PM Daily Market Commentary - 11/13/2013

By davefairtex on Wed, Nov 13, 2013 - 8:58pm

Gold closed up - yes UP - +16.00 to 1281.40 on moderate volume, while silver was down -0.09 to 20.60 on heavy volume.  The gold silver ratio rose again +1.04 to 62.20.  Today silver was definitely having problems.  After yesterday's move down, silver rallied modestly in asia trading, and then sold off when NY opened, eventually punching through 20.50 support, stopping out a bunch of longs and hitting a new cycle low of 20.41.  It rallied back, but failed to recover its losses on the day.  Gold looked much stronger; even at its low point it was only down a few dollars, and after the NY close gold rallied hard starting at around 1630 EDT regaining all that was lost in yesterday's move down.

So where we stand today - gold appears to be staging a reversal (confirmation required tomorrow, a close above 1286), while silver is not.  One interesting thing: after market close in NY, buyers appeared suddenly at 1630 for gold.  This was clearly some news-driven event.  It is possible this was at the time when Janet Yellen's dovish intended statement for her Senate confirmation hearing was released; various commentators have suggested that there aren't any hints of tapering at all in the statement, which would be gold positive.

Taper, no-taper; without inflation (or hyperinflation!) that's where we are today.  Tapering and the dollar.

The buck tried to rally today and failed; it sold off starting around 1030 EDT, finally closing down -0.36 [-0.45%] to 80.85.  The move was significant, and it is possible we have a reversal in the buck.  Naturally this would be gold-positive.

GDX was up modestly today, trading in a narrow range, closing up +0.55% on light volume.  GDXJ was also up, +1.08% on moderate volume.  I'm calling this another day of accumulation; even with silver's relatively poor performance, most silver miners were up on the day.  I interpret continued miner accumulation as a positive sign.

With GDX under accumulation for a few days now, and gold partway to a reversal, things are looking a bit better.


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