PM Daily Market Commentary - 4/8/2014

By davefairtex on Wed, Apr 9, 2014 - 12:04am

Gold closed up +11.10 to 1308 on moderate volume; silver was up +0.20 to 20.06 on heavy volume.  Both metals broke higher towards the end of the Tokyo session with gold in the lead.  Gold managed to set a new cycle high, while silver did not.  Neither metal held onto all its gains, retreating into the close.  While PM doesn't look like its a house afire, it does seem to be chewing higher, although I would have liked to see more movement on a day where the buck was so badly hurt, and more volume.  And a more bullish close, preferably above its 50 MA.

The buck was hammered today, down -0.50 to 79.83 blowing through its 50 day MA and is back to looking bearish.  The buck tipped over in asia near the end of trading in Japan, and it just kept sinking all the way through the close in NY.  Mostly this was a positive yen story - the Yen was up +1.28%.  In my happy world this should have led to a big rise in gold, but that's not what happened.  The dollar's big move helped, but only a little bit.

SPX found support on the 1840 support level - it knifed below support for a few minutes early in the session, and that brought out the dip-buyers, who pushed it right back up into positive territory on some pretty good volume.  Tomorrow, if the market closes above today's high, its yet another buy signal in SPX, but its probably prudent to watch the market leader stocks to see if they are confirming the bounce.

GDX had a good day, up +2.56% on moderate volume; its cousin GDXJ was up +4.06% on moderately heavy volume.  GDX broke above its consolidation box and its 200 MA, which all looks pretty bullish.  GDXJ is lagging a bit behind, as it still remains below its 200 MA.  The ratios are slowly improving.

Commodities were up pretty strongly, +0.86% and look to be heading for another breakout.  Continued moves up in commodities will help to drag gold higher just on the correlation alone.  Copper continued moving up as well, up to 3.06 which is the highest close it has had for a month.

This is really a mixed picture.  Price & volume on PM is just so-so, GDX too is looking just all right, but the continued move higher in commodities feels bullish.


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