PM Daily Market Commentary - 7/14/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Tue, Jul 14, 2015 - 8:07pm

Gold fell -2.70 to 1154.30 on moderate volume, while silver dropped -0.13 to 15.35 on light volume.  Both gold and silver rallied on the weak retail sales report at 08:30 EDT, but the rally did not last.

Gold has been unable to close above its 9 EMA for the past 4 weeks.  Given this steady decline and the inability to close above the downtrending 9 EMA, I believe we probably test the 1140 low sometime this week.  I'm not sure 1140 will hold.

Silver managed to rally back above 15.25, but has been unable to close above its own downtrend line.  It looks ever so marginally better than gold.  Best looking horse in the glue factory.

GDX fell -0.60% on very light volume, while GDXJ dropped -1.18% on light volume.  Neither miner ETF has been able to close above its 9 EMA for the past few weeks either.  Miners and metal all look bad.

The dollar fell -0.21 to 96.78.  It took a tumble on the bad retail sales report at 08:30, but managed to recover most of its losses.  In spite of today's modest retreat, the dollar continues slowly moving higher.   Commodity nation currencies are doing poorly, with the AUD making a series of multi-year lows.  CAD is bouncing along the bottom.

SPX (US equities) moved higher, up +9.35 to 2108.95, closing above its 50 MA for the first time in several weeks.  The past three days have seen strong rallies in SPX.  Greek relief rally?  Its hard to say.  Certainly one might have expected the market to drop on poor retail sales...but it didn't. VIX dropped -0.53 to 13.37.

Bond ETF TLT rose +0.33%, but that was simply a very modest move off the lows.  Bonds remain weak.

The CRB (commodity index) was up +0.40% and was able to close above its 9 EMA.  It is only slow improvement after last week's commodity mini-crash.

WTIC (oil) rallied strongly today, up +1.36 to 53.37.  Oil has been trading in a range for the past six sessions; it needs a close above 54 to get something moving to the upside.

PM looks weak.  Seasonally, its a weak time of the year for gold, and while there might be physical buyers, there don't seem to be too many at the COMEX.  Unless that changes, we test 1140 soon - and it probably fails.

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