PM Daily Market Commentary - 9/14/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Tue, Sep 15, 2015 - 7:06am

Gold fell -0.40 to 1107.50 on light volume, while silver dropped -0.20 to 14.38 on moderately light volume.  Trading in gold was quiet, while silver followed copper and oil lower.

My sense is that gold is in a holding pattern, awaiting the results of the FOMC meeting which starts tomorrow with the rate announcement coming on Wednesday at 14:00 ET.

Silver is looking a bit more bearish today - after Friday's strong showing, silver decided to fall, losing -1.41% following copper which dropped -1.61% on the day.  The 14 support level for copper is not so far away.

Miners were split today, with GDX off -1.06% on light volume, while GDXJ climbed +0.89% also on light volume.  The rise in GDXJ was surprising; the juniors are looking better than the seniors, which remains a curiosity in the PM space.

The USD rose +0.22, finding some support at the 200 MA but still not looking all that healthy.  The Fed meeting is coming up, and my guess is we probably will get a strong move when the rate hike news is released.  In the meantime, unless there is some particularly alarming news that occurs, we probably won't get too much price movement in the buck.

SPX was also a bit quieter today, dropping -8.02 to 1953.03.  It wasn't a particularly eventful day, and the daily chart didn't change much at all.  VIX rose +1.05 to 24.25.

Bond ETF TLT rose slightly, up +0.16%.  Bonds look to be in a holding pattern like most everything else.

The CRB (commodity index) fell -0.47%, continuing to form its bearish descending triangle pattern.  If the pattern continues to its logical conclusion, commodities probably sell off within the next few days.

WTIC (oil) sold off as well, dropping -0.66 to 44.12.  They too are forming a descending triangle, with key support at 44.  Prices dipped below 44 today but rallied back by the close.  Oil really needs to rally soon, or else it (like commodities) will probably sell off sharply within the next few days.

HAA has 100 oz gold bars right now in NYC at 1130.29/oz [+2.20% over spot], and 1000 oz silver bars right now in NYC at 15.85/oz [3.84% over spot].   Eagles are now 33.36% over spot in NYC.  Premiums are inching higher.

The descending triangle pattern in oil and the overall commodity index hints at a sell-off about the time of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.  If it happens, it might drag silver through the 14.00 support level.  Gold looks to be in a holding pattern as is SPX, bonds, and the USD.

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