PM Daily Market Commentary - 7/28/2015

By davefairtex on Tue, Jul 28, 2015 - 7:22pm

Gold rose +0.80 to 1094.30 on heavy volume, and silver climbed +0.14 to 14.65 on light volume.  Gold traded mostly sideways within a relatively narrow range, while silver climbed steadily throughout the day, closing near the high.

Gold printed a doji on the day, and ended up basically flat.  No swing low marked today.

Silver did well today, rising alongside the rest of the commodity complex.  Silver needs a close above 14.75 to mark a swing low.

Miners were relatively positive on the day, with GDX up +0.88% on moderate volume and GDXJ climbed +2.34% on moderately heavy volume.  Neither mining ETF was able to mark a swing low, but both of them were able to recover some of yesterday's large losses.

Platinum rose +0.39%,  -0.67%, palladium up +1.19%, copper up a big +2.81% - it did mark a swing low today.  Most commodities had at least a decent day, and some did quite well.

The dollar rose +0.26 to 96.86, a modest rise that didn't come close to regaining yesterday's big move lower.  The buck appears to be in a short term downtrend, having marked a swing high five trading days ago.

SPX seems to have found support on its 200 MA today, rising +25.61 to 2093.25, marking a swing low after five straight down days.  There was no economic report that triggered the rally - the low was hit at around 10:30, a half-hour after a decent manufacturing report was released at 10:00 right alongside a relatively weak consumer confidence number.  That said, oil equities (which led the market higher today) started their big rally right around that time.  Perhaps this was all about energy putting in a low.  VIX fell -2.16 to 13.44.

FOMC meeting started today, with the meeting announcement due tomorrow at 14:00.  We'll get to see more detail about that rate rise.

Bond ETF TLT printed a swing high today, dropping -0.73%.  It would make sense for TLT to top out as money flows from bonds to stocks.

JNK rose today, climbing +0.35% and is right on the edge of printing a swing low.  JNK seemed to enjoy the rally in oil.

The CRB (commodity index) rose +0.84% printing a swing low today after dropping for 8 days of the past 9.  Will this mark a durable reversal for the commodity index?  If so, that should be a real help for PM - and especially for silver.

WTIC (oil) rose +0.79 [+1.68%] to 47.77; oil however was unable to print a swing low.  Oil equities were greatly encouraged, with oil E&P up +2.99% and oil services up +2.59%, both of them printing clear swing lows.  Its hard to know if the oil equities are just overly enthusiastic, or this is in fact a low for oil.

Many segments of the commodity complex reversed today, and silver definitely was a beneficiary.  However, silver, gold, and the miners have yet to confirm reversals.  Right now gold, silver and the miners are chopping sideways, waiting for the buyers to appear and push prices higher.  If the commodity index has put in a durable reversal, then I believe it is just just a matter of time before PM takes off higher.  However the more time that passes without a rally in PM, the higher the risk that we resume heading lower.

The Fed meeting might prove decisive.  We'll know more after 14:00 tomorrow.

Note: If you're reading this and are not yet a member of Peak Prosperity's Gold & Silver Group, please consider joining it now. It's where our active community of precious metals enthusiasts have focused discussions on the developments most likely to impact gold & silver. Simply go here and click the "Join Today" button.


davefairtex's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5738
commodity rally, FOMC at 14:00

Oil popped this morning on a bullish-looking Petroleum Status report at 10:30...we can say it was the report, or we can say that the oil sell-off just went on long enough and its time for a bounce.  Oil has put in a swing low at this point, and oil equities are responding strongly.

I believe this is helping to drag silver higher - it is closing on its "swing low" level.

To me the timing of all this is very interesting.  Commodities bottom out the day before the FOMC announcement?  If the Fed appears dovish, I think commodities and PM will take off like a scalded cat.  That's the setup - the outcome that will make the bankers the most money, with managed money all piled onto the short side of the boat.

Shorts tried to push gold lower this AM, but ran into buyers at 1090.

A commodity rally is not the only possible outcome, however, which keeps things interesting.

FOMC announcement at 14:00 Eastern.

davefairtex's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5738
silver breakout

Silver just broke out - miners are responding.  If silver closes at this level, we have our swing low for silver today.

Perhaps the shorts are getting nervous...


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments