PM Daily Market Commentary - 5/5/2015

By davefairtex on Wed, May 6, 2015 - 1:45am

Gold rose +5.20 to 1192.50 on moderate volume, while silver climbed +0.14 to 16.54 on moderate volume.  Gold continued moving higher today, helped by a weak dollar, but gold once again trailed off into the close.

Gold is moving higher, but not enthusiastically.

The mining shares suffered today, with GDX dropping -0.93% on moderate volume, while GDXJ fell -1.25% on light volume.  Mining shares were sold for most of the day, rallying a bit into the close.  Still, miners remain in their uptrend, and are still above the 9 EMA.

The buck tried to rally today and failed, dropping -0.43 to 95.20.  The dollar continues to look weak.

SPX (US equities) were sold relatively hard today, dropping -25.03 to 2089.46.  SPX was sold all day long - there was no economic report that seemed to drive prices.  A strong Non-Mfg ISM report didn't seem to help; perhaps a strong services report was already baked into the cake.  VIX rose +1.46 to 14.31.  The critical Nonfarm Payrolls report is coming up this Friday.  It has the potential to drive the market in either direction, and will provide us an important clue as to whether the Q1 slowdown was transitory or not.

Bond ETF TLT fell slightly today, down -0.14% printing a hammer candle, which suggests that perhaps an interim low in bonds may be at hand.  Bonds appear to be at support from both previous lows as well as the 200 MA.

The CRB (commodity index) rose a big +1.32%, making a new high for this up-cycle; prices for CRB were last seen in December 2014.

WTIC (west texas crude) rose as well, climbing +1.65 [+2.80%] to 60.67.  Price was last seen here in mid-December 2014.   WTIC has remained above its 9 EMA for the past 5 weeks, which indicates a steady uptrend.  The volume picture remains bullish too, with the up-day volume vastly exceeding the down-day volume.

Gold may have put in a low yesterday, but it is hard to know how durable this low will be given how relatively weak gold looks.   A close above $1212 will be helpful, and a close above the previous high of 1227 will be bullish.

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