PM Daily Market Commentary - 4/22/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Thu, Apr 23, 2015 - 3:47am

Gold plunged -15.20 to 1186.60 on heavy volume, while silver fell -0.22 to 15.76 on heavy volume as well.  Gold and silver started to sell off a few hours before the NY open, and the move lower really accelerated immediately following a very positive Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 EST.

Gold looks to be breaking lower along with silver; support for gold is at 1180.  In the gold chart below, you can see a bearish-looking volume pattern in the past two weeks: when down-day volume exceeds up-day volume, that signals distribution.  Support for gold is at 1180, but I'm not sure it will hold.

The miners were hammered today, with GDX dropping -3.30% on moderately heavy volume, while GDXJ fell -3.275 on moderate volume.  Miners did not like gold's sell-off.  However, the short term uptrend line for the miners remains intact, at least for now.

The dollar fell -0.04 to 98.14.  The buck was down much further during the day, hitting 97.61 at one point, but managed to rally back to almost even.  Until the buck breaks 100 on the upside or 97.23 (the 50 MA) to the downside, the dollar - along with pretty much everything else - is just trading in a range.

SPX staged a decent rally today after being down in the futures market prior to the open; SPX closed up +10.67 to 2107.96.  By end of day SPX was quite close to breaking above the previous high, but was unable to do so.  VIX fell -0.54 to 12.71.

Bond ETF TLT was hurt badly today, dropping -1.53% and breaking below its recent consolidation range.  If bonds have decided on their near-term direction, equity market probably makes new highs.

The CRB (commodity index) dropped gently, falling -0.12%.  CRB: still in its short-term uptrend.

WTIC was off slightly, down -0.09 to 56.22.  The Petroleum Status report (every Wednesday at 10:30 EDT) showed yet another inventory build, this time of 5.3 million barrels because of higher imports.  My sense: traders are cashing in on the contango in oil: buying it today, selling it forward in the futures markets, paying storage costs, and pocketing the difference.

Gold's moment of decision appears to have been resolved with a move lower, not higher.  Gold appears to be following silver down, dragging the miners along for the ride.  The dollar has yet to show its hand, but it is not looking particularly strong right now.  A lot of things are yet unresolved, but the currents are leaning towards: gold & silver lower, equities higher, bonds lower, at least in the near term.

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