PM Daily Market Commentary - 9/29/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Wed, Sep 30, 2015 - 3:03am

Gold fell -4.40 to 1126.90 on moderate volume, while silver rose +0.05 to 14.61 0.53 to 14.56 on moderately light volume.  PM traded mostly sideways within a relatively narrow range, with gold fading a bit at end of day.

Gold has now fallen through its short-term uptrend line, and is now eyeing the support level at 1120.  A drop through 1120 would probably lead to a retest of 1100.  While gold remains above its 50 MA, it is fading a bit.

Silver made a new low by a slim margin, and was able to rally modestly off that low.  It is right at its uptrend line; if the shallow uptrend that is still in place is broken, then we are looking at 14.25 support, followed by 14.00.  Below that, we have nothing.

Miners ticked up today, with GDX up +0.68% on light volume, and GDXJ rose +0.16 on very light volume.  Today was largely uneventful for the miners.

The USD fell -0.19 to 95.99, continuing to slowly fall after its failure to rise above the 50 MA last week.  This is mostly a Euro effect, with $XEU having found support on its own 50 MA and is now slowly moving higher.

SPX made a new low prior to the US market open, but found some support near the previous low set back on Aug 24th.  SPX was unable to keep any gains from its intraday rally, however it did print a doji on the day.  SPX ended up +2.32, with volume being relatively heavy.  In this situation, a doji print is actually a bullish signal; the sellers are running out of steam, and the buyers are starting to show up near the previous low.  VIX fell -0.80 to 26.83.  If the previous low holds, and SPX can close above 1900, it will mark a swing low and a multi-day rally will probably result.  The high volume today lends emphasis to the doji candle.

JNK made a new low, but only fell -0.08%; it didn't print any sort of reversal candle, but neither did it sell off hard.  JNK is quite oversold and could easily rally from here with a little encouragement.

Bond ETF TLT finally managed to move above its 200 MA, rising +0.28%.  TLT's gains have been tepid given the move lower in equities, but perhaps the move above the 200 will break something loose for bonds.

The CRB (commodity index) rose +0.40%, a modest rally after yesterday's larger loss.  Right now its 3 steps back, and two steps forward for commodities; they continue to slowly move lower.  CRB remains below all of its moving averages and looks bearish.

WTIC (oil) tried rallying today and mostly failed, rising +0.41 to 44.89.  Oil also is below its moving averages, and appears to be slowly heading for a break of the critical 44 support level.

HAA has 100 oz gold bars right now in NYC at 1150.88/oz [+2.20% over spot], and 1000 oz silver bars in NYC at 15.17/oz [+3.77% over spot].   Eagles in NYC are quoted at 20.29 [+37.91% over spot].  Premiums on the big bars were slightly lower, as were Silver Eagle premiums.

Not much happened today to change the picture of where things are going; just possibly SPX is in the process of putting in an interim low, but its too soon to tell just yet.

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