PM Daily Market Commentary - 8/11/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Tue, Aug 11, 2015 - 5:17pm

Gold rose +4.00 to 1107.70 on heavy volume, while silver climbed +0.09 to 15.28 on extremely heavy volume.  Both metals fell in Asia trading, with gold touching 1092, and then spiked right back up again during the London session, hitting a high of 1119.10.  After all the excitement in both directions, gold ended up only modestly.  It looks to me like a bunch of stops were run - in both directions.

Senior miners did well, selling off early in the morning and then rallying back in the afternoon, closing at the highs of the day.  This is bullish behavior - there is usually some brisk selling after a big day - yesterday miners were up 6% and so today some people wanted to ring the cash register (and/or bail out).  Once the selling was over, buyers appeared and pushed prices higher.  If you watch things long enough, you know this is generally a good sign - just like it is a bad sign when traders sell at end of day.

Juniors did even better than the seniors, rising +3.31% on moderately heavy volume.  They too rallied strongly at end of day, closing at the highs.

The USD had a big trading range on the day, but ended up almost flat, up +0.03 to 97.23.  The dollar moves loosely correlated with gold's moves, but they didn't cause it - at least not those big spikes anyway.

In a mirror of yesterday, SPX fell for most of the day, starting in Asia through to the afternoon in NY.  It rallied modestly at end of day, but still closed down -20.11 to 2084.70, back below both the 9 EMA and the 50 MA.  Up one day, down the next.  VIX rose +1.41 to 13.64.

Bond ETF TLT rose +1.51%, a big move, and a new cycle high.  The general trend in bonds is up right now - three steps forward, two back.  TLT is now above all 3 moving averages.  It looks quite strong.

The CRB (commodity index) fell, dropping -1.55% and almost wiped out yesterday's big move.  I believe the commodity index is struggling to put in a low - sometimes you get a V bottom, and other times it has to con before it figures out it wants to rally.

Part of the problem: WTIC (oil) fell -1.75 to 43.08, wiping out yesterday's rally and then some.  Yesterday, oil failed to print a swing low, and now we're seeing continued weakness in oil.  It looks like we're going to test that March 42.41 low after all.

Miners look good, so does silver.  My flight is being called so that's all I can give you right now.  Perhaps I can add a few more charts once I land...

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1 Comment

KugsCheese's picture
KugsCheese
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2010
Posts: 1449
Everyone should read "The

Everyone should read "The Gold Invention" by Garet Garrett (1931): https://goo.gl/8CHWrh

Explains what money is and the problems we have today in a few pages.

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