PM Daily Market Commentary - 11/20/2014

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Fri, Nov 21, 2014 - 1:42am

Gold rose +11.50 to 1194.00 on heavy volume, while silver rose +0.12 to 16.23 on moderate volume.  Gold recovered most of its losses from yesterday, while silver continues to slowly improve.  Both metals remain above their EMA-9, which means they remain in an uptrend.

The USD dropped -0.04 to 87.70, dropping just below its EMA-9.   The dollar continues chopping sideways, giving us no clues as to which way it will head next.  The only constant is the dropping yen, which fell -0.26% today.

Mining shares recovered somewhat from their losses of yesterday, with GDX up +2.71% on moderate volume, and GDXJ rose +4.55% on heavy volume.  Right now I'm seeing a mix of good news and bad news in the mining shares.  The good news is, both mining ETFs remain above their respective EMA-9 averages, which means the miners are still in an uptrend.  The bad news is, the volume on today's rally is a whole lot lower than yesterday's drop, and the rebound is a lot less enthusiastic than the original drop.  High volume sell-offs and low volume rebounds are typically bearish signals.

Still, the EMA-9 is acting as support, and as long as that is happening, even though the miners are flashing a warning, the uptrend remains in place.

SPX rose +4.03 to 2052.75.  SPX remains above its EMA-9 as well, as it has done for the past five weeks.  It The rally in SPX has been strong and steady off the 1820 lows.  The VIX dropped -0.38 to 13.58. 

TLT rose +0.52% - it seems like TLT is up one day, and down the next, resulting in a very narrow trading range for the past five weeks.  The bias seems slightly bullish, but just slightly.  JNK dropped a bit, off -0.05%.

The commodity index rose +0.57% and now seems to be forming a very shallow ascending triangle pattern, which is bullish.  Ever so slowly, the commodity index is climbing off its lows.  WTIC staged a massive rally today, rising +2.02 to 76.36 and closing above its EMA-9 for the first time in seven weeks.  It appears that WTIC has marked a swing low, although it has done that before and failed to rally afterwards.  Still - its a positive sign for commodities, the first one in a while.  Brent rose +1.23 to 79.33, lagging behind WTIC.

If oil can form a low, that would be good for commodities in general, and for PM specifically.  Let's see if oil can actually string together two up days in a row tomorrow...

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