PM Daily Market Commentary - 9/10/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Fri, Sep 11, 2015 - 2:15am

Gold rallied +4.80 to 1110.10 on moderate volume, and silver rose +0.10 to 14.68 also on moderate volume.   Copper and oil both rallied, leading the commodity complex higher, while the USD fell relatively hard.  The moves in PM today were mostly currency effects.

After plunging $15 yesterday, today's rebound of $5 was relatively uninspired, and given the sharp drop in the buck, distinctly unimpressive.  COMEX buyers are not yet ready to buy the dip, it seems.  Gold actually fell in Euro terms today, down -0.19%.

Silver did not do much better, rallying nicely at one point but ultimately failing to hold onto its gains.  Its commodity brothers generally did better today.  Silver remains within its recent trading range with any upside moves being capped by the 50 MA.

Miners opened up, but then sold off for the rest of the day, with GDX ending off -0.08% on light volume, and GDXJ dropping -0.26% on very light volume.  I see scant interest in the miners at this point.  GDX remains in its descending triangle pattern, and it is within 1% of the 13 support level.  Any serious dip in gold, and GDX probably loses 13 and sells off hard.

The USD traded mostly sideways today until 11:00 ET, when it sold off hard, eventually closing down -0.57 to 95.44.  The buck's chart now definitely looks like the dollar's near term momentum is lower.  This should help support PM, although as we've seen, at the moment gold is having a hard time moving higher.

SPX traded in a range today, eventually closing up +10.25 [+0.53%] to 1952.29.  The equity market has been chopping sideways with decreasing price swings.  This is an indecision pattern, which usually ends up in a breakout in either direction.  VIX fell -1.86 to 24.37.  Put prices are still quite expensive; this tends to make me think the market will rise, if only to hose all those put-holders.

Bond ETF TLT sold off a bit today, dropping -0.68% and moving below the 50 MA.  Bonds still seem to be ailing a bit - I think it would take a large sell-off in the equity market to bring bonds back to life.  And even then, I'm not so sure how well they would end up doing.

The CRB (commodity index) rose +1.13%, largely wiping out yesterday's losses and pulling CRB back above its 9 EMA.  Commodities have been trading sideways within a range over the past two weeks; I thought we might see a breakdown yesterday, but I think they were rescued by the drop in the buck.

WTIC (oil) rallied quite strongly today, climbing +1.62 [+3.67%] to 45.73, dipping briefly below 44 in Asia only to rally back steadily for the rest of the day.  Oil almost wiped out yesterday's losses with today's move, climbing back above the 9 EMA.  The Petroleum Status Report at 11:00 ET revealed a build in oil inventories; this would normally be bearish, but I guess the build wasn't as bad as the market expected.  Selling happened at 11:00 but it was quickly overwhelmed by the buyers.

Copper continued to move higher today in spite of yesterday's inverted hammer candle.  That's good news, and should help support higher silver prices.

HAA has 100 oz gold bars right now in NYC at 1135.60/oz [+2.18% over spot], and 1000 oz silver bars right now in NYC at 15.26/oz [3.72% over spot].   Eagles remain at 32% over spot in NYC, but still no big bar shortage.

Oil found buyers below 44 which keeps things afloat for now, commodities overall are tracking sideways, gold remains weak, silver is doing somewhat better, and the miners remain just barely above support.  Its not a great picture right now for PM.

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4 Comments

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2387
HAA may have some bars left... but availability could end soon

From Kranzler;

Perhaps the best – yet least understood – evidence of the darkness which is slowly engulfing the the U.S. is the disappearance of physical precious metals from the global financial system.   Gold and silver is being removed hand-over-fist from public view.  Most of the gold is being moved from west to east, where it’s being removed from the bullion exchanges by the 10’s of tonnes on a daily basis.  For instance, the Hong Kong Metals Exchange just had its largest daily withdrawal – 19.7 tonnes – in its history.   Roughly 100 tonnes per week is now being removed from the Shanghai Gold Exchange.  This is Gresham’s Law in action, folks.

We already know about the growing shortages for minted silver products around the world, especially in the U.S.   And the disappearance of gold from the Comex bank vaults is nothing short of stunning.  The ratio of fraudulent paper gold to deliverable physical gold hit 229:1 to yesterday.  To say this is “silly” is an insult to the word “silly.”  This reflects and epitomizes the extreme degree of corruption, fraud and theft which is burying the United States.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/from-dystopia-to-armegeddon/

I highlighted one line above.. and I think it is very important to understand that what is happening now is in fact Gresham's law in action.  Gresham's law is easy... bad money supplants good money.. in other words, the good money gets hoarded, literally out of existence.  That is what is happening right now... only most here don't realize it.  A very small percentage in the West even understand this concept... because they have no gut sense of how bad paper money can be.  In China, and India, they understand this.. and that is why they are sucking up the supply.  In the West a very small percentage of the middle and upper classes understand this, and those few buyers, which include some of us here on PP.com, are taking as much metal as we can out of circulation.. and even though this is a small minority, the coin stores, and the online businesses, are almost out of Silver.  

The end of availability will come as a thief in the night.. like a bank holiday, suddenly there just will not be metal available anymore.  Those few ounces still available will be owed so many times over, to so many different counterparties, that the supply pipelines will not again refill until a significant reset has occurred.  Good luck all.     

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5465
predictions

Ok Jim, let's hear the timeline on what's going to happen.  Can we get a date certain on the COMEX default?  I love predictions of COMEX default, I've seen so many come and go I get nostalgic.  :-)

I see only 5 (five) tons of gold in COMEX registered, but another 213 tons of gold as COMEX eligible.  Seems like a few transfers from eligible to registered would solve the problem.

Meanwhile, I see PSLV premium at +0.63%, PHYS premium at +0.02%, HAA 100oz Gold +2.19%, HAA 1000oz Silver +3.88%.  Transfers from any one of these areas would also solve the problem.

If there is a big bar shortage like this guy alleges, why aren't we seeing premiums in our usual places?  Even shanghai doesn't have crazy premiums.  If there were gold shortages in China, we'd see premiums, yes?

 

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2387
You changed the subject Dave....

I never mentioned a Comex default.  I said that regular folks would not be able to source PM's anymore because the store shelves would be empty.  We don't see the premiums in Shanghai growing because they are GETTING THE GOLD.  19 tonnes in one day.  That's the point... as the Gold goes East the leverage in the West goes up.. more and more leverage in unallocated Gold funds.. most probably even allocated Gold is getting taken.  The Comex will be the last to go.  You keep telling your readers everything is OK.. we will see in the end how quickly the end comes.  I don't know when the end comes.. only that we are getting closer.  The game is to keep China supplied.  The game will end when the Gold runs out and China can't get their fill anymore;

  https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/koos-jansen/its-virtually-impossible-t...

Greeks can't buy PM's... but that's because they can't get to their "bad" money.  It's interesting to think of Greece in terms of Gresham's law... one way to stop people from exchanging their bad money for good is to keep the bad money hard to get.  Makes even the bad money seem precious, doesn't it?  What a Grand Illusion. 

 

 

      

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5465
COMEX last to go

Ok, I stand corrected.  No COMEX default, even though there is only 5 tons left in registered gold.  And only small premiums in China - they are getting the gold from everywhere else.  And no premiums on the big bars anywhere I can see.

And yet...just how close are we to running out?  Are we days?  Weeks?  Months?  Or years?

Your posts always make it sound really alarming, like we should run out and buy 35% premium silver eagles immediately.  Your posts sound like "the end" is days, or at most weeks away.

And yet PSLV's premium is barely positive.

How do we square those two things?

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