PM Daily Market Commentary - 9/8/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Tue, Sep 8, 2015 - 10:46pm

Gold fell -1.40 to 1120.90 on moderately heavy volume while silver rallied +0.22 to 14.77 on moderate volume.  Gold was the laggard today, as silver, copper, and much of the commodity complex rallied strongly starting in the afternoon in Asia and continuing through to the close in NY.

Gold made a new low today by a buck, and remains within its descending triangle.  Gold continues to look lackluster, especially considering the rallies in the other metals today.  Gold's underperformance has caused the gold/silver ratio to plummet, now at 75.89, dropping -1.24 just today.  A dropping gold/silver ratio is usually bullish overall for PM, but gold still looks like it needs one more brisk drop before it finds a low.

Silver rallied strongly today alongside copper, which was on an absolute tear and rose +5.08%.  Silver did pretty well, climbing +1.51% and this move has helped silver's chart a bit.  Silver still needs a close above about 15 be out of the woods, but that is looking more likely today than it has in a while.  The best part is that silver managed to rally alongside its brothers, and actually held onto most of the gains by end of day - both things it has had trouble with for the past few weeks.

Miners managed to rally today, with GDX up +1.19% on light volume, while GDXJ rose +1.59% on light volume also.  Mining shares did outperform gold today, but not by much, and the GDX:$GOLD ratio remains near all time lows.  It looked like miners split the difference between gold and silver today.  The light volume and modest move doesn't really change the picture much at all.

The USD fell -0.25, closing at 95.99.  The buck's recent rally seems capped by the 50 MA, but there is an FOMC meeting scheduled for next week where the Fed will decide if they will raise rates or not.  The results of this meeting will probably drive the buck more than anything else in the near term, and my guess is the market will probably not move too dramatically prior to the meeting.

SPX had a big gain today, climbing +48.19 [+2.51%] to 1969.41.  While some people may prefer to give credit for the rally to the Plunge Protection Team or sneaky futures buying by the Fed, to my mind the US market was just rallying alongside most of the other world equity markets today.  In addition, various indicators have suggested that retail traders have really loaded up on bearish bets, and when retail gets excessively short, its just an invitation for Big Money to push the market in the other direction.  Does it look like the Fed's help was necessary to push stocks higher today?  Not to me.  VIX dropped -2.90 to 24.90.

Name Chart Change 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Emerging Asia GMF 3.86% -18.17% rising falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-09-08 2015-09-08
Eurozone EZU 2.93% -10.02% rising falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-09-08 2015-09-08
Europe IEV 2.91% -10.34% rising falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-09-08 2015-09-08
Developed Asia VPL 2.89% -10.42% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-08-31 2015-09-08
United States VTI 2.52% -0.14% rising falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-09-08 2015-09-08
Latin America ILF 1.67% -42.72% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-09-01 2015-09-08

Bond ETF TLT fell a big -1.48%, making a new closing low for this cycle.  The big move lower was probably a consequence of the large SPX rally.

The CRB (commodity index) rose +0.86%, remaining above its 9 EMA and thus still in its short term uptrend.

Copper helped CRB a great deal, climbing +5.08% on some really heavy volume, breaking above its 50 MA for the first time since May.   If copper can continue to rise, it will help all the other commodities to rise also.

WTIC (oil) fell yesterday during the US holiday, but recovered today; stockcharts shows this as down -0.04 to 45.73 for the two-day period, but it actually rose more than a buck today, rising alongside many of the other commodities.

After today's copper/commodity rally, things look a little brighter; my computer is no longer predicting doom & gloom in the commodity space.  It is now predicting a positive move for silver, of all things, and oil too at least in the shorter term.  Gold still looks weak.  That lines up with price action today, and what the charts are hinting at as well.

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6 Comments

Nate's picture
Nate
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 5 2009
Posts: 605
Armstrong

Financial Sense recently interviewed Martin Armstrong.  Here is a nice summary of that interview:

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/martin-armstrong/sovereign-debt-crisis-shakeout

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Online)
Joined: Apr 13 2011
Posts: 2032
Comex Leverage Is Pretty Far Outside the Usual Ranges

As discussed yesterday by Jim H and DaveF, the ratio of paper contracts to deliverable gold is pretty remarkable right now.

I don't follow the antics of this shell game as it is not pertinent to my own life.  But, this graph is pretty striking.

(Source)

David Allan's picture
David Allan
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 15 2009
Posts: 109
Armstrong

Interesting viewpoint in the financial sense link. I read some of Martin Armstrongs work after his name came up a few times recently - still not sure what to make of him. On the one hand he's a trend picker, he's got some great computer models and a track record of being accurate. On the other he seems to have no consideration for limits to growth, he's tracking on BAU. And he also seems to have taken the Chinese  stated gold reserves (1600 tons) to actually be true! So I guess I would give more weight to his short term analysis than his long term.

thc0655's picture
thc0655
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 27 2010
Posts: 1707
More on Comex shenanigans

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/anyone-who-believes-the-comex-numbers-is-a-dope/

Yesterday I published an article detailing the Comex gold futures to deliverable physical gold ratio that is now north of 200:1.  But an erudite colleague of mine, John Titus of “Best Evidence,” correctly pointed out that:  “They are probably bluffing.  In other words, thereal number is significantly higher than 200:1.

For the record, John does more thorough research on the economic numbers and reports that he studies than anyone I’ve ever come across.  And he does it with the trained analytic eye of a seasoned patent litigation attorney.

Let’s put everything in perspective.  The numerical reports from which fancy graphs and and dry detailed data presentations are created originate from the Too Big To Fail Banks. I’ve said for quite some time that IF the bullion banks who control the Comex and the LBMA are submitting honest data reports for the Comex and LBMA, it would be the only business line in which they do not hide the truth and report fraudulent numbers.  What is the probability of that?

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 656
What to DO?

Martin says: BUY STOCKS!

 PP.com and many others:  BUY GOLD!

 PP.com and others: HOLD CASH!

Rickards:  Use a BAR-BELL strategy: BUY select stocks, BUY gold (10% or more), HOLD cash, BUY productive LAND, and fine-art, maybe real estate: PREPARE for ALL eventualities. (need mucho dinero, no?)

Many: collapse.  Others: correction only.   Others: who the hell knows.

No wonder we are SO confused!!!!

Conflicting signals, conflicting interpretations, conflicting data.

What to DO?   Where to GO?    How to PREPARE?   Follow your individual intuitional inner guide.

Yet, Freud said we cannot know our UNCONSCIOUS totally. THUS, combine inner/outer guides

Catch 22?  Or, is it Catch 99.9%

koigrl's picture
koigrl
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 23 2014
Posts: 7
What to do?

What to do: Well put!

I made my decision four years ago. 70% cash. 30% precious metal (physical). I've read that seniors really have no business being in the stock market and you know -- having gone through the last three major corrections, I agree. I don't have enough valuable time to wait for markets to come back.

Still!

Frustrating to lose four years of bull market, while precious goes down. Will there be a reversal? I read persuasive arguments for both sides.

I have no debt, own my home and land, and cash may still be king. I hope.

Best wishes to all of us

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