PM Daily Market Commentary - 7/21/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Tue, Jul 21, 2015 - 11:09pm

After yesterdays gold-pocalypse, gold rose +3.50 to 1100.20 on heavy volume, while silver climbed +0.17 to 14.81 on moderately light volume.  Gold's extremely tepid rebound was made even more pathetic by the plunge in the buck, which dropped relatively hard on the day.  Gold in Euros closed down -0.73%.

Gold tried rallying today and mostly failed.  If there are buyers out there, they haven't shown up yet.

Silver looked a whole lot better than gold.  Yesterday it dropped a lot less, and today silver rallied more strongly than gold.  It retained more of its gains, and is not all that far from marking a swing low.  Now the problem is, silver hasn't had quite the capitulation that gold has, so a swing low in silver isn't quite as exciting.  Nevertheless, I believe it would be a decent buy signal for silver if it managed to close above 15.

After yesterday's mining share disaster, the rebound today was a bit lukewarm.  GDX rose +2.62% on heavy volume, recovering just a quarter of yesterday's loss.  The juniors did a bit better, with GDXJ up +3.96% on heavy volume also.   Both miners rallied strongly in the first hour of trading, but then slowly sold off for the remainder of the day.  You can see in the chart below the gravestone doji - not a great candle to see when you are looking for a bounce.  Gravestone doji = failed rally.

Platinum had a weak rally too: it rose just +0.14%.  Palladium did the best, up +3.62% and it also managed to print a swing low today.

The dollar tanked hard today, dropping -0.74 to 97.43, finding support on its 9 EMA.  The drop in the buck should have provided some support for commodities and PM; the fact that gold wasn't able to rally is not a good sign.  If the dollar starts rising again, we may have to drop below 1080 for gold to find more buyers.

SPX sold off today, with SPX printing a swing high after trying and failing to set a new all time high yesterday.  I'm guessing we'll correct for a bit here.  VIX dropped -0.03 to 12.22.  Nobody seems worried; I guess that makes sense, since we're only 12 points away from a new all time closing high.

Bond ETF TLT rallied +0.54%, a nice move but TLT remains within its trading range, bouncing around near the recent lows.

The CRB (commodity index) rose +0.08%, a poor performance given the drop in the buck.  Commodities priced in Euros made a new low today.

WTIC (oil) managed to move up +0.37 [+0.74%] to $50.61.  Mostly it was a failed rally.  WTIC still doesn't seem quite ready to rally just yet.

We are still waiting for a swing low on gold, silver, and the miners, with silver the closest of the bunch.  Most commodities still look weak.  Risks are still to the downside until the market proves otherwise.

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4 Comments

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 654
Dave: A Suggestion

Yes, I agree with the others.  Can't thank you enough.

Dave:  Why not start your OWN Investment/Financial organization?  You would do very well!!  You are an EDUCATOR, as well as a great analyst. I especially like your open-mindedness and broad range of investigation.  Ken

AaronMcKeon's picture
AaronMcKeon
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 29 2014
Posts: 74
COMEX Silver Deliveries

I came across this article today was wondering if anybody who understands the ins and outs of COMEX could chime in on it to see if it's worth factoring into any analysis.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/epic-silver-shortage-imminent-3-5-m-oz-of-s...

Jbarney's picture
Jbarney
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 26 2010
Posts: 233
More Info

Sorry if this is a repeat post....  So I went to on of three guys in Vermont that I purchase silver from.  I don't know him well enough to ask direct questions related to the volume he experiences, but when I purchased my (small amount of) silver yesterday, I casually asked him if people were buying right now.  The return comment was something that struck me as odd, and I am just curious if anyone else is hearing something similar.  And again, he could be giving me rather quick answers to my polite inquiries....

Basically, he has the feeling A LOT of people are selling their physical silver right now.  I didn't have time to get into it with him as there were other customers at the counter, but he just had the impression a lot of people were tired of getting beaten up by the price drops and were getting out.

Hopefully I will have the chance to check with the other two guys in my area....

 

JB

KennethPollinger's picture
KennethPollinger
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2010
Posts: 654
One more Question

Dave.  Your info on the Swing Low was really great, especially the idea of waiting for the last HALF HOUR. What I now wonder about: does the capitulation refer BOTH to physical metal AS WELL as senior and junior mining stocks?  Or are these two separate issues?

I've got plenty of the physical metals but am DYING to jump into the miners.  And of course, WHICH miners whether senior or junior are better?  So much contrary info on this.  Not advice, just observations. NEM really scared me!!  If you cannot say anything about the miners, where would I go to get more enlightened info, without paying an expensive fee.  Thanks,  Ken

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