PM Daily Market Commentary - 5/27/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Thu, May 28, 2015 - 2:05am

Gold rose +0.20 to 1187.40 on very heavy volume, while silver fell -0.07 to 16.68 on moderate volume.  Gold and silver both made new lows, but managed to rebound when the dollar failed to move higher.  Silver dropped to its 50 MA, found support and rebounded.

Did gold find support here at 1187?  Maybe.  I think the question is more about the Euro/dollar currency pair.  If the Euro stops dropping, gold will likely benefit.

Miners rallied today, with GDX up +1.01% on light volume, and GDXJ up +0.87% on very light volume.  Miners are looking a bit better than metal right now; I'd like to see a swing low for miners before getting too excited about their prospects.

The buck rested today after yesterday's massive surge, rising +0.07 to 97.47.  It attempted to rise during the European trading session and managed to hit 97.88, only to fall back once the market opened in NY.

The Yen is looking disturbingly weak, having dropped 6 of the past 7 days, breaking to new lows.  Yen closed today at 80.85 perhaps finding interim support, but the longer term Yen chart looks really horrible.  The weekly chart (below) shows a series of descending triangle patterns ending in breakdowns.

The monthly chart shows the Yen has retraced all the way back to the 2007 lows.  If the Yen breaks 80, the next stop is likely to be somewhere around 75.  Based on the selling following the breakdown of the latest (weekly) descending triangle pattern, I'd say the chances are pretty good for a continued move downhill.  Money continues to flee Japan in a major way.

SPX (US equities) rallied back after yesterday's drop, climbing +19.28 to 2123.48.  Buy the dip - a one day 1% dip in this case - is still happening for US equities.  Perhaps some of that is caused by all the money fleeing Japan.  VIX dropped -0.79 to 13.27.

Bond ETF TLT is continuing to rally, up +0.23%, having rallied 5 days in a row.

The CRB (commodity index) continued falling, losing -0.69%, continuing the correction that started two weeks ago.  CRB has now closed below its 50 MA for two days running.

WTIC (west texas crude) fell -0.70 to 57.65, making a new low.  While WTIC is trailing the CRB in terms of the chart pattern, it appears that oil is beginning to correct as well, ever so slowly.

Gold and silver stopped dropping on a day the dollar paused.  Dollar strength makes it much more difficult for PM to rise; however if gold cannot rally when the dollar drops, that's a bad sign, and it suggests we probably have lower prices ahead for PM.

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1 Comment

Jbarney's picture
Jbarney
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 25 2010
Posts: 233
1959 Dime

Put on a pair of shorts yesterday, went to work, and realized at some point I had left pocket change in them.  Most of the time I will check the dates on quarters and dimes.  I have only found a pre-64 dime once....just by random luck.

You can imagine my great surprise yesterday when one of the dimes in my pocket was a 1959 dime.  I'm almost certain it was one that was in circulation.....NOT one that I had purchased at some point and forgotten about.  When I purchase silver, I am pretty religious about knowing where I have put it.

So based on my age (40 this summer) and 1964 coins getting further and further in the rear view mirror, I don't know how many more random finds I will have.  I will continue to look though.

Maybe this was a sign from the precious metals gods?  Up swing coming?

Peace,

Jason

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