PM Daily Market Commentary - 2/23/2015

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Tue, Feb 24, 2015 - 3:42am

Gold fell -2.00 to 1201.30 on moderate volume, while silver rose +0.06 to 16.29 on moderate volume.   Both metals were hit in London trading with a decent-sized spike down making new lows, but then both recovered just prior to the NY session open.  Both gold and silver printed doji candles, which could signal a bullish reversal.

The initial recovery off the lows in London was quite strong, but neither metal could hold its gains into the close in NY, which calls into question the enthusiasm of the buyers at these prices.  To confirm the reversal, gold needs a close tomorrow above 1211, while silver needs a close above 16.60.

Mining shares bifurcated, with GDX rallying +0.44% on light volume, while GDXJ dropped -0.31% also on light volume.  Junior miners continue looking weaker than the senior miners, which is bearish for PM.

You can see in the table below that the only bright spot in PM are the senior miners - and even they are not doing all that well.

Name Chart Change 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Senior Miners GDX 0.44% -22.58% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2015-02-05 2015-02-23
Silver COMEX.Silver -0.12% -26.29% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-02-13 2015-02-23
Junior Miners GDXJ -0.31% -40.75% falling falling falling rising ma50 on 2015-02-19 2015-02-23
Gold COMEX.Gold -0.34% -10.31% falling falling falling falling ma50 on 2015-02-10 2015-02-23
Platinum COMEX.Platinum -0.56% -19.04% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-02-05 2015-02-23
Silver Miners SIL -0.64% -36.10% falling falling falling rising ma50 on 2015-02-18 2015-02-23

The USD rose today, climbing +0.25 to 94.68, edging higher but still remaining within its recent trading range. Commodity currencies did poorly today.  Only the pound is hinting that it might be ready to rise vs the dollar. The mostly-solid wall of green & gold below indicates that the buck is in a strong uptrend relative to most of the other currencies, and attests to the strength of the dollar rally over the last eight months.  A rallying dollar is (generally speaking) not supportive for PM.

Name Chart Change 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Russian Ruble USD.RUB 3.04% 79.43% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2015-02-20 2015-02-23
Swiss Franc USD.CHF 1.11% 7.02% rising falling rising falling ma50 on 2015-02-22 2015-02-23
Australian Dollar USD.AUD 0.47% 15.18% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2015-02-22 2015-02-23
Euro USD.EUR 0.41% 21.16% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2015-02-22 2015-02-23
Canadian Dollar USD.CAD 0.32% 13.14% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2015-02-18 2015-02-23
Indian Rupee USD.INR 0.08% 0.42% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2015-02-18 2015-02-23
Chinese Yuan USD.CNY 0.03% 2.61% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2015-02-13 2015-02-23
Japanese Yen USD.JPY -0.12% 16.07% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2015-02-18 2015-02-23
Pound Sterling USD.GBP -0.45% 7.58% falling falling rising falling ma50 on 2015-02-09 2015-02-23

SPX traded within a narrow range today, closing off -0.64 to 2109.66.  It wasn't a very eventful day.  VIX rose +0.26 to 14.56.

Long bond ETF TLT had a good day, rising +1.15%.  TLT is quite close to breaking out of its recent consolidation, and is right up against its 9 EMA.  A close above 128 would mark a swing low.  If bonds rally, SPX likely falls.

The CRB (commodity index) continues its retreat, dropping -1.24%.  Mostly that was due to energy.

WTIC fell -1.37 [-2.70%] to 49.38, breaking below its uptrend line and looking like it may be headed for a re-test of the lows.

You can see below that the whole commodity complex is a sea of red and grey.  That's the sign of a long downtrend, with the one exception being the recent bounce in energy, which now appears to be weakening.  While PM doesn't move in lock step with the other commodity groups - when they drop, PM feels the influence and tends to drop as well.

Name Chart Change 52w ch EMA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Industrial Metal GSCI.IM -0.13% -10.19% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-02-13 2015-02-23
Precious Metal GSCI.PM -0.32% -12.31% falling falling falling falling ma50 on 2015-02-13 2015-02-23
Livestock GSCI.LV -0.33% -6.87% falling falling falling falling ema9 on 2015-02-19 2015-02-23
Agriculture GSCI.AG -0.96% -20.06% falling falling falling rising ema9 on 2015-02-19 2015-02-23
Energy GSCI.EN -1.82% -45.60% falling falling falling rising ema9 on 2015-02-20 2015-02-23

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