PM End of Week Market Commentary - 5/1/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Sat, May 2, 2015 - 4:55am

On Friday, gold fell -6.30 to 1177.20 on moderate volume, while silver rose +0.01 to 16.12 on light volume.   The dollar was up strongly on Friday, which provided headwinds for gold, however buyers are starting to show up for gold at these levels in spite of the stronger dollar.

On the week, gold ended down -2.70 [-0.23%] silver rose +0.41 [+2.61%], GDX climbed +4.70% and GDXJ was up +3.43%.  Gold underperformed all the PM components this week.

Gold made a new cycle low on Friday, hitting 1168.40 at its nadir.

The USD

The buck dropped for a third week in a row, falling -1.65 [-1.70%] to 95.44. The dollar is now down 5% off its highs, but during this three week drop gold has fallen as well.  This relatively abnormal behavior suggests to me that the same forces causing the dollar to drop is also affecting gold too.  My guess: it's a relief rally in the Euro driven by a partial unwind of the Grexit safe haven trade.

No inflation, and an improving situation in Greece = no reason to buy gold.  This "improving situation in Greece" conclusion is supported by the drop in the buck / rebound in the Euro.  This doesn't mean the Greek debts are now suddenly sustainable, but it does suggest Greece won't default in the next month or so.  Or at least that's what traders are projecting.

Miners

Miners continued to chug higher this week, with GDX breaking cleanly out of its ascending triangle pattern.  Even with gold's drop this week, mining shares managed to make some decent gains.  This bullishness in miners even with the weakness in gold is a relatively new phenomenon; last year we saw miners tank every time gold dropped even a little bit.  Now, it seems that there is buying support under share prices even on days when gold has trouble.

So what changed from 2014 to now?  How about oil prices dropping in half?  Some of the larger miners have managed to actually break even and/or make money with gold at these price levels.  That has to help.  Depending on which analysis you read, oil accounts for 10-20% of mining costs; cutting that in half is a nice present for the mining companies.

US Equities/SPX

This week, the equity market moved slightly off its highs, dropping -9.40 [-0.44%] to 2108.29.  Three of the past 5 days were spent moving lower, but on Friday SPX staged a 23 point rally to end the week on a strong positive note.  The VIX rose +0.41 to 12.70 on the week.

Economic news this week continued to be generally negative.  Even so, the FOMC suggested on Wednesday that a rate rise in June was not off the table, and they also suggested current economic weakness was a transitory situation.  Q1 Real GDP estimates came in at a surprisingly low +0.2%, which aligns with the GDP Now projections from the Atlanta Fed.  Do we imagine the Fed possesses any special wisdom about where the economy is going next?  They don't have a great track record, and they have a vested interest in spreading happy talk.

The equity market seems to be buying it.  Either that happy talk, or capital flows from other places continues to keep the market supported.

Gold in Other Currencies

While last week gold dropped in every currency, this week gold was mixed.  Gold in Euros tanked hard, while gold in many other currencies actually rallied: BRL, Yen, Ruble, even CNY.  But if we use the XDR as a baseline currency, we get the sense that gold was down overall on the week.

Rates & Commodities

Bonds (TLT) fell hard this week, dropping a big -3.73%.  Given the downside velocity, the bond market probably has further to fall.  It could be rescued if the Greek situation decides to worsen, or if the US equity market starts having problems, but if not - bonds probably go lower still.

Junk bonds (JNK) were mostly flat, dropping only -0.13%.

The CRB (commodity index) climbed again this week, rising +1.74% mostly on the back of rising oil prices and the dropping dollar.  This is the seventh straight week of rising commodity prices - they are slowly crawling up off the lows.

After last week's rest, WTIC continued moving higher, rising +1.84 [+3.20%] to 59.26.  WTIC is up $18 off its 42 low that was marked 7 weeks ago.

Rig counts dropped again this week, with the total US land rigs down -27 to 868 rigs.  Percentagewise, the speed of rig count drop continues much as it did during April, at about 3% per week.  We are far below "break-even" for maintaining shale production, however the backlog of un-fracked wells is massive.  It will be interesting to see at what price those unfracked wells will be brought on line.

My NN is still suggesting we've hit an interim high point for WTIC.  Actually, two different algorithms agree on this prediction.  I'm not sure the reversal will be particularly dramatic, but we might drop 10% from current levels.

Physical Supply Indicators

* Shanghai premiums were about +2.47 over COMEX on Thursday; it appears I have some bad data for Friday.  Premiums in Shanghai are lower than last week.

* The GLD ETF lost -0.60 tons, with 741.75 tons remaining.

* GC futures are no longer in backwardation; the spread of the two front month contracts is now 0.00.

* ETF Premium/Discount to NAV; gold closing (15:59 close price on April 24th) of 1177.50 and silver 15.68:

 PHYS 9.75 -0.11% to NAV [up]
 PSLV 6.24 -0.15% to NAV [down]
 CEF 11.96 -6.45% to NAV [up]
 GTU 41.56 -4.24% to NAV [down]

ETF premiums were mixed.  PSLV is now negative, which is a relatively rare circumstance.

* Bullion Vault gold (https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) shows no signficant premiums (between $1-$2) in any one of its five (London, Toronto, Zurich, New York, Singapore) locations.

Futures Positioning

The COT report covered trading through April 28th, when gold closed at 1209.80 and silver 16.67.  The coverage period of the report did not include the $30 correction in gold that happened Wednesday/Thursday.

Managed Money had only small net changes in Managed Money positioning; more longs and shorts were opened.  No major changes; positioning is more bullish than bearish.

In silver, Managed Money continued to add to their short positions.   The higher the short positions that managed money gets, the larger the snap-back will be once it comes.  However the commercials probably need to close out a few more shorts before they are willing to launch.

Moving Average Trends [9 EMA, 50 MA, 200 MA]

There has been an improvement in the shares as well as in platinum, but gold and silver remain in fully bearish territority.

Name Chart Change 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Senior Miners GDX 0.80% -14.24% rising falling falling rising ema9 on 2015-04-27 2015-05-01
Junior Miners GDXJ 0.40% -29.21% rising falling falling rising ema9 on 2015-05-01 2015-05-01
Platinum COMEX.Platinum 0.25% -18.86% rising falling falling rising ma50 on 2015-04-28 2015-04-29
Silver Miners SIL 0.00% -27.09% rising falling falling rising ma50 on 2015-04-28 2015-05-01
Silver COMEX.Silver -0.08% -15.16% falling falling falling rising ema9 on 2015-04-30 2015-05-01
Gold COMEX.Gold -0.67% -8.46% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-04-30 2015-05-01

Summary

Dollar continued correcting this week; gold attempted a rally and failed, while silver managed to hang onto at least some of its gains.  Miners did relatively well.   Its a somewhat positive PM picture, except for gold which looks weak.

The gold/silver ratio fell this week, down -2.08 to 73.00, a relatively large move down, which is generally bullish for PM.  The GDX:$GOLD ratio moved sharply higher this week; it is now knocking on the door of its 200 MA, and it now looks bullish.   GDXJ:GDX weakened slightly and now looks somewhat bearish.  Moving averages between miners and the metal have diverged.

The COT report shows bullish potential for gold and now possibly for silver too, although it may still be a bit early.

Physical demand is neutral this week; in the west, ETF premiums were mixed, the backwardation at COMEX is now gone, and premiums in Shanghai have dropped but are still slightly positive.

Commodities continued moving slowly higher, with US-priced oil almost back to $60/bbl.

Gold continues to look weak, while silver is somewhat better and the miners have strengthened.  I'm hesitant to say we've seen the lows in the mining shares, because it just may be a "cheap oil" effect, but they are definitely looking better.  If Greece continues to avoid default, gold probably needs to find a new catalyst to move higher.

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18 Comments

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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2Q GDP estimate: +0.8%

Our friends at the Atlanta Fed have a massive spreadsheet they call GDP Now that estimates future Real GDP as the various economic timeseries are updated, and the current output of this model based on current conditions is +0.8%.  Given this, I wonder how it is that the Fed could possibly be suggesting that the factors we are seeing are transitory in nature.  Do they have a "GDP In The Future" spreadsheet that they keep secret?

Seems unlikely.  I suspect they're just trying to talk the economy higher.

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow.cfm

Latest forecast — May 1, 2015

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 0.8 percent on May 1, down slightly from 0.9 percent on April 30. The nowcast for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth fell to -20 percent following this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Oliveoilguy's picture
Oliveoilguy
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Central Fund takeover by Sprott?

Rick Rule, of Sprott Asset Management headquartered in Canada, hinted in an interview with Kng World News  http://kingworldnews.com/rick-rule-5-3-15/  that Sprott may make an offer to take over CEF. He indicated that value of the shares would sell closer to the real value of Silver and Gold. 

Anyone have any thoughts on the impact of this? CEF is a large holding for me and I can't handle any more bad surprises.   

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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Fed Earmarked Gold Update (March 2015)

Foreign ownership of gold at the Fed declined another 10 tons this month, dropping 40 tons over the past three months.  The trickle has yet to become a flood - the "walk" has yet to become a "run" - Fed earmarked gold is only down 3% year over year.  At this rate it will be 31 years before all the gold is gone.  Still, the outflow is consistent, and its worth keeping an eye on.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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CEF takeover

OOG-

I'd say Sprott takeover of CEF is good news.

I believe you will make a quick 6% on your money.  At least, that would be my guess as to how it would play out.  I've already seen a drop in the discount of CEF after the announcement.

My sense: "takevoer adds to shareholder value."

If he funds the takeover by printing shares of PSLV and PHYS and exchanging them for CEF - that would be best.  At least that's how I would do it if I were him.  CEF directors (who will lose their 0.4% annual fee/cushy gig) won't like it, but the shareholders would benefit from a drop in the discount, and he could fold in the CEF bars into the PHYS/PSLV collection.

If I had CEF - and I hold it every now and then - I'd enthusiastically vote yes, but right now I'm on the sidelines.

 

Oliveoilguy's picture
Oliveoilguy
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Thanks Dave
davefairtex wrote:

OOG-

I'd say Sprott takeover of CEF is good news.

I believe you will make a quick 6% on your money.  At least, that would be my guess as to how it would play out.  I've already seen a drop in the discount of CEF after the announcement.

My sense: "takevoer adds to shareholder value."

If he funds the takeover by printing shares of PSLV and PHYS and exchanging them for CEF - that would be best.  At least that's how I would do it if I were him.  CEF directors (who will lose their 0.4% annual fee/cushy gig) won't like it, but the shareholders would benefit from a drop in the discount, and he could fold in the CEF bars into the PHYS/PSLV collection.

If I had CEF - and I hold it every now and then - I'd enthusiastically vote yes, but right now I'm on the sidelines.

 

I respect your opinion...Appreciate the insight.

Mark Cochrane's picture
Mark Cochrane
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Must be expecting a rip roaring second half.....(cough, cough)

Dave,

If we are supposed to get our forever promised 3% annual economic growth in the US for 2015, with 0.2% in the first quarter and 0.8% expected in the second, does that mean that they are now expecting us to have 5.5% growth over the entire second half of the year? Seems a bit of a stretch....

When was the last year the official government predicted annual GDP growth guesstimate came in under the real value? The economists should be issued pom-poms to facilitate their cheerleading. Why does anyone believe anything from an organization which feigns surprise each year when winter actually happens?

Boggles the mind.

Mark

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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Only those who can stay rational...

Will be able to maintain earned wealth through the coming storm.  The agents of the system want to put a worm in your brain;

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-03/why-deflation-unlikely

first comments from the article;

Publicus

Publicus's picture

So many people ruining their lives with the barbaric metal.

Sun, 05/03/2015 - 16:53 | 6056862 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

If you listen to the constant pumping of gold & silver by the likes of Eric King and Jim Sinclair, I agree about people ruining their lives.

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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KWN and the next gold move

JimH-

I think gold has real potential to pop if/when bail-ins start to happen in Europe.  Likewise, negative rates are also gently encouraging people to buy gold and other assets outside the banking system.

But KWN has been terrible about timing advice.  They had you buying gold at 1920 and silver at 50.  That's not a great trade.  Anyone who did that is looking at massive losses now.

I believe the timing for a real turn in gold is approaching.  A lot of macro things are aligning.  We may see gold and the dollar rise together as the preferred safe haven trade - we got a preview of this back in January when Syriza was first elected.

The gold bull this time around won't be about a commodity inflation cycle like it was last time.  This next time, it will be about European money fleeing bank deposits and sovereign debt.  That's my belief anyway.

However the gang at KWN lack all sense of nuance.  Its all gold all the time; gold is always a good buy at KWN.  Anyone who actually uses them for advice as to when to buy and most especially when to sell is a hopeless optimist - kind of like someone who might be waiting for our friendly Fed to tell us when to sell equities (i.e. never).

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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Price is manipulated, so we must look elsewhere for data...

When you look at the chart of China's (private) Gold accumulation... it suggests that they see the event horizon for the fiat currency endgame approaching.  Regardless of underlying price trend, they just by more, and more, and more.  The price of Gold is determined today by supply vs demand for paper futures contracts, and the bullion banks can print as many fresh contracts as they want, at any time they want.  Rather than looking at price trend then, I think it behooves the rational actor to look at the physical accumulation trends of the biggest physical accumulators.

Regarding my last post.... I wonder how many lives this Gold bullion has ruined in China?        

 

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NPuu1WV3sTo/VUQ9NJMDAiI/AAAAAAAA_aA/3gsIStzelUM/s1600/SGEDeliveries01m.php.png

Jbarney's picture
Jbarney
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Event Horizon

I'd been thinking on and off during the weekend about JP Morgan silver purchases published recently.  I think Event Horizon is a great way to describe what some people see "out there".  

2012: JP Morgan had 5 million ounces of silver

2015: JP Morgan has 55 million ounces of silver....(something like 8 million in the last 2 weeks)

I am paraphrasing here....but the quote associated with these purchases was something to the tune of....

"There will be another crisis at some point"

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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printing paper contracts

JimH-

The price of Gold is determined today by supply vs demand for paper futures contracts, and the bullion banks can print as many fresh contracts as they want, at any time they want.  Rather than looking at price trend then, I think it behooves the rational actor to look at the physical accumulation trends of the biggest physical accumulators.

So Jim, this same "paper controls price" condition has been true for the last 40 years.  This is not a new development that just started happening 4 years ago.

The way the market operates hasn't changed.  Why the sudden blame on "paper" after 11 years of bull move?  Might we blame the bull move on paper too?

Just perhaps, goldbugs promised the non-religious western gold buyers hyperinflation, but what we got instead was deflation.  The disappointed non-religious western gold buyers sold their gold, and haven't returned.  I know, my thesis lacks a visible Evil Scapegoat, and so its not nearly as appealing. It also points a finger at the goldbug press which promised imminent hyperinflation, but so far has been just dead wrong.

Goldbug-think: when gold rises, its because of virtuous physical buying.  When gold falls, its about evil nekkid paper shorts.

This is what I find objectionable about many goldbugs - a lack of intellectual honesty.  They want so badly to be right, they ignore basic logic.  If the market has been 'paper' for the past 40 years, through bull markets and bear markets, then the issue isn't paper, its demand.

The west was promised hyperinflation, we didn't get it, so westerners sold the gold they bought during 2009-2011.

Its just that simple.

Going forward: don't focus on the "paper" issue, focus on what will bring the the western gold buyer back to the marketplace.  Once they return, we're off to the races.

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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Intellectual Honesty

Speaking of,  "basic logic" (notice how I quoted you there Dave) ... we have fiat money systems that are hopelessly far down the debt overload pathway, negative interest rates, and increasing levels of monetary tyranny (i.e. cashless society) and yet, against all signs that physical demand for the only functioning non fiat currency alternatives is robust.. .price just can't seem to go anywhere.  Basic logic would suggest that price should go up.. that the value of the non-printable safe haven currency should go up in this situation.  

Maybe it is those paper contracts.  Maybe the one lacking intellectual honesty is the one who cannot wrap their mind(s) around a chart that says that the most shorted "commodities" in the world just so happen to be those which can be found in sovereign coin form suitable for long term savings.  Those commodities that fulfill all the requirements for money.  Those commodities that compete with the infinitely printed fiat currencies we use today.  The BIS and the West central banks can't allow for a fair competition to break out, now can they?

Do you think this was a normal Hedge fund at work Dave?

It's 830ET, do you know where your ubiquitous precious metal seller-in-size is? At 834ET, someone "special" decided it was the perfect time to sell $590 million worth of gold futures...

Gold...

20150501_gold_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-01/its-gold-and-silver-slamming-time?

But I know you won't actually address this chart Dave.. there is no way to do so.  You will shift the argument some other way I am sure in order to convince our readers that there never really is a good time to buy Gold.  Oh yeah.. a good time is after the hyperinflation starts, right?          

 

Jim H's picture
Jim H
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If you want to protect yourself from the Western fiat overlords.

Do as the Russians do - H/T Ed Steer;

Well-known Moscow journalist Dmitry Kalinichenko expressed it well:  “Very few people understand what Putin is doing at the moment. And almost no one understands what he will do in the future.  No matter how strange it may seem, but right now, Putin is selling Russian oil and gas only for physical gold.

Nonetheless, the above comments provide valuable insights into what President Putin’s plan is most likely to be…and how it will eventually and materially benefit the Russian economy.

Russia more than tripled its gold hoard since 2005 and holds the most since at least 1993, IMF data show. The country is boosting Central Bank reserves to diversify foreign reserves with a view to resolving issues related to ruble liquidity, central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in February.

Additionally, Kazakhstan’s gold hoard jumped 33 percent in the past 12 months, data compiled by Bloomberg show.  Kazakhstan is an ally of Russia…and is a former member of the Soviet Union (U.S.S.R).

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/putin-czar-natural-gas-crude-oil-urani...

Odd... don't Kazakhstan's central bankers know that Western Gold owners sold their Gold and that it won't be desirable until Western fiat currencies start to hyperinflate?  Whats the hurry? 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/putin-czar-natural-gas-crude-oil-urani...

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
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oh Jim

But I know you won't actually address this chart Dave.. there is no way to do so.

I've addressed that chart - or ones just like it - more times than I can count.  You just aren't interested in my explanations.  You only present such charts when gold drops, never when it rises.  But there are dozens and dozens of examples of gold doing exactly the same thing - but rising, rather than falling.

That's what I mean about intellectual honesty.  You are only appalled at how horrible the paper markets are when gold drops in price.  When it rises, all is well.  And the markets are paper both when gold rises, and when it falls.

So why is the market essentially ignoring the buying in China?  China isn't big enough, by itself, to move the market.  There are three big markets: Asia, Europe, and the US.  Europe and the US are more or less offline right now.  Once either one gets more excited about gold, then we should see some fireworks.

You will shift the argument some other way I am sure in order to convince our readers that there never really is a good time to buy Gold.  Oh yeah.. a good time is after the hyperinflation starts, right?

There is never a good time to buy gold?  I'm sure you didn't mean that.  There are good times to buy gold.

Like, when we start seeing actual signs of inflation, rather than just the continuous prognostications of imminent hyperinflation from our friends at Shadowstats, or the continuous (and incorrect) COMEX default predictions from goldbug news.

Another good time to buy gold is when we start seeing signs of safe haven flows.  That is what has my attention right now: gold rising alongside the USD.  I'm collecting the threads right now, maybe I'll write an article about it sometime soon.

But no, I don't buy gold based on goldbug alarmists who are the Golden Stopped Clock - right by accident twice per day because for them every day is a good day to buy gold.  No, I prefer to wait for evidence.  Weimar hyperinflation didn't happen overnight.  Neither did Zimbabwe hyperinflation.  Neither (it turns out) did the 1933 US gold revaluation happen overnight.  It was telegraphed for months, and front-run by anyone with access to the international markets.  Maybe I'll write an article about that one too.

The funny thing is, goldbugs are screaming we should buy gold now, for whatever reason is popular today.  They were screaming the same exact thing back in 2011, for a different reason, right at the top at $1910/oz.  Same thing back in 1980, right at the top.  (That video of Doug Casey from that time was simply priceless). 

Once the market turns, and gold starts rising again, they'll all take victory laps saying "we are so clever, we predicted this outcome."  Sure, if you predict something daily, you'll be right eventually.

Things move in cycles.  When gold's time comes again, it will move higher, and not before.

 

Denny Johnson's picture
Denny Johnson
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Posts: 348
recent insight

It seems that Jim has forgotten his recent insight:

Dave, you have wonderful rhetorical skills... making me seem silly

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Some important points on gold...
davefairtex wrote:

(...)

The gold bull this time around won't be about a commodity inflation cycle like it was last time.  This next time, it will be about European money fleeing bank deposits and sovereign debt.  That's my belief anyway.

(...)

A few points I'd like to make here:

  1. Anybody buying gold to 'get rich' had better avail themselves of a disciplined trading model.  The folks at KWN are not traders, not by a long shot.  Gold is just another thing out of a very large universe of potentially tradeable items.  Not sure I'd pick it as a trading device because the market for it is well and truly broken for little guys...it's a professional playpen only.  That's my view.
  2. Gold is not a good inflation hedge, never has been.  Instead it's a super-duper safe haven asset, especially in this world where bail-ins are now part of the banking landscape and every other financial holding besides gold is somebody else's liability.
  3. the time to buy your gold core holdings is now.  It's always "now."  If you don't have them you should.  When this puppy cracks and the big money decides to go after gold, with the same fervor and deep pockets that it is chasing $100M apartments and rare art, most little folks will be priced out or shoved aside in the mad scramble.  
  4. Luckily, I think that move will be telegraphed to us alert folks with enough time in advance to hop on that train.
debu's picture
debu
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Harder to Know When to Sell than When to Buy

Luckily, I think that move will be telegraphed to us alert folks with enough time in advance to hop on that train.

Assuming scenario 3 plays out as expected, it would seem to me that the more crucial issue will be when to hop off that train.

This is going to be very difficult to do if gold, after all these years of disappointment, finally begins to perform well. (I suspect I may not have been the only one who failed to sell his silver as it approached $50.)

So, actually, it is a sell signal that I am counting on from Chris (and Dave and Jim?).

CrLaan's picture
CrLaan
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Posts: 54
Don't count on luck when

Don't count on luck when signs are telegraphed to us little shrimps. Your USD purchasing power will be near zero at that moment. Buy as much as you understand and don't look back. Like a no-dig gardening method: enjoy.

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