.72%; bonds are starting to feel pressure probably because of rising equity prices.

CRB dropped -0.27%.  I guess a two-day commodity rally is all we can expect these days.

WTIC rose +0.69 to 36.47 today; depending on how you chart things, that marks a swing low for crude.  Brent wasn't so fortunate, closing up +0.12 to 36.36, the first time I've seen Brent below WTIC in a couple of years.  Crude got a boost at 16:30 by an API report that showed oil inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels this week.  Hopefully the Petroleum Status report tomorrow at 10:30 will agree, and this will mark at least a short term low for crude.  Next step for crude is a crossing of the 9 EMA at 36.55, which is not so very far away.

US Natural gas ($NATGAS) fell -0.02 [-1.24%]; after yesterday's massive rally, some selling is expected.

Its holiday season, which makes for lighter-than-normal volume and (usually) less price volatility.  That's partially why the VIX dropped so dramatically today.  Nobody buys crash insurance when most of the traders are on holiday.

I believe PM will probably also follow this path, with not much happening until we are closer to New Years.

Probably.

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1 Comment

Arthur Robey's picture
Arthur Robey
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2010
Posts: 3936
Got a Quarter Million Spare?

Egon von Greyerz who stores  gold for rich people. (Starts at $1/4 Mill )  says that his clients are not too  fussed about gold. There is just too much easy money to be made on the stock market and they have got lazy. 

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