PM Daily Market Commentary - 6/24/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Thu, Jun 25, 2015 - 9:50am

Gold fell -3.60 to 1174.20 on moderate volume, while silver rose +0.05 to 15.85 on heavy volume.  Gold made a new low on the day, touching 1168.10 about an hour before NY market open, and spent the rest of the day struggling to bounce back.  Silver traded sideways in a narrow range, with an upward bias.

The buck fell on the day, so today's gold weakness was not a currency effect.  The shorts worked on gold today, driving it through the 1170 level and stopping out a number of longs.  Silver looked stronger - or perhaps the shorts were satisified with the results of yesterday's selloff.

Gold has support at its previous low of 1162.  A drop below that would probably lead to a retest of the March low at 1140.

Mining shares were mostly unchanged - GDX fell -0.11% on very light volume, while GDXJ rose +0.08% on very light volume also.  Apparently there were no catalysts to either buy or sell today for the miners.

The buck tried to rise above its 50 MA today but failed, falling -0.26 to 95.42.   The Euro gained +0.40%, while most of the other currencies were flat or fell vs the buck.  The Greek situation continues to remain unsolved, the optimism from yesterday tempered by ongoing disagreement today.  The differences at this point are mostly minor; it feels to me that both sides are doing this last minute stuff for domestic political consumption.  Will they blow the deal up over minor differences?  My guess is no - unless there was never any deal to be had in the first place.

SPX (US equities) sold off relatively hard, dropping -15.62 to 2108.58, finding support just above the 50 MA.  SPX sold off steadily for most of the day, closing at the dead lows.  The market continues to trade within its recent trading range, neither breaking out, or down.  VIX rose sharply +1.15 to 13.26.

GDP for Q1 was revised upwards, to a -0.2% value instead of -0.7%. 

Bond ETF TLT actually rallied today, up +0.86%, catching a bid as the equity market fell.

The CRB (commodity index) fell, losing -0.12% after attempting to rally above its 50 MA and then failing.

WTIC (west texas crude) dropped hard, falling -0.92 to 60.21, with the retreat happening immediately after the Petroleum Status Report showed that oil in storage dropped -4.9 million barrels - seemingly a bullish result for oil, but...perhaps the market expected more.

PM still isn't finding a catalyst.  There were signs of dip-buyers on the spike lower in gold, but they were not numerous enough to push gold prices back to their starting point on the day.  Gold just doesn't look quite ready yet.  Let's hope 1162 support holds.

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