PM Daily Market Commentary - 10/2/2013

By davefairtex on Thu, Oct 3, 2013 - 12:22am

Gold closed up +28.80 to 1316.40 on heavy volume, with silver up +0.57 to 21.74 on moderate volume.  The gold/silver ratio fell for the second day, down -0.27 to 60.57.  In asia gold made a new low of 1276, rebounded, and then rose steadily until early trading in NY where it broke above 1300 and then never looked back.  Gold did not make back all of what it lost yesterday, but silver did; silver is back in its trading range from 21.25-22.25, although silver's 50 day MA seems to be acting as resistance.

Gold and silver appeared to stage the bulk of their rally after an ADP employment report came in under expectations, which occurred at 0815 EST.  Possibly this was more fuel for a No Taper by the Fed.

Moving counter to gold was the dollar, which was down -0.28 [-0.34%] today to 79.99, hitting a new cycle low of 79.88 during intraday trading.  The buck continues to move lower; next support for the buck is at 79.  This move lower should help gold at least somewhat.

Mining shares played their now-familiar trick of rallying in the morning, and then selling off all day once again.  GDX was up +0.33% on moderate volume, GDXJ was up +1.90% on light volume.  Given the brisk rally in the metal, I have to call the miner activity bearish.  Traders are not only unwilling to chase miners higher, they treat most every rally as an opportunity to sell and/or go short.  They'll keep doing this until it stops working.  I'll call this a no-confirmation on yesterday's reversal too.

Silver really needs to close above $22 (the 50 day MA) and preferably $22.25 to get those shorts to start to worry about covering.  It is leading gold right now (shown by the gold/silver ratio starting to fall once again) and so I'm watching it for clues as to where we go next.  Until it can do this, the PM downtrend will remain in place.  Things do look better than they did yesterday for sure, but we are not out of the woods yet.


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mygoldsilver's picture
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Joined: Oct 3 2013
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gold and silver spot prices and percentage change from yesterday
USD Spot Gold /oz $1316.34 +2.11%
NZD Spot Gold /oz $1585.95 +1.74%
USD Spot Silver /oz $21.78 +2.78%
NZD Spot Silver /oz $26.24 +2.41%
USD Spot Silver /kg $700.31  
NZD Spot Silver /kg $843.75  


Gains overnight for both metals with gold shooting higher mid morning in New York trade to a high of $1323.30 before closing lower around $1316.34.

Silver also bolted higher reaching $21.99 before closing lower on $21.78.

Here in New Zealand with the kiwi dollar right on .83 cents vs .8270 yesterday, gold rallied $27 to $1585.95 per ounce while silver gained $19.98 to $843.75 per kilo or in ounces up 62 cents to $26.24 per ounce.

With a strong turn around last night both gold and silver charts appear to be holding a reverse head and shoulders pattern at this stage. Silver is also holding above its solid horizontal support levels.

Todays price for a box of 500 x 1oz Canadian Silver Maples delivered to your door via FedEx, fully insured is $15550 and delivery is now about 10-12 days if imported direct.

Approx cost for 5 x 1kg silver delivered and insured

Local NZ silver 99.9% in 5 x 1kg amounts or more is now available for spot plus 7% plus ingot charge of $13.80 and delivery is about a week away.

So if you’re after 5 x 1kg (160.75oz) today delivered and insured to your door, the cost is around $4602.80 or $28.63 per ounce and ready around a week away.

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