Physical Gold and Silver end of the week commentary

Jim H
By Jim H on Sat, Oct 24, 2015 - 11:58am

Excellent commentary by Dave Kranzler on Friday's Gold price attack;

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/fridays-gold-smash-reeks-of-centra...

Friday’s Gold Smash Reeks Of Central Bank Corruption

It’s no secret that the banking cabal has been going to great lengths to prevent gold from breaking out above its 200 day moving average.   Why?  Because it is likely that if this were to occur, it would “flip” the hedge fund black box algorithms from selling rallies and shorting downside momentum to buying gold sell-offs and chasing upside momentum higher.  In other words, it would make the task of keeping a lid on the price of gold much more difficult.

The effort to keep gold from legitimate price-discovery is understandable – from the elitist banking cabal perspective, at least:   if the price of gold were allowed to trade freely, it would likely find a market-setting price at least 3-5 multiples above where it is right now.   If this occurred, it would completely undermine the Fed’s QE and ZIRP monetary policy.  It would also cripple the Fed’s ability to keep the stock market juiced wreck the carefully crafted illusion that everything is fine in the U.S. economic and financial system.

Today’s gold smack was one of the more blatant displays of the unfettered corruption that has engulfed the paper gold market:

Untitled1

When I woke up this morning, gold had jumped $13 from its previous day’s close, as both China and the ECB indicated that they would be printing more money to prevent their respective banking systems from collapsing. Out of nowhere, about an hour before the London p.m. fix, the price of gold suddenly “fell” off a cliff.  Initially, 2,692 contracts (7.8 tonnes of paper gold) hit the Comex (Comex floor + the computerized trading system) at 8:58 a.m. EST. From 9:00-9:30, another 21,855 paper bombs were dropped (approximately 63 tonnes) hit the Comex; from 9:30 – 10 a.m. EST 25,914 contracts were launched (75 tonnes). To put this in perspective, the minute before 8:58 a.m. 302 contracts traded. In the 30 minutes following the attack, 8,583 contracts traded.

The p.m. London p.m. gold price fix, which “officially” is set at 10:00 a.m. EST, involved unusually large volume and an unusually large 9 iterations in order to set the price.  The price was “fixed” at $1,161.25, which was $18 below the $1,179.30 high price gold had hit shortly after the ECB announced more QE.

In total over 5 million ounces worth of paper gold traded during the smash. As of today, the Comex vault operators are reporting only 202.3k ounces of gold to be available for delivery.  With no relevant news or events reported, it can only be concluded that the price drop in gold was an attack on the price by entities intent on preventing gold from the process of legitimate price-discovery.  Perhaps worse is the fact that Governmental agencies put in place and funded by the Taxpayers to prevent market corruption are either indifferent to or complicit with the market intervention.

 

24 Comments

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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Ratio of paper to physical

This article is one attempt to capture the total paper:physical leverage going on.. i.e. how much physical Gold changes hands vs. how much paper of all sorts.. the punch line is that the ratio is found to be 309:1;

http://goldsilverworlds.com/physical-market/how-much-paper-gold-is-being...

The two charts in this article are definitely eye openers.

It is widely known that derivatives are governing today’s markets. The total notional value of derivatives is estimated to be around $700 trillions. As a comparison, the U.S. economy (GDP) is around $17 trillion, while the economy of all countries worldwide (global GDP) is around $65 trillion. So all derivatives worldwide are ten times bigger than the world economy.

The gold market is also dominated by derivatives, or, in our own words, ‘paper gold’. But what is the dollar value of the ‘paper gold’ market? Here is an estimate.

According to the first chart below, courtesy of the king of gold charts Nick Laird (Sharelynx), the notional value of daily paper gold trading is around $125.3 billion per day, given a dollar gold price of $1200 /oz. That calculcation is based on the equivalent of 3248 tonnes of paper gold being traded daily. Annualized, we get the ballpark figure of $30 trillion.

Compare that with the value of physical gold in the world, which equals 170 tonnes. Given a dollar gold price of $1200 /oz, all physical (above-the-ground) gold in the world has a value of $6.5 trillion.

Global_Gold_Derivatives_oct2015

.........continued at the link

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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heh

If those central bankers were sparing no expense to keep gold from breaking the 200 MA, they've done a piss-poor job of it.  It already happened!

 

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Strawman Fallacy in Gold Suppression Discussions

One of the arguments I have seen used is--

If TPTB really were trying to suppress the price of gold then it could not have risen.  And since the price rose, this shows that TPTB were NOT trying to suppress the price of gold.

This sounds like a straw man fallacy.

A partially effective suppression effort could certainly be happening.

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davefairtex
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strawman suppression

SP-

Certainly you are correct, IF that was the argument being employed.

However when the only evidence presented is one chart, provided in isolation - no chart of copper at that same time, which looks even worse - its all major victim-hood mixed with anger and the standard "if not for infinite money from central banking gold would be $50,000".  No admission that deflation has any potential impact on gold.  No admission that gold actually trades like a commodity a lot of the time.

Yeah, that's the argument that I find non-compelling.  But that's the argument that the faithful eat up, and that's the argument the goldbug writers employ to maintain their credibility throughout the long downturn.

The funny thing is, Jim Sinclair had his famous Five Pillars that purported (during the uptrend) to support the price of Gold, and after five years of deflation, only one pillar remains.  The High Priest of the Goldbugs himself has given the reason for the downtrend, but nobody wants to listen, because nobody wants to admit the possibility that everything has a price cycle, even gold, and that just maybe, gold is tied to the general commodity price cycle too!

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/86694361551443394/

  1. Recognized top in US Dollar
  2. Trust in US Paper Assets Declining
  3. Bullish General Commodity Markets
  4. Triple Deficits: US Budget, Current Accounts, Trade firmly in place
  5. Recognized top in US Treasury Long Bond

#1: USD is strong in a worldwide debt unwind, making it stronger, not weaker.   FAIL

#2: US is clearly still the safe haven.  FAIL

#3: Deflation has caused commodity markets to drop for 4 years running.  FAIL

#4: US deficits: SUCCESS

5: US treasury bond - judged by price - still a safe haven.  FAIL.

Clearly price suppression happens.  Not that often, but it happens.  Its not an every day affair.  Its more like a once a year affair.  And it doesn't always work - last time just served to mark the low, after which gold has now launched.  To my mind, Jim Sinclair's "Only One Golden Pillar Remaining" is the primary reason for gold's decline.

And I think when the pillars come back, so will the price of gold.

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sand_puppy
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I do admit

...that I am learning a lot from you, DaveF.

I definitely see the strengthening of the dollar, changing foreign exchange rates and collapsing foreign currencies and how this affects money flows into US bonds and adversely affects the price of gold.

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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sorry SP

I got distracted from your original point.  :-)

If TPTB really were trying to suppress the price of gold then it could not have risen.  And since the price rose, this shows that TPTB were NOT trying to suppress the price of gold.

The argument goes as follows.

  1. central banks do not like gold, and have never liked gold
  2. central bankers have the absolute power to suppress the gold price; they can set it to be anything they want, any time they want.
  3. central bankers use this power frequently, on a weekly if not daily basis.  evidence used: every downtick in the price of gold - even just intraday - is always laid at the feet of the central banker suppression scheme.

If all these items are true, then gold could simply could not have risen from 2001-2011.

Suppositions don't fit the price evidence.  Gold never would have moved above $250 if their hatred for gold was unchanging, if they had infinite power, and if they were willing to use it on a daily/weekly basis.

That's just logic.

So there is some flaw in there somewhere.  Perhaps you can tell me what it is.

I believe they don't like gold, but their power is limited, so they intervene occasionally when the market is perceived as being vulnerable; sometimes the intervention works, and sometimes it doesn't.

But the problem with that logic - which actually matches up pretty well with the evidence - is that every downtick in the price of gold can no longer be laid at the feet of central bankers.

And we can't have that.

Another (related, possibly important) issue: why on earth do I seem to care about this argument?  People are wrong on the Internet every single day of the week, after all.

Its because I fell for it.  And it cost me a bunch of money.  And I'm still annoyed at them, and at myself for falling for such a simple trick.  "If price goes up, that's virtue and if price goes down, it's manipulation."  Heads I win, tails you lose.  That one goes back to grade school.

And I fell for it.  Until I dug around, uncovered the evidence myself, read some more unbiased sources, and arrived at (something I believe) is closer to the truth.  Which, again, would have saved me money had I known it, or had the goldbug writers been more honest about the situation.

So there's that, too.  :-)

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Straw man

The creation of a "straw man" fallacy involves exaggerating or twisting an argument to make it false (and its author appear stupid). 

The argument goes as follows.

  1. central banks do not like gold, and have never liked gold
  2. central bankers have the absolute power to suppress the gold price; they can set it to be anything they want, any time they want.
  3. central bankers use this power frequently, on a weekly if not daily basis.  evidence used: every downtick in the price of gold - even just intraday - is always laid at the feet of the central banker suppression scheme.

I'm on my way to work and have just a moment but a couple of responses come to mind:

1.  Central banks have not always attended to the price of gold.  Failure to keep the price of gold down is a mistake that Greenspan regrets (and implies he will not make in the future).  (GATA archives, Chris has mentioned it here).

2.  Central banks are the tip of the iceberg of the financial / political oligarchy.  The have a plethora of options:

  • drone attacks, assassinations of political opponents
  • invasions by overt and covert forces (Economic Hitman, War is a Racquet)
  • public relations campaigns through trusted news sources
  • passing laws, capital controls, revoking licenses to do business, etc. (TIPP etc)
  • surveillance and torture to induce a low grade fear of being perceived as a dissident.

The oligarchy has a great deal of power to bring to any issue it deems important.  And we are just learning about the extent of its power.  One example I just found yesterday:

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exaggeration

SP-

Just because its sounds ridiculous or exaggerated does NOT mean it's a straw man.

I invite you to identify the parts of my characterization of the goldbug belief system that are not true - that specifically, are exaggerations.  I have heard each thing I wrote stated as absolute truth right here on this website.

Is it central bank power?  Many, many times I've read goldbugs say that the central bank has the power to set the price of gold to whatever they want it to be, whenever they want to do it.  Surely you recall reading this too?

Is it the eternal central bank hatred of gold?  How many statements have I read where goldbugs state categorically that the fell enemy of central banking is gold - always has been, and always will be.  Gold is the anti-dollar, gold is the signaling mechanism, there is no doubt that central banks must always and everywhere suppress gold if the dollar is to survive, and so on.  This is not exaggeration on my part.  Surely you've read this as well, right?

As for every downtick being laid at the feet of central banking - we had an $80 run up followed by a $13 correction and the goldbugs once again start to complain about manipulation.   Surely you recall goldbugs saying in the past that, since gold should rightfully be trading at $5000/oz, that any move down in the gold price was only possible because of central bank manipulation?  I remember reading this.  Perhaps you didn't see that particular statement.  It certainly stuck in my memory.

So....again...can you point to which part of the belief system I exaggerated?  Again, this is goldbug belief system I'm quoting, not fact.  If it sounds a bit ridiculous and/or extreme - well, again, that's just what I've read, right here at PP.  That doesn't make it a straw man.

  1. central banks have the power to set gold price to whatever they want, whenever they want
  2. central banks have an eternal and undying hatred for gold; this causes them to suppress gold whenever possible.
  3. since gold should be trading at $5000, every downtick in the price of gold is prima facie evidence of manipulation.  (And that $13 downtick on Friday definitely qualifies).

I invite all the goldbugs to correct me - to state their belief system as to central bank power w.r.t. gold price, central bank intent regarding gold, and where gold would be trading right this moment if not for the constant daily/weekly/monthly central bank suppression scheme.

Again, I believe that central bank power is limited, their dislike of gold is real and causes them to act opportunistically, but there is no weekly suppression campaign, and their ability to effect real change in the gold price is limited to particular times and places where the market is in a vulnerable state.  And even then, there is no guarantee of success, as shown by the failed intervention of July 2015.  If anything, it established a new low that caused gold to launch into a nice rebound rally which we are currently enjoying today.

It sucks when your interventions fail, doesn't it?  But it also calls into question the whole "central banks have infinite power" theme also.  Hmm....

Jim H's picture
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You doth protest too much DaveF

That's what I think. 

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Example of a coordinated media campaign

Sand_Puppy,

Nothing to do with gold but here is an example of a coordinated media campaign...and my magazine was one of those targeted.

Early this year I was part of a group that was trying to bring back what we thought were "good stories" to the science fiction and fantasy genre. We felt that all of the somewhat boring message fiction about victims of gender and racial inequality, the evils of colonialism and capitalism. and other "causes du jour" were dragging down the Hugo awards ceremonies, so we tried to get some things we liked nominated. Very successfully, I might add. The campaign was called "Sad Puppies 3"  (SP3) since it was expanded from two previous, similar but more limited efforts. The guy who ran SP1 & SP2 was a rather conservative Portuguese-American but in SP3 we had women, minorities, and politics of all sorts, even non-traditional sexuality. And we did everything in the open,, legally. But two days after the nominations came out, here is what they hit us with:

Articles that quoted the same "talking points" in Salon, Daily Dot, Comics Alliance, Reddit, Entertainment Weekly, The London Telegraph, Huffington Post, The AV Club (no joke: serious culture news from The Onion) , Slash Dot, io9, The Guardian, Stuff.com (NZ), followed by too many blog posts to count. All of them basically said that the SP3 slate was exclusively white, straight, and male (not true). Most of them said that last year's Hugo awards was a big win for diversity (last year's winners were all white and one Asian). EW had to retract, big time, when they let a junior staffer post their Anti-Puppies article as "news" with no weasel words, but the rest were patent lies untouchable even by lawsuits. We were called misogynists, racists, homophobes, and at one point even neo-Nazis although that last got someone at the DIRECTOR level at a traditional publisher in trouble with their parent company and caused a grudging apology and a new social media policy for the company in question. Otherwise, the lies were believed and swallowed whole.

Our magazine was up for Best Semiprozine via SP3. Um, last I checked I was not a white male misogynist homophobic racist. My mostly-female staff, including my black best friend and 2nd in command, were equally bemused. But we were not in an important category. Those who were up for best novel and best short story, novella, novelette, and best editor (long form or short form) endured the most astounding character assassinations.

Later there were follow-up articles in The Atlantic and two follow-ups in WIRED, one of which I was interviewed for (very warily). Not that I was quoted: I did not fit the narrative. They trounced us at the awards by somehow coming up with 2500 votes for No Award in all categories we were in. I have no idea if those were people who believed the lies. but the other side was giving away free voting memberships.

If they will fight this dirty where only a genre book award is at stake, what will they do about things like the price of gold?

But there is a silver (hey, it's a precious metal too!) lining. They no longer intimidate us. Sure, a few weak sisters jumped ship over the "controversy" (and were lavishly rewarded) but the gatekeepers at the traditional publishers are seriously losing their grip on SF &F publishing due to independent small publishers and self publishing. Just like the music industry, writers are making an end run around TPTB.

Just like those who manipulate the gold and silver markets cannot reign forever. Reality eventually catches up and bites hard, and then I believe that those who have actual works (or bullion) to sell will have the upper hand.

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Coordinated Media Campaigns

That is an amazing story, Wendy.

So many questions come up when we hear about this kind of thing.  Who is behind it?  Who decides what stories will be fed to the masses?  Who strategies and develops the talking points and approach to be used?  How is the message distributed?  How do we get many seemingly separate magazines and editors to decide to say the same things at about the same time?

Remember the clip of Connan O'Brian posted here on pp about his first on-the-air gay marriage and the montage of TV news stations who reported he was "pushing the envelope?"

Or, during the Iraq war, when several hundred "retired generals" were invited to local TV stations to discuss the US efforts to "stabilize Iraq?" The appearance was of a local station and an individual sharing his personal thoughts.  But it turned out each of the generals was secretly on the pentagon payroll and were FAXed the talking points from the pentagon PR department each morning.  No wonder all of these separate retired generals all seemed to think so similarly.

One relative of mine in the TV news business at a small town station advises that most stories are purchased from wire services.  The stories are mostly read verbatim and videos shown without modification.

So the wire services seem to be the distribution and censoring point for whether an issue of local interest is distributed nationally or internationally and where a particular story can be distributed widely without local modification.

Terry Hansen documents the way that UFO stories circulate and do not circulate.  The wire service seems to be the choke point.

 

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Ad hominem attacks

Just out of wondering...  I've noticed a couple severe attacks coming our way:

   * IRS denying our four kids' exemptions, contrary to law (but in their argument, not contrary to practices they can get away with, and now prefer to use) 
   * Child Protective Services about roaches in our trailer

There have been a number of other events, equally expensive and distracting, that also have hit at the same time.  Could it be a coincidence?  Absolutely.  But still, my brain starts churning when I see some of the other stuff here, such as that by Wendy Delmater. 

Just out of wondering, are any others on this site coming under heavy fire?  Could that be a way that the government might be keeping the price of PMs down -- attack those who buy?

If not, well... her story still looks like something out of the  card game "illuminati".  In her case, it looks like it was an "attack to control" by the LGBT against the Sci-Fi Fantasy crowd.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illuminati_%28game%29

 

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Effing fantastic Wendy!

I'm so proud of you guys! We should all prepare to follow your example. We have to stand up to The Evil everywhere we encounter it. And these days it seems to be everywhere. We have to do it because it's the right thing to do, not because we will prevail (because I don't think we will until the Power of this evil time is overthrown). We have to be willing to fight back and "lose," rather than play along and be "rewarded." In hindsight, and only in hindsight, will we be remembered as heroes of The Light. In the meantime we have a measure of suffering to undergo. "Let's roll!"

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coordinated media...

Thank you for your reporting on a personal scrape with ... well... a less benign version of this;

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scripted news

Sometimes it all does seem to boil down to a game of Illuminati.  That game was, perhaps, my first glance behind the curtain.  I've never forgotten it.

Interesting to hear that the wire services are the choke point.  It makes sense.  Back in the day news was very profitable, but the Internet has destroyed the business model so it can't make any money.  As a result, it is a cheap acquisition for anyone who is looking for an axis of control versus a profit center.

I firmly believe that a good chunk of the "intervention" by the authorities comes via media.  Its cheap, low risk from a financial viewpoint, and very effective.  If you can control the minds, the bodies (and buying decisions) will follow.

SP, I'm very curious who controls those meetings where the news is decided, and why.

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Ad hom.

Dave,

Don't you ever dare complain of ad hominems. For every slight there are 10 acolytes,  sycophants even. 

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Michael_Rudmin
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Arthur it was me who had "ad hominem".

But I was using the phrase unconventionally: that I wondered if the government could control the price of PMs by attacking the people who were inclined to invest there.

Not that I find it likely.

But I was throwing it out there to see if others were under attack too.

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Michael_Rudmin
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Arthur it was me who had "ad hominem".

But I was using the phrase unconventionally: that I wondered if the government could control the price of PMs by attacking the people who were inclined to invest there.

Not that I find it likely.

But I was throwing it out there to see if others were under attack too.

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Gold as money

From our friends at BullionStar in Singapore... a small nugget that I have never seen in print before.. worth some deep thought;

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/paper-gold-trading/

Gold is rare, beautiful and has superior metallic characteristics to other metals. Furthermore, gold is durable, portable, divisible, fungible and possesses intrinsic value.  This has led to gold being used as money throughout most of recorded human history. One of the strongest historical value propositions of gold as money is that gold naturally emerged as money in different civilizations and continents worldwide, without the civilizations being aware of each other.

Unbacked fiat/paper/credit, and nowadays electronic currency, has a poor track record. Every time it has been tried historically, it has vanished through hyperinflation, war or political decrees. The fiat currencies of today actually have comparatively good track records, but even so, most currencies in circulation a century ago are no longer in existence today and the ones that are have lost 99% or more of their purchasing power.

Still, there’s a lot of gold bashing in the mainstream media as the gold price has fallen slightly over the last couple of years when priced in some of the fiat currencies. Measuring gold in something worthless (fiat currency) is upside down though. Gold has maintained and even increased its purchasing power in the last century, whereas all fiat currencies have lost 99% – 100% of their purchasing power.

Why are there no fiat currency bashing articles in mainstream media? 99% – 100% lost in a century – What a fraud!

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David Allan
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Great post Jim

Jim, I like that you call this thread the Physical gold and silver commentary. I am still gob-smacked that informed people believe a derivative leveraged at 300:1 fairly and accurately  reflects the value of the underlying physical product. Price, yes (for now). Value, no way.

Keep up the alternate commentary.

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Wendy S. Delmater
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Wait a minute

Wait a minute. Are people paying for storage fees for physical gold that does not exist? Or, to put it another way, due to hypothication and rehypothication, are 300 people (or institutions) paying storage fees on the same ounce of gold? I realize much of this is "paper gold" but still, all I can think of is the movie The Producers.

 

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Hedge Fund Playland

Sponsored by the government hedge funds get to play to the harm of economy as capital investment is chased away.   

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Wendy S. Delmater
Wendy S. Delmater wrote:

Sand_Puppy,

Nothing to do with gold but here is an example of a coordinated media campaign...and my magazine was one of those targeted.

Early this year I was part of a group that was trying to bring back what we thought were "good stories" to the science fiction and fantasy genre. We felt that all of the somewhat boring message fiction about victims of gender and racial inequality, the evils of colonialism and capitalism. and other "causes du jour" were dragging down the Hugo awards ceremonies, so we tried to get some things we liked nominated. Very successfully, I might add. The campaign was called "Sad Puppies 3"  (SP3) since it was expanded from two previous, similar but more limited efforts. The guy who ran SP1 & SP2 was a rather conservative Portuguese-American but in SP3 we had women, minorities, and politics of all sorts, even non-traditional sexuality. And we did everything in the open,, legally. But two days after the nominations came out, here is what they hit us with:

Articles that quoted the same "talking points" in Salon, Daily Dot, Comics Alliance, Reddit, Entertainment Weekly, The London Telegraph, Huffington Post, The AV Club (no joke: serious culture news from The Onion) , Slash Dot, io9, The Guardian, Stuff.com (NZ), followed by too many blog posts to count. All of them basically said that the SP3 slate was exclusively white, straight, and male (not true). Most of them said that last year's Hugo awards was a big win for diversity (last year's winners were all white and one Asian). EW had to retract, big time, when they let a junior staffer post their Anti-Puppies article as "news" with no weasel words, but the rest were patent lies untouchable even by lawsuits. We were called misogynists, racists, homophobes, and at one point even neo-Nazis although that last got someone at the DIRECTOR level at a traditional publisher in trouble with their parent company and caused a grudging apology and a new social media policy for the company in question. Otherwise, the lies were believed and swallowed whole.

Our magazine was up for Best Semiprozine via SP3. Um, last I checked I was not a white male misogynist homophobic racist. My mostly-female staff, including my black best friend and 2nd in command, were equally bemused. But we were not in an important category. Those who were up for best novel and best short story, novella, novelette, and best editor (long form or short form) endured the most astounding character assassinations.

Later there were follow-up articles in The Atlantic and two follow-ups in WIRED, one of which I was interviewed for (very warily). Not that I was quoted: I did not fit the narrative. They trounced us at the awards by somehow coming up with 2500 votes for No Award in all categories we were in. I have no idea if those were people who believed the lies. but the other side was giving away free voting memberships.

If they will fight this dirty where only a genre book award is at stake, what will they do about things like the price of gold?

But there is a silver (hey, it's a precious metal too!) lining. They no longer intimidate us. Sure, a few weak sisters jumped ship over the "controversy" (and were lavishly rewarded) but the gatekeepers at the traditional publishers are seriously losing their grip on SF &F publishing due to independent small publishers and self publishing. Just like the music industry, writers are making an end run around TPTB.

Just like those who manipulate the gold and silver markets cannot reign forever. Reality eventually catches up and bites hard, and then I believe that those who have actual works (or bullion) to sell will have the upper hand.

Well then we have endemic psychopathic bullying.  

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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what's the latest?

JimH-

Where's my physical end of week commentary?  :-)

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