PM Daily Market Commentary - 6/3/2014

davefairtex
By davefairtex on Wed, Jun 4, 2014 - 2:26am

Gold ... wait for it ... closed up +2.10 to 1245.00 on moderate volume, while silver was up +0.05 to 18.80 also on moderate volume.  Gold traded mostly sideways in a narrow range, at one point touching a new low of 1240, but rebounded quickly and ending up actually in the green.  Silver looked a bit more positive than gold, mainly because it managed to avoid making a new low.

The reality is, though, both gold and silver are deep in oversold territory after a long string of down days.  My sense is, the previous longs have mostly been stopped out, buyers are hesitantly starting to appear (at gold 1240) and the shorts are holding back, perhaps waiting for a pop higher that they can sell.  It's certainly not bullish - but we just might get that bounce I've been waiting for quite soon.  Having said that - waiting for the market to actually SHOW you is safest.  Its all fine to "think" something like this, but that's no substitute for actual buyers showing up and pushing prices higher.

The buck was off a bit, down -0.08 to 80.60.  The dollar is actually fairly overbought right now, and I keep expecting it to take a rest - but we have this thing in europe going on: ECB Chairman Draghi has been hinting for weeks that he's going to start printing money in one form or another.  Trial balloons have been floated: ECB rates will go negative, LTRO will be restarted, all sorts of talk has happened, and this has moved the euro lower without Mr Draghi having to act at all.  But the rubber will meet the road Thursday at 0745 EDT, when the ECB announces its rate decisions.  Then we'll get to see Mr Draghi at a press conference at 0830 EDT.  England is coming out with their own rate decisions a bit earlier, at 0700 EDT.  It will be an exciting day.  So likely, the buck won't do much until after this meeting.

With gold oversold, one might wonder what would happen if the ECB really did sign up to print a significant amount of money.  I'm not sure I'd want to be one of those heavily short Managed Money folks with the greedy bankers potentially standing by to run a Barclay's Special Short Squeeze on them at 0745 EDT.

GDX closed up +0.36% on moderate volume, and GDXJ closed up +0.90% also on moderate volume.  Miners were hammered early in morning trading, but rebounded strongly in the afternoon to close green.  There do seem to be dip-buyers these days in the mining shares, which is bullish and nice to see.  GDX is forming a 50 cent trading range (22-22.50) with a break above 22.50 being a buy signal, especially if it happened on some volume.  There does seem to be increased enthusiasm for the miners than for gold, at least in the past few days.  Something to watch.

SPX closed down just a touch, off less than a point to 1924.  No new all time high!  VIX climbed to 11.87, but it remains still quite low.

Bonds dropped hard today, TLT off -1.23%, blowing through its 20 EMA with some real force for the first time in two months.  Is this the high for the bond market rally for the moment?  Perhaps money will scamper back to Europe to front-run the ECB for a while.  Or maybe those paperbugs will be fleeing into gold!

Clearly traders are taking money off the table in treasurys.

 

 

9 Comments

Jim H's picture
Jim H
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 2391
Dave : )

You used the word, "paperbugs".  Thank you... I notice these things as you know. 

Interesting things happening in China regarding the re-hypothecation of physical assets;

  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-04/china-scrambling-after-discover...

The rehypothecated catastrophe that we discussed in great detail here (copper financing), here (all commodities), and here (global contagion) appears to be gathering speed as the China's northeastern port of Qingdao has halted shipments of aluminum and copper due to an investigation by authorities after they found "there is a discrepancy in metal that should be there and metal that is actually there."

Atreat's picture
Atreat
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 4 2011
Posts: 33
Off Subject but looking for some information

I have been unable to access Mike Maloney's website at goldsilver.com.  I've purchased some gold and silver through this site and am unable to access information on it.  Any info is appreciated.

 

Thanks

 

Alan

thc0655's picture
thc0655
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 27 2010
Posts: 1718
goldsilver.com

I can't get on the last 2 days with my smart phone, but I can with my desktop.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5979
No problem from here...

I can't get on the last 2 days with my smart phone, but I can with my desktop.

[/quote]

Just tried on my desktop...no problems at all.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
paperbugs & copper

JimH-

Re: Paperbugs!  Glad you enjoyed it.  I put those things in there just for you, you know.  :-)

Its tongue in cheek - but actually not tongue in cheek either.  The big guys are so big, they really have nowhere else to go.  Paper is their only option.  Fortunately, we have options.  One of the few benefits to being a small mammal scuttling beneath the feet of the T-Rexes of the world.

I saw copper lost it a bit yesterday - down -1.5% on some pretty good volume.  If it continues lower through its 50 MA, that might mean its a serious thing.  Since mid-March when copper bottomed, there seems to be a sense that the Chinese government is playing its usual trick of supporting the economy whenever things get a bit rocky - which seemed to put a bid under both the chinese equity market (FXI) as well as copper ($COPPER).  In the past few days, copper is starting to diverge...if this continues, it will be interesting which turns out to be right - copper or FXI.

chickenlittle's picture
chickenlittle
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 20 2011
Posts: 3
Login / Support problems

Hello

I'm afraid I have been having the same problem. I cannot login to enrolled area from iPhone or iPad.

i have tried contacting support via the /contact/support form

Also direct via email to [email protected] and [email protected] addresses, but all mail is returned with a "mailbox quota exceeded" error message.

I'm very sorry to bother you with this, but can you please tell me how to get support?

Many thanks, Edward

 

This is my original support message:

 

Hello,
 
I have the same recurring problem when trying to access Insider / Enrollment information via my iPhone / iPad:
 
 
I receive an email from PeakProsperity
 
Click on a story link (eg Off The Cuff)
 
Get taken to the relevant page on the website
 
Get asked for and Enter username and password (Sign In)
 
Get taken off the story page and on to the My Account Page!?
 
Tap on INSIDER link - find the story page
 
Get asked for and Enter username and password (Sign In) AGAIN
 
Receive Uh, Oh!  Message, which tells me I'm not authorised to view the content, because it haven't paid...
 
 
I just checked my account, and I'm being charged $240 per annum. Surely this shouldn't be happening?
 
Please confirm receipt of this message, and suggest a solution.
 
With thanks and best wishes,
Time2help's picture
Time2help
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 9 2011
Posts: 2892
Login Issue
chickenlittle wrote:
I receive an email from PeakProsperity
 
Click on a story link (eg Off The Cuff)
 
Get taken to the relevant page on the website
 
Get asked for and Enter username and password (Sign In)
 
Get taken off the story page and on to the My Account Page!?
 
Tap on INSIDER link - find the story page
 
Get asked for and Enter username and password (Sign In) AGAIN
 
Receive Uh, Oh!  Message, which tells me I'm not authorised to view the content, because it haven't paid...
 
 
The same things happens whenever you try to login to PP via an Onion (TOR) browser.  Is there a way to fix this?
 
Thanks,
 
T2H
Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Offline)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3214
Bug squashed!

As of 30 mins ago, I *think* we just squashed this bug -- one that had been vexing us for way too long.

Finding the root cause proved extremely (and expensively) elusive, and I won't bore folks with the details. But if those of you who were encountering this issue can let me know if you're indeed no longer experiencing it, that would be very helpful.

cheers,

A

 

chickenlittle's picture
chickenlittle
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 20 2011
Posts: 3
Bug squashed!

Hi Adam

just to confirm that, yes, I can now login - although it does still take two attempts.

Nonetheless, that is MUCH better than before, so well done and thank you!

Edward

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