PM Daily Market Commentary - 10/29/2014

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Wed, Oct 29, 2014 - 8:04pm

Gold was hammered following the FOMC minutes release at 1400 EDT, closing off -16.20 to 1211.80 on moderately heavy volume; silver dropped -0.10 to 17.08, a proportionally much smaller decline.   Silver is actually doing better than gold - causing the gold/silver ratio to drop -0.51 to 70.95.

The dollar shot higher at 1400 EDT.  I didn't see anything in the minutes that was dollar positive, but something about the FOMC minutes made people want to buy the buck.  It closed up +0.63 to 86.08, blasting through its EMA-9 and closing above the previous "lower high", thus invalidating the relatively new dollar downtrend.  At this point the buck looks strong, which is bad for gold.  Currently, when the dollar drops, gold drops too; when the dollar rises, then gold drops even faster.  Right now, gold is weak, and a rising dollar just makes it even weaker.

Mining shares basically collapsed today following the FOMC minutes release, with traders bailing out left and right.  GDX was hammered for a -4.34% loss on very heavy volume, and GDXJ was pounded even harder, dropping -7.20% on very heavy volume as well.  Both miner ETFs made new lows - and also broke below the lows dating back to December 2013.  GDX:$GOLD ratio also made new multi-year lows as well.  Altogether, this says traders are completely uninterested in holding mining shares, and yet on the daily chart we are showing only "mildly oversold" conditions - which tells me we could see two or three more days of selling before it is exhausted.  I hope it doesn't happen, but it certainly could.

SPX made a new high in morning trading, only to fail and fall back.  When 1400 EDT rolled around, SPX sold off along with gold but found support at its 50 MA and managed to mostly recover by end of day, closing down -2.75 to 1982.30.  At this point, SPX is mildly overbought.  VIX was up today +0.76 to 15.15.

Commodities continued rallying today, closing up +0.73%.  We may have a low in the commodity sector.  WTIC was up +0.37 to 81.95, while Brent rose +1.09 to 87.12, closing above its EMA-9 for the first time in months.  Brent is forming a rough ascending triangle pattern, which usually ends in a breakout higher.  We may be ending the oil downturn.  I know I've said that before, but the odds are improving with this pattern and the break above the EMA-9 in Brent.  Rising oil helps silver - I'm guessing that's why we see the gold/silver ratio dropping today.

My sense is, rallying commodity and oil prices have helped support silver, while gold is looking very weak.  The rallying dollar is bad news for gold, and mining shares are totally unloved right now.  Someday traders will like them again, but as to when that day will come, I can't say.  Back in December 2013, GDX:$GOLD broke out before the miners themselves moved higher - perhaps this will happen again.

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6 Comments

HughK's picture
HughK
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 6 2012
Posts: 760
Blood on the streets

Or, rather, blood in the mines:

Some of these companies are approaching lows of Oct. 2008.  (Although many others are not.)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

XAU is two bucks and some change above its Oct. 2008 low:

I'm looking forward to the commentary tomorrow, Dave. :)

Hugh

P.S. For those following the Swiss gold initiative, a pro-initiative newspaper style mailing was received by our school today and put in my mailbox.  That probably means each home and apartment in our town got one.  

 

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2379
Swiss shenanigans.....

Hugh said, 

P.S. For those following the Swiss gold initiative, a pro-initiative newspaper style mailing was received by our school today and put in my mailbox.  That probably means each home and apartment in our town got one. 

Egon von Greyerz has been accepting donations to help get the word out in his home country, Switzerland, over social networks, etc... and today, the authorities froze his paypal account.  Dirty tricks by TPTB.  He needs to begin accepting Bitcoin I guess  : )   Just goes to show you how afraid of PM's the central bankers are.  Odd how the Swiss bankers care about Gold, but the FED does not, right Dave?

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/10/30_P...

As you know, Eric, I have been involved in the Swiss Gold Initiative.  The Swiss National Bank is opposing this initiative.  They have admitted that it stops their ability to manipulate markets.  The campaign is going well.  The public has generously donated because of KWN and other sites.  But that came to a stop two days ago when Paypal closed the account for donations and they froze the funds that were in that account without any warning.

So unfortunately the campaign cannot receive some of those donations which were just frozen.  Paypal will not even answer the questions we are asking them, but I assume the money will be returned to the donors.  Clearly the powers that be did not want the campaign to receive this money.  We will keep on fighting for this campaign because gold will always have an advantage over worthless printed pieces of paper that governments and central banks create at will in order to manipulate markets.”

 

 

HughK's picture
HughK
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 6 2012
Posts: 760
This recipient is currently unable to receive money

 

 

JimH wrote:

Egon von Greyerz has been accepting donations to help get the word out in his home country, Switzerland, over social networks, etc... and today, the authorities froze his paypal account.  Dirty tricks by TPTB. 

Yep...

 

Bankers Slave's picture
Bankers Slave
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 26 2012
Posts: 519
I need to

close my Paypal account. It reeks of totalitarian control and manipulation. Thanks for this information. The convenience of Paypal like everything else these days was too good to be true. 

sand_puppy's picture
sand_puppy
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 13 2011
Posts: 1755
Who "owns" your private stuff?

This brings up the issue of ownership/control of "our" stuff.  We sometimes think that these items are public and transparent.  But when push comes to shove, they are private. Much of what we commonly think of as "our private material" or "public," (in the sense that a public park is public), are actually owned and controlled by a corporate cartel.  Some examples:

1.  Your Paypal account--Can be closed and blocked by a financial corporation and / or seized by the IRS or DEA (without court order, conviction or evidence).

2.  Your bank checking account--Is an unsecured loan to a bank that can be confiscated should the bank falter (a bail-in) or confiscated by the IRS or DEA.  Your financial / banking records are continuously open to government review.

3.  Your facebook page--is owned by a corporation, facebook, and everything posted there can be data mined and sold for commercial purposes and governmental surveillance.  The rich photo records posted on facebook can be used to educate the facial recognition software so that you can be recognized easily by street cameras.  Anything can be place in your feed, such as advertisements.  The filtering algorithms that govern what you see are written and modified by the owning corporation.

4.  Cash carried in your car--can be confiscated without due process.

5.  Your free Google email account (containing "your private correspondence") resides on the Google server and is the property of Google.  It can be analyzed, sold and shared with anyone it chooses. 

6.   Your cell phone and the data that it holds can be seized and searched during a traffic stop.

7.   Your cell phone conversations are the property of Verizon and the owners of the private, for profit fiber-optic communications grid.  They can and are sold to government spy agencies, political parties and corporations.

8.  The cell phone network is the property of Verizon, et al.  It can be shut down in areas where there are demonstrations going on to impair coordinated movement and to prevent uploading real-time photos from the demonstration.

9.  Your cell phone tracking log knows where you are and have been.  Your location data is the property of the telecommunications company and the government spy agencies. It can be sold for profit and data-mined.

10.  Your car can be searched at any time.  A drug sniffing dog (called "a search warrant on a leash") signals that it detects the scent of drugs in your vehicle providing probable cause.

11.  Your medical records, though ostensibly closely regulated by privacy laws, once submitted to the insurance company for billing become the property of the insurance company.  This information is data-mined by third parties employed by the insurance industry to build a profile of medical risk used later to deny insurance to high utilizeres.  And being an electronic record, your entire medical record is cc'ed to the NSA and its many partners (IRS, DEA, FBI).  

12.  Your home can be broken into by a SWAT team that blows through the lock on your front door with a shotgun blast and rushes in with drawn weapons.  Resisting arrest is illegal, roughing you up is normal and shooting you during the raid is justified ("he made a sudden move").  Should they "find drugs," even planted drugs, your home is confiscated.  (You thought that paying down your mortgage was a good long term financial move.  Oops.)

13.  Your search engine results are filtered and ordered by algorithms.  These algorithms are written by people employed by for profit corporations whose interest are partially aligned with yours, and partially aligned with others.  Some types of information is not easily locatable and others are sandwiched between derogatory viewpoints.  Some information will not show up in any search unless the URL is typed in exactly.  The "finding" and "not finding" of information is a powerful tool for shaping one's world view.

14.  Reddit prioritizes according to its own process.  Some stories do not seem to rise in ranking. Other's rise rapidly and return to zero periodically.

-----

The two themes here are:  

1.  Government/private-cartel ownership and control of things previously assumed to be "private."

2.  Private corporate control of things previously assumed to be "public."

Bankers Slave's picture
Bankers Slave
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 26 2012
Posts: 519
There is only one thing

that we really need to remember...its the name JOHN/JANE DOE, a legal title used unknowingly or otherwise, that permits us to engage in the commerce of the nation state by virtue of the NAME being representative of a corporation (person= actor on the stage wearing a mask). 

As long as we admit to being the NAME (person) operating with the use of the legal title JOHN/JANE DOE, we and everything that we posses is controlled by the state 100%. The title belongs to the UK/USA corporation Ltd. The birth certificate is prima facia evidence of a contract/bond/corporate identity entered into at birth without full disclosure or your consent. It has been a massive global scam.

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